Democracy for New Mexico

This Just In: Richardson Will Run for Prez (Debunked)

Not unexpected, but still news or at least Faux News: According to a Fox News story, Gov. Bill Richardson WILL run for president in 2008:

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is expected to formally file papers to form a presidential exploratory committee in January. But today he told FOX News "I am running," as he described the professional and personal experiences that he believes have prepared him for the job.

He also gave a speech on comprehensive immigration reform today, something one might expect a presidential candidate to do. Let's see how much buzz the Fox item produces....

UPDATE: Ah, but wait, now kos sez the Richardson camp is calling the Fox report a lie. Video to come at kos. Also, a new Albuquerque Tribune article contains the denial. Either way, more media coverage for Richardson.

UPDATE #2, 12/8: Faux News clearly twisted the facts on this one, but the Richardson denial story garnered a front page headline in the Albuquerque Journal this morning.

The Disappearing Recount in NM-01 and What We Can Do About It

Despite statements all over the media by DPNM Chair John Wertheim that the Party planned to pursue a 2% audit recount of the Patricia Madrid - Heather Wilson congressional race, yesterday's deadline came and went with nothing filed. Another lost opportunity to gauge the accuracy of our new paper ballot - optical scanner system.

Legal Fog
I understand that the State Party got bogged down in trying to decipher the meaning of New Mexico's election law pertaining to recounts, who can legally request them and what limitations apply to the process. There was reportedly much concern that their request -- even if they got a power of attorney declaration from Madrid -- wouldn't be allowed because Madrid had officially conceded. It appears that only candidates themselves can formally request recounts, and only if they believe an error in the tally would be large enough to change who won. Regardless, I'm not sure how supportive the Madrid camp was about seeking any kind of recount, which is a shame considering how many people worked their butts off and dug deep into their pockets to try and get her elected. In a race this close, I think she owed us one.

Madrid Following the Kerry Strategy?
Even if Madrid thought a complete recount would be quixotic, I think the least she could have done was request a limited recount before conceding to see how our new voting system performed. This would no doubt have garnered much positive press and good will for her here and nationally. Instead she apparently bought into the handler notion that requesting a recount in a race decided by 862 voters would somehow tarnish her chances to run again in the future. Remember Kerry and his cave-in on similar grounds in the 2004 prez election? It's hard to calculate just how much negative reaction that decision provoked against Kerry with Dem voters. Sadly, Madrid seems to be following in his misbegotten footsteps.

Money, Money, Money
It's instructive to ponder how tens of thousands of dollars were raised by the netroots in record time to support Dem candidate Christine Jennings' efforts to get all the votes counted in Florida's CD-13. In that race, more than 18,000 votes were "lost" by the electronic machines in a contest decided by only 369 votes. Surely the Madrid campaign could have raised whatever funds were necessary to pay for a full recount in a race decided by less than half a percentage point, let alone a much cheaper limited recount to audit how accurately our scanners counted the votes from the paper ballots. With so much passionate activism going on in the area of election reform, adequate funds could have been raised in no time by the Madrid camp via small donations. But then, we'll never really know, will we?

Mary Herrera Our Last Chance?
The only remaining opportunity for checking the system apparently would be in the form of an unofficial, "educational" audit of 2% of the NM-01 precincts, to which current Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera reportedly agreed prior to the election. I haven't heard a peep from Herrera on this score since the election was certified, have you? I suggest we might encourage action on this front by emailing or calling Herrera and urging her to follow through on her promise. Be polite, but assertive. The DPNM is reportedly looking into how they might support such an effort, and perhaps even contribute funding for it. I hope this is the case and we can at least get a snapshot of how well the new voting system operated.

Denish Proposal for Automatic Recount
The good news is that Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, along with NM State Senators Dede Feldman and Gerald Ortiz y Pino, announced support for passage of legislation this coming January to require a recount whenever the margin in an election falls below .5%, as it did in the Madrid-Wilson race. The proposal would also create a funding mechanism for paying for these mandatory recounts, perhaps by instituting a registration fee for all candidates to be held in a recount pool.

Given the DPNM's discovery of just how vague our law is in terms of recounts, I hope the scope of this recount bill will be widened to include a clean-up of all the legal language currently in force regarding recounts. The election reform community will also be pushing for legislation that would require same day voter registration, tighten the automatic audit provisions that will kick in for the 2007 election cycle and other fine tuning of our election laws. I think it's imperative that we gear up now to actively support these improvements when the 60-day legislative session kicks off on January 16th.

In Search of Certified Results
This might also be a good time to ask why the certified precinct by precinct results of the November election are not yet up on the Secretary of State's website. Once the numbers are certified, I don't understand why there would be any delay in transferring the numbers to the SOS website and letting the public in on the detailed reporting.

Generation Dem

More good news for Dems: voters under 30 supported Democrats by significant margins in the November election. According to an article examining 2006 election trends by Sidney Blumenthal, "the momentous 2006 elections signaled the emergence of a younger, bluer America that could reshape politics for years to come. Blumenthal describes a "younger generation that is overwhelmingly Democratic." Tidbits:

While voters under 30 were the most favorable age group in 2004 for Kerry, casting 54 percent of their votes for him, Democratic House candidates in 2006 received 60 percent of their votes, compared with 38 percent for Republicans.

Nationally, partisan identification breaks 38 percent Democratic to 35 percent Republican, but among those under age 30 the percentages are 43 to 31 in favor of Democrats. This pattern runs as strongly in the West as in the East, the Midwest and the Pacific states, a clear indication that the Western states are heading out of the Republican camp -- out of alliance with the deep South's Republican states and into coalition with the broad majority.

In Wyoming and Arizona, where Republicans won elections for the House and Senate, the Democrats would have won by 16 and 15 points, respectively, if the elections had been conducted only among under-30s. In Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester won by 1 percentage point, fewer than 3,000 votes, his margin among under-30s, who were 17 percent of the electorate, was 12 points.

Bush has been the formative political experience for the youngest generation of voters, those 18 to 30. Studies of voting preferences show that the experience imprinted on a generation in its 20s largely determines its future political complexion. This generation is the most Democratic generation ever -- more Democratic than the youngest voting generations of the New Deal and the 1960s.

Blumenthal also analyzes demographic data generally and in other categories. His findings are strongly positive for Dems almost across the board. Excerpts:

Exit polls showed that the Democrats won the popular vote by 52 to 46 percent. Given that Bush won the popular vote by 3 points in 2004, this was a reversal of not 6 but 9 points. An analysis of the actual popular vote for the Senate, however, reveals an even greater Democratic margin of 55 to 42.4 percent. That number also coincidentally corresponds to the margin by which Democrats won women, the greatest margin since 1988. Yet Democrats won independents by an even bigger margin, 18 points, the greatest spread in House races in 25 years. The profile of independents on issue after issue now mostly resembles the profile of Democrats.

One of the largest shifts appeared among Hispanics, the group that Rove targeted most intensively for six years. In 2006, Hispanics went for the Democrats 69 to 30 percent, a 10-point increase in the spread from two years ago. Unpopular as Bush may be today, he has been the most accessible Republican to Hispanics ever, a Spanish speaker from a state with a large Hispanic population. Next time, in 2008, the Republicans do not have a potential candidate who can remotely approach Bush's appeal.

The dramatic turnover of both the House and the Senate should not obscure the profound transformations going on in the states, where 10 state legislative chambers switched to the Democrats, and, as political analyst Charlie Cook points out in the National Journal, "the Democratic advantage over Republicans in state legislatures went from 15 seats (3,650 versus 3,635) to 662 seats (3,985 versus 3,323), with gains in every region.

There's certainly much to celebrate in the 2006 election results. Just think how much more we can improve our chances for victory in 2008 and beyond IF Dems across the nation take the reins and dedicate themselves to representing ordinary people and the core Democratic values of fairness, opportunity for all, common sense and the common good. More and more Americans -- particularly younger voters -- have caught on to the lies and manipulations employed by rightwing Repubs to try and fool all of the people all of the time. Clearly, the Dem Party needs to accellerate outreach to younger voters and take full advantage of the trend building for a Generation Dem. Let's hope DNC Chair Howard Dean's 50-state strategy places a strong emphasis on reaching out to young voters.

Republicans Explain What Happened

Click on image for larger version or click here for source.

Of course New Mexico Democrats have some explaining to do ourselves. It's frustrating, to say the least, to witness the defeat of NM-01 congressional candidate Patricia Madrid despite the incredibly low poll numbers for Bush, the Republican Congress and the Iraq occupation. It's equally confusing to ponder the loss of long-time environmental champion Jim Baca in the land commissioner race to a guy who took almost a million dollars from big donors in the oil and gas industries. How could voters who overwhelmingly support land preservation, alternative energy and green ecological strategies help elect Pat Lyons, who is in-your-face opposed to these approaches? Inquiring minds want to know.

UPDATED: Madrid Concedes

UPDATED HERE AND BELOW: The Patricia Madrid campaign held a press conference at DPNM headquarters in Albuquerque this morning and conceded victory to Heather Wilson. No recount will be requested. According to a report on the Albuquerque Journal website, Madrid won't ask for a recount but the Democratic Party of NM may ask for a limited hand tally:

But state Democratic Party Chairman John Wertheim said he still is considering asking for a hand tally of 2 percent of ballots in the district's precincts to test the accuracy of the new optical scan tabulators.

Madrid, New Mexico's attorney general, said she decided against a recount because she felt it would not change the outcome of the election.

After the final canvass found several small errors, vote totals in the NM-01 congressional race between Dem challenger Patricia Madrid and Repub incumbent Heather Wilson were as follows:

Wilson: 105,921
Madrid: 105,046

The final margin was 875 votes among approximately 211,000 ballots cast, or under 0.5%.

ANOTHER UPDATE 11:52 AM: According to the Albuquerque Tribune:

Democrat Patricia Madrid, defeated by incumbent Republican Heather Wilson in the 1st Congressional District, conceded Tuesday, saying a recount would cost too much and there was no guarantee it would change anything.

She said the cost of a full recount could be as high as $250,000 to $300,000 across the 1st district, which includes parts of five counties, and that the Democrats didn't have enough money.

She also said there is no evidence a recount would reverse the outcome of the election.

Madrid said Wilson's margin was less than one-half of 1 percent, which in other states might have resulted in an automatic recount, but said the cost in New Mexico was prohibitive.

"If only one person in each precinct had voted for me instead of my opponent, I would have prevailed," Madrid said.

UPDATE 2:53 PM: A new Albuquerque Tribune article quotes Madrid on her future in politics. Excerpt:

"Whatever I do, if I look at it, will very likely be a statewide race," she said.

"Certainly, I don't ever want to run for attorney general again, because I don't believe in going backwards in your life," Madrid said. "But there are only two statewide races that I think would be higher and that's, of course, governor and Senate."

Asked whether voters can expect to see her on a ticket in 2010 with Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, Madrid replied: "I won't say in what order."

The article also quotes Madrid on why she may have lost:

Madrid also attributed her loss, in part, to being outspent.

"That buys a daily barrage of negative advertising to your mailbox, daily on the television. Go back and look at how much more television she had than I did, how much more mail-outs she did, how much more field operation is funded. It simply comes back to money."

... What could Madrid have done better?

"Started earlier, raised more money, not been so timid on my last debate," she said. "I think I did well in my first debate, but I don't think that was the defining moment."

NM-01 Unofficial Tally: Wilson by 879 Votes

According to the Albuquerque Tribune, the canvassing in NM-01's congressional race between Dem challenger Patricia Madrid and Repub incumbent Heather Wilson is due to be officially finalized sometime today. The last unofficial tally showed a win for Wilson by a mere 879 votes among the 210,953 cast, or less than half a percentage point. Wilson got a total of 105,916 votes to Madrid's 105,037. This race was so close that a switch from Wilson to Madrid of only 440 voters who cast their ballots would have made Madrid the victor. That's approximately one vote per precinct.

Check out what Jerry Ortiz y Pino has to say about some of the possible reasons for the Madrid loss. He speaks for me, at least on one aspect of the campaign -- getting Dem absentee ballots returned to the County Clerk. Rocket science, no. Simple common sense, yes. It's hard to believe that campaign organizers couldn't get at least some of the more than 7000 Dems who had absentees sent to them and failed to return them to do so before the deadline. As Ortiz y Pino says, it wouldn't have cost a dime.

Meanwhile, the Madrid campaign hasn't yet conceded and there's still some talk of requesting a recount, depending on what DPNM Chair John Wertheim and Madrid decide. A complete recount would cost approximately $30,000 according to the Bernalillo County Clerk. Unlike many other states, where automatic recounts are conducted and paid for by the state if vote differences are under a certain margin, those requesting a recount in NM-01 would have to bear the cost. If the recount resulted in a change in the winner or election fraud was discovered, that money would be refunded.

Dems Have Early Voting Edge in NM-01

Local blog New Mexico Matters has a spreadsheet that shows early voting turnout through November 1st for New Mexico's first congressional district, the Albuquerque-centered district where Dem challenger Patricia Madrid is taking on Repub incumbent Rep. Heather Wilson. Totals of votes cast to date, which include both absentee (mail-in) ballots returned by voters and in-person early voting around the Congressional district:

Registion	Voters	Percentage
Declined to State	4,940	7.4
Democratic	32,730	48.8
Independent	760	1.1
Republican	28,594	42.6
GRAND TOTAL:	67,060	100.0

Of course we want this trend to continue as turnout may well be THE major factor in who wins this race. Today is is the last day for early voting, which ends at 6:00 PM at 13 locations in the Albuquerque area. More info. The deadline for requesting an absentee ballot was yesterday. According to the NM Secretary of State absentee ballots must be returned to the county clerk or the voter's precinct before 7:00 PM on Election Day to be counted.

Saturday in Santa Fe: Gary King's Frito Pie Fiesta!

Click for flyer (PDF) for all the details!

NM Dem Whistle Stop Tour Set for Sunday

Above: ABQ Mayor Chavez, Lt. Gov. Denish, State Auditor candidate Hector Balderas, Gov. Richardson and Sen. Bingman at last night's rally with Bill Clinton

It's time for change! This Sunday, November 5, the Democratic Victory Train will stop in Las Cruces, Hatch, Socorro, Belen, Albuquerque, Bernalillo and Las Vegas, NM. Come out and rally with Governor Richardson and the Democratic Statewide Ticket. Read all about it at the Gov. Richardson campaign's blog, The Plaza. Make sure your sound is on before you head over there....

Video Clips: Bill Clinton Speaking at Madrid Rally

Below the fold: video clips of Bill Clinton speaking at the Patricia Madrid GOTV rally in Albuquerque on the evening of Thursday, 11.2.06:

Bush-Repub campaign style

More terrorists, not less

All clips by Mary Ellen using her little digital still camera on vid mode.