Democracy for New Mexico

Predict the Winner of Nevada Dem Caucus

The Nevada Dem Caucus will be held tomorrow, Saturday, January 19, from Noon to 2:00 PM PST. Who do you think will win? (Pick one.) You have until Noon tomorrow to weigh in. This isn't about which candidate you support, but about the one you think will garner the most votes. Speaking of Dem Caucuses, you have until 5:00 PM Monday, January 21, 2008 to request an absentee (mail-in) ballot for New Mexico's February 5th Caucus. You'll also be able to vote that day from Noon to 7:00 PM at 184 polling places around the state. Click for more info.

Dem Prez Race Heating Up in NM; Last Week to Request Absentee Ballot

With Gov. Bill Richardson out of the race, word is that New Mexico will be getting more attention from the remaining Dem candidates for president. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are expected to visit the state before the NM Caucus on February 5th. No word yet on John Edwards. Dennis Kucinich and his wife, Elizabeth, did some stumping in the state last year, but I haven't heard about any more scheduled visits.

Barack Obama
Obama has opened a campaign office at 1000 Second Street NW, just north of downtown Albuquerque, as well as one in Las Cruces at 212 West Hadley Ave, and plans to open one soon in Santa Fe. You can join the New Mexico for Obama group here and sign up for activities. Upcoming events include canvassing in Albuquerque this coming Saturday at 10:00 AM at the Albuquerque campaign office and a dinner and debate party on January 21 at 5:30 PM at Weck's restaurant at 4500 Osuna NE (advance tickets only, $18).

Hillary Clinton
Clinton's campaign in New Mexico is chaired by Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and will be opening at least one office -- in Albuquerque -- soon. There's no New Mexico group listed yet on her campaign website.

John Edwards
Former Attorney General Patricia Madrid has been fundraising and stumping for Edwards in several states, but that's all I know so far.

Dennis Kucinich
Local Kucinich supporters have their own website and you can also tap in via his . This Saturday there's a get-together with pizza and music from 2:00-4:30 PM at the Cesar Chavez Community Center, 7505 Kathryn SE (Louisiana & Kathryn) in Albuquerque, as well as a "Burma Shave" sign event from 2:00 to 3:00 PM at San Mateo and Central in Albuquerque. On Monday, January 28 there's a Kucinich Rally from 6:30 to 8:30 PM at the Barelas Community Center at 801 Barelas Road SW in Albuquerque with music by musicians from Nevada and Arizona. Contact: Martha at 275-0597.

Voting in the NM Dem Caucus
This is the last week for requesting an absentee (mail-in) ballot for our February 5th Dem Presidential Preference Caucus. If you submit a request by 5:00 PM on January 21, 2008, the Democratic Party of New Mexico will mail you a ballot and you must complete and return it by mail, postmarked by January 28, 2008. You must be a registered Democrat to participate in the Caucus. You can download a request form here and mail, email or fax it to the DPNM. You can also call the DPNM office to have a request form sent to you. Democratic Party of New Mexico: 505-830-3650, 1-800-624-2457 (toll-free), 505-830-3645 (fax), info@nmdemocrats.org (email).

There will be 184 Caucus locations around the state where you can vote in person on February 5th from Noon to 7:00 PM. You can read a FAQ sheet prepared by the DPNM here that explains the Caucus process.

Even though a number of candidates have withdrawn their candidacies, their names will still be on the ballot if they were still in the race as of the filing deadline. You can still vote for them, but your vote won't translate into any delegates at the Democratic Convention in Denver in August.

Two States Down, Forty-Eight to Go

Hillary Clinton's NH victory speech

Yes, two states down and forty-eight to go. That's what Edwards had to say in his concession speech (video) last night in New Hampshire, adding he's in it until the Dem Convention in August. I hope he means it. I think Edwards has been crucial in pushing the other candidates to at least talk a more progressively populist game in terms of issues like health care reform, trade and bucking corporate influence. The longer he stays in the race, the more the issues he raises will get at least some attention, despite the media's obvious reluctance to cover him properly. And you never know -- Clinton or Obama could stumble or damaging facts could emerge that favor a resurgence by Edwards. I'm glad he intends to hang in there. I have to admit, however, that I wish he'd change his stump speech so he isn't saying the same things over and over and over at every single one. Enough about the guy with the cleft palate and the mill town already.

Speaking after the vote, Obama (video) emphasized that a second place finish in NH was still a remarkable achievement, and you can see how energized his supporters are in the crowd despite Hillary's win. This is just the beginning. I don't think his Big Mo will ebb one iota.

Personally, I'm glad we have a competitive race that will stretch at least until the Super Tuesday states, including New Mexico, vote on February 5th -- and maybe even beyond. I want to see voters in as many states as possible have a real say in the Dem nomination, not just Iowa and New Hampshire. I have a hunch this was on the minds of many voters in NH yesterday. With the huge stakes in this election cycle, it's important to see how the candidates deal with victory, defeat and the other ups and downs that come with a longer primary race. I think an endurance race produces a stronger nominee than a sprint.

According to CNN's delegate count, Obama has 25, Clinton 24 and Edwards 18. The magic number for winning the nomination is 2,025, so there's a long way to go, and the top three candidates are still fairly neck and neck in terms of pledged delegates. Time online has an excellent interactive map that tallies the pledged delegates state by state that are allocated based on primary and caucus voting.

This part of CNN's scorecard adds in the so-called Super Delegates -- elected officials and others within the Party who are automatically delegates to the convention by virtue of their positions within the Party. In this count, Clinton has 183, Obama 78, Edwards 52, Richardson 19 and Kucinich 1. The Super Delegates aren't bound to stay with the candidates to whom they've voiced their support at this time and allegiances often change as the race progresses and frontrunners emerge.

Who Voted for Clinton?
Based on exit polling numbers provided by MSNBC, Clinton won big among women, those from families earning less than $50,000 a year, union households and those over 40 years of age. It seems clear that the criticisms of Hillary at the last debate and about her tear up at the coffee shop brought women back into the fold who may have been considering voting for Obama. Obama won Independents and younger voters, but by less than he did in Iowa. I'm still surprised that Edwards isn't getting more lower income and union voters given his economic message. My guess is that it may well be a likeability issue. I, too, can have this problem with him. I strongly support his positions and the focus of his campaign, but I still have a bit of a hard time overcoming my perception of him as a little too slick. I think he can come off as more of a polished salesman than the genuine article.

Up Next
The January 19th Nevada caucus, with 25 delegates at stake, is the next major Dem contest. It was just announced that the much sought after endorsement of the powerful Culinary Workers Union Local 226, with 60,000 members in Nevada, is going to Obama. He also has the endorsement of the Nevada chapter of SEIU, which represents 17,500 health care and county workers in the state. This labor support will provide strong ground support for Obama, and the conventional wisdom is that it makes him the favorite to win Nevada. Both Edwards and Clinton have heavily courted Nevada union members in Nevada, but failed to lock in official endorsements.

The January 15th Michigan primary is actually the next scheduled contest, but the DNC withdrew its recognition when Michigan insisted on moving their date ahead of Nevada's. The DNC has said it will refuse to seat Michigan's delegates at the August convention, although few believe they'll follow through on that. All the Dem candidates except Clinton have announced they won't compete in Michigan so it's likely she'll win the state. If the Dem primary remains close through the summer, this could result in a floor fight over the seating of Michigan's delegates. Same with Florida, which also moved up its primary despite DNC threats to refuse to seat its delegates.

Here's the primary and caucus schedule through Super Tuesday:

January 15: Michigan

January 19: Nevada, South Carolina (Republican)

January 26: South Carolina (Democratic)

January 29: Florida

February 1: Maine (Republican)

February 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Democratic), Illinois, Kansas (Democratic), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (Democratic), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah

Finally: Hawkeye State Caucuses Set for Tomorrow

Gov. Richardson in snowy Iowa*

Has the campaigning leading to tomorrow night's Iowa caucuses been going on for years? Feels like it to me. I imagine it feels even longer to those who've been working the state for so long. If I hear the phrase "latest polling shows" one more time, I may start screeching. Polling, schmolling -- the truth is that nobody really knows what will happen when Iowa Dems (and many Independents) gather in 1,781 precinct meetings across the state to choose a favorite among Democratic presidential candidates. In the last analysis, it's a roll of the dice in many ways.

An optimistic projection of how many will show up to participate in the Dem meetings would equate to about 25% of those eligible, or about 150,000 people. In my view, this relative handful of folks has managed to accumulate way too much clout in designating the front-runners in the race. Iowans obviously don't think so. It must be nice to be courted so carefully by all the candidates, and the state's hotels, restaurants, TV stations and other businesses benefit mightily from the months of campaigning. Unfortunately, as Markos lays out in this post on Daily Kos, the Dem caucus process in Iowa is also very undemocratic and elitist. Not a good way to pick a nominee while the rest of us sit here on our hands.

Viable or Nonviable
Besides turnout, one of the critical factors in determining whether a candidate will have a strong showing is to whom the supporters of "nonviable" candidates will turn as a second choice. If a candidate gets less than 15% or so of those attending a precinct caucus, they're deemed "nonviable" and the candidate won't earn any delegates from that precinct. The supporters of a nonviable candidate can either walk away without their votes counting for a particular candidate, or switch to another candidate who has passed the viability threshhold in that precinct. That's where all the wheeling and dealing comes in, and candidates who have strong organizations at the precinct level can sometimes work wonders in convincing caucus-goers on the spot to pick them for a second choice.

The nonviable candidates in a precinct can also have a powerful influence in the second choices of their supporters. For instance, last time out in Iowa in 2004, Dick Gephardt encouraged many of his supporters to switch to Kerry in precincts where he wasn't viable. Kucinich urged his supporters to go with Edwards. This year, Kucinich has announced that he'd like his voters to move their support to Obama as a second choice. This post on Wampum provides an excellent dissection of how the process works, written by someone who was a convenor at similarly structured caucuses in Portland, Maine in 2004.

Will Richardson Urge Supporters to Pick Hillary as Second Choice?
I'll be very interested to learn where Bill Richardson will point his supporters in precincts where he's not viable. If he urges them to move into the Clinton column, we can surmise that his strongly antiwar strategy may have been waged, at least in part, as a sort of stalking horse effort to gain supporters who might ultimately benefit Hillary. He'd be taking votes from Obama, Edwards and other antiwar candidates if he sends them to Clinton despite her unapologetic vote for an Iraq invasion.

Clinton can use all the second choice votes she can muster. According to a column by Charles Hurt in the New York Post:

Heading into the final day of campaigning before Iowa votes tomorrow, Hillary Rodham Clinton still faces one of her thorniest problems in her bid for the White House. Although she has a considerable base of devoted fans in Iowa, she is not well liked by those Democrats supporting other candidates.

Of the other Democrats who plan to caucus tomorrow and vote for other candidates, Clinton is the second choice of just 15 percent, according to a new poll. Barack Obama is the second choice of 22 percent and John Edwards is the second choice of 30 percent of Iowa Democrats, according to the Reuters poll.

If Richardson should decide to urge his supporters in his nonviable precincts to support Clinton -- and they follow his recommendation -- he could become a sort of kingmaker in terms of bolstering Clinton's numbers. We all know how close Richardson has been to the Clintons during the course of his career in Washington. Bartering at the precinct level might also help Richardson's chances for being selected as Hillary's VP candidate, or of earning a plum appointment should Hillary become our next President. Definitely something to watch for if the Richardson campaign's predictions of a surprisingly strong showing for their candidate turn out to be just wishful thinking.

Small and Large Precincts Can Have Similar Clout
Another oddity in the Iowa Democratic caucuses is that it's beneficial to have support throughout the state's 99 counties and 1,781 precincts. Because of a complicated system used for apportioning delegates, a candidate gets no extra benefit from overwhelming support in a given precinct. In other words, caucus meetings with few participants in rural parts of the state can sometimes wield about as much clout in terms of delegates earned as larger urban caucuses with many more attendees.

Something to keep in mind: No candidate finishing worse than third in the Iowa caucuses has ever gone on to win their party's nomination. One thing is certain -- Gov. Bill Richardson and his supporters have worked their butts off in Iowa. We'll finally get to find out what all those hours of sweat equity will bring on what's forecast to be a bitterly cold winter's night in Iowa.

*Photo of Bill Richardson by David Negrete. Click on image for larger version.

Tonight on We The People: DPNM Chairman Brian Colon

Happy New Year from WE THE PEOPLE
Guest: Brian Colon, Chairman, Democratic Party of NM
Watch - Think - Call-in! (505) 346-1633
New Day & Time: Channel 27, Wednesday, January 2nd, 6 PM

Not a cable subscriber?  Watch simultaneously on your  high-speed computer: https://www.quote-unquote.org. Click for Channel 27s Media Stream ---> down the page on the Right. WE THE PEOPLE is an innovative call-in television show looking for TRUTH and TRANSPARENCY in local, state, and federal governments.

THANKS FOR WATCHING
Mickey Bock, Host; Judith Binder, Producer

Final Observances Announced for Sen. Ben Altamirano

From the office of the New Mexico Senate Democrats:
Santa Fe, NM—Details of the official observances in the State Capitol Rotunda in Santa Fe and public services in Silver City for Senate President Pro Tempore Ben D. Altamirano (D-Catron, Grant & Socorro-28) were released today. Senator Altamirano died suddenly and unexpectedly on Thursday evening, December 27th, at his family home in Silver City.

Senator Altamirano’s body will lie in state for public viewing beginning at 8:30 AM and ending at 5:00 PM on Monday, December 31, 2007 at the State Capitol Rotunda in Santa Fe. A memorial service honoring Senator Altamirano will commence at 11:00 AM on Monday. Speakers that day will include Senate majority and minority leaders, Barbara Richardson, New Mexico’s First Lady, Diane Denish, New Mexico’s Lieutenant Governor who is acting Governor in the absence of Governor Bill Richardson, majority and minority leaders of the New Mexico House of Representatives and other leading public officials.

Members of Senator Altamirano’s immediate family will be present for the memorial service. “We invite the people of New Mexico to come pay their last respects to this great leader and legislator,” said Senator Michael S. Sanchez (D-Valencia-29), the Senate Majority Leader.

On Wednesday, January 2, 2008, the public may pay their respects from 10:00 AM to 4:00 PM at Bright Funeral Home, 210 W. College Ave., Silver City, New Mexico. A Rosary will then be recited at 7:00 PM that evening at St. Vincent de Paul Catholic Church, 420 W. Market Street, Silver City, New Mexico – which was Senator Altamirano’s parish church. The funeral mass will take place at 10:00 AM on Thursday, January 3, 2008, also at St. Vincent de Paul Catholic Church. Internment will follow at Memory Lane Cemetary, Memory Lane Road, Silver City.

Flowers and messages may be sent to the family home at 1123 Santa Rita Street, Silver City, New Mexico 88061. The family has requested that memorial gifts in Senator Altamirano’s honor be sent to the New Mexico Heart Association, 2201 San Pedro, NE, Building 2, Suite 102, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87110. The Association may also be contacted at 505-353-5800.

See our previous post on the passing of Sen. Ben Altamirano.

(Updated) R.I.P. State Senator Ben Altamirano: 1930-2007

Senator Ben. D. Altamirano:
October 17, 1930 - December 27, 2007

UPDATE 12.29.07: See our subsequent post for details about final observances to honor Sen. Altamirano.
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Ben Altamirano, the New Mexico Legislature's Senate President Pro-Tem, passed away Thursday at his home in Silver City at the age of 77 after a heart attack. In recent years he had suffered with coronary problems and underwent surgery. He was also hospitalized in 1981 after suffering a heart attack. According to an AP article, Gov. Bill Richardson made the announcement late Thursday, saying Altamirano was a true statesman whose love for New Mexico helped him earn the respect of everyone who crossed his path.

"I am deeply saddened by the passing of a great New Mexican and my dear friend, Benny Altamirano. ... Benny will be dearly missed," Richardson said.

Click to read a statement (pdf) released this afternoon by Senate Majority Leader Michael S. Sanchez on behalf of the New Mexico Democratic Senators. An update on funeral arrangements is expected to be available soon at the New Mexico Senate Democrats website.

According to a report by KRQE News:

Senate Majority Whip Mary Jane Garcia of Doña Ana saw him last week when Democrats caucused in advance of the opening of the Legislature on Jan. 15.

"He looked so healthy and so happy looking forward to the holidays," she told KRQE News 13. "We were visiting and chit-chatting.

"Then he was in caucus, and there we were discussing the healthcare initiatives that are going to come before the session. He's always been a kind of peacemaker working with both sides of the aisle."

Senator Altamirano, a prominent Democrat, represented District 28 encompassing most of Catron, Grants and Soccoro Counties since 1971, and was the longest serving member of the New Mexico Legislature. For 17 of those years he held the powerful post of Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. Over the years he served on Senate Committees dealing with public school appropriations, capital outlay funding and conservation. For the last three years he was President Pro-Tem, following Democrat Richard Romero in that post.

Governor Richardson will appoint a replacement Senator from among a list of nominees recommended by the county commissions in the three counties represented in District 28.

Altamirano worked in insurance and retail outside the Legislature and unsuccessfully ran for lieutenant governor in 1994. He was one of four Democratic candidates that year in a primary election race won by Patricia Madrid.

Born in Silver City on Oct. 17, 1930, Sen. Altamirano enlisted in the United States Army in 1946 and served with the European occupation forces during World War II. Upon returning to Grant County, he attended Western New Mexico University. He served as a Grant County commisssioner from 1966 to 1970 and a city councilor in Silver City from 1960 to 1970 before he got elected to the Legislature. For 40 years Altamirano also owned several grocery stores.

He is survived by his wife, Nina Melendez; his two sons, Ben Jr. and Paul; and daughter, Yolanda Manzano.

Democratic Women of Sandoval County to Host CD1 Candidate Forum

NM-01 Candidate Forum
Meet the Congressional District 1 Candidates
Sponsored by
Democratic Women of Sandoval County

You are invited to a candidate forum featuring the Democratic candidates for House of Representatives District 1

Michelle Grisham
Martin Heinrich
Robert Pidcock Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008, 7:00 PM
Town Council Chambers, Town of Bernalillo City Hall
829 Camino del Pueblo, Bernalillo

The public is invited to attend. Come get acquainted with your candidates. Questions and answers will follow the candidate presentations. Refreshments will be served.
*********************************
DWSC Regular Meeting
Wednesday January 2, 2008, 6:30 PM
Social time at 6 PM

The agenda for this meeting includes the election of officers for this coming year and reports by all our committees. Please attend if you possibly can. Please note the earlier meeting time. Our meetings are always open to the public. Come join our club. Bring your neighbors and friends. We welcome visitors and new members. For more information: Janice Saxton 867-1139 or jnjsaxton@msn.com.

Kucinich Joins New Mexico Caucus Candidates

From the Democratic Party of New Mexico:
Registered Democrats in the State of New Mexico have one more choice for the February 5th Presidential Preference Caucus. Congressman filed this morning to join Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Chris Dodd, Senator John Edwards, and Senator Barack Obama on the New Mexico ballot.

Kucinich chose to file a signed statement of candidacy and pay a filing fee of $2,500 to the DPNM rather than filing a petition of five thousand (5,000) signatures of registered Democrats from the State of New Mexico.

“The Democratic Party of New Mexico is happy to welcome Congressman Kucinich to the Caucus ballot,” said Chairman of the Democratic Party of New Mexico, Brian S. Colón. “The Presidential Preference Caucus will be fully funded and administered by the DPNM at no cost to New Mexico’s taxpayers. Our party is proud to offer as many choices to voters as possible.”

Important Dates
The DPNM has so far received hundreds of requests for absentee ballots, many of which are from members of the military and other New Mexicans living or working abroad. Request forms are currently available for download at www.nmdemocrats.org or by calling the DPNM to have one e-mailed, faxed or mailed. Requests for absentee ballots will be accepted through January 21st, 2008. The DPNM will send out absentee ballots beginning January 12th, 2008. To vote in the Caucus, either by absentee or in person, voters must be registered as Democrat by next Friday, January 4th, 2008.

The Presidential Preference Caucus is a statewide election conducted on February 5th, 2008 for the purpose of voting for the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. The results of this election will be used to determine New Mexico’s allocation of delegates among the Democratic Presidential Candidates to the Democratic National Convention in August 2008. There will be a total of 184 Caucus sites statewide on February 5th, 2008 run by DPNM staff and volunteers.

To volunteer or donate to the Presidential Preference Caucus e-mail info@nmdemocrats.org  or call 505-830-3650.

DCCC Will Target at Least 40 Seats Including NM-01 and NM-02

According to a Roll Call interview with Chris Van Hollen, who heads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the group plans to target at least 40 seats in 2008 that have been held by Republicans. Swing State Project has the list and it includes New Mexico's First and Second Congressional Districts. Quote:

Overall, the DCCC is targeting 40 Republican-held seats in 2008 — both open seats and those where the incumbent is running for re-election, Van Hollen confirmed. Van Hollen acknowledged that the DCCC’s continuing wide cash advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee was a key factor in his decision to shift his focus to aiding Democratic challengers.

"We don’t have to spend all of our time worrying about what the Republican committee is going to be able to throw at our incumbents. There’s no doubt that allows us some flexibility," Van Hollen told Roll Call. "It has given us some room to maneuver. Definitely."

Last week, Al Gore sent out a message to Democrats urging them to donate to the DCCC's Year End Challenge, where contributions will be matched and doubled by Dem House members.

First District
In NM-01 in the Albuquerque area, where Repub Rep. Heather Wilson is giving up her seat to run for U.S. Senate, the current contenders are:

• Democrats
  • Martin Heinrich, former Albuquerque City Councilor who's on a leave of absence from his job as Natural Resources Trustee with the State
  • Michelle Lujan Grisham, former Secretary of the New Mexico Public Health Department
• Republicans
  • Darren White, Bernalillo County Sheriff
  • Joe Carraro, State Senator

Second District
In NM-02 in the southern part of the state, here are the current candidates for the vacancy created by Republican Rep. Steve Pearce's entry into the U.S. Senate race:

• Democrats
  • Bill McCamley, Dona Ana County Commissioner
  • Joseph Cervantes, State Representative
  • Al Kissling, retired Presbyterian minister
  • Harry Teague, former Lea County Commissioner
  • , retired teacher, current businessman
• Republicans
  • Ed Tinsely, owner of K-Bob's Steakhouse restaurant-chain, rancher
  • Aubrey L. Dunn, Jr., retired banker, current rancher
  • Bob Cornelius, former Executive Director of the Bernalillo County Republican Party
  • Greg Sowards, owner of Las Cruces daycare centers

In order to get on a Party's June 3, 2008 Congressional primary ballot, a candidate must garner the votes of at least 20% of the delegates to the Party's pre-primary convention to be held this Spring.