Spinning the PPP Polls on Senate Dem Primary: Balderas v. Heinrich

As we reported yesterday, results of a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey on the Senate primary races in New Mexico have Martin Heinrich leading Hector Balderas by a margin of 47-24% in the early going on the Dem side. PPP commented that this was probably due to Heinrich being "bolstered by greater name recognition."

In response to the polling, the Balderas campaign released a memo from the Benenson Strategy Group, its Washington DC campaign strategist, stressing that the race is likely to tighten as more Democrats become get to know Balderas:

Heinrich holds a 23% advantage over Balderas on the primary ballot. However, almost a third of the electorate (29%) remains undecided and Heinrich holds a similar 25% advantage over Balderas in name ID. This suggests Heinrich’s support is built largely on name ID, and that Heinrich’s lead on the ballots can be expected to tighten as more voters become familiar with Hector Balderas. This is often the case in races where one candidate holds a large lead in name ID. In July 2007, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama in Democratic Primary polls by 17 points, largely on the strength of better name ID. As voters became better-acquainted with Obama, the polls tightened considerably. 

... According to the Public Policy Polling primary election poll, Heinrich has a 25% name ID advantage over Balderas: 73% of voters can identify Heinrich while 48% can identify Balderas, suggesting Balderas has more room to increase his vote as voters become more familiar with him. 

The Benenson memo also comments on the results of another PPP poll, released Tuesday, pitting the GOP candidates against the Dem candidates for Senate, saying it:

 ... shows New Mexico State Auditor Hector Balderas and Congressman Martin Heinrich holding similar leads over potential 2012 Republican opponents, despite Heinrich’s almost 30% name ID advantage. Further, Heinrich appears to be weakening against current GOP frontrunner and former Congresswoman Heather Wilson. 

... Congressman Heinrich’s lead over Wilson has been cut in half since the last Public Policy Polling survey in February 2011, dropping from 11% to 5%. 

This race continues to garner national attention with POLITICO today ranking it as number 7 in its list of most competitive Senate races, and claiming that Balderas won the month:

7. NEW MEXICO (Up 1 spot) — New Mexico leapfrogs Ohio after a Public Policy Polling survey showed both former Rep. Heather Wilson and Lt. Gov. John Sanchez within single digits of their potential Democratic opponents. Rep. Martin Heinrich and state auditor Hector Balderas showed comparable strength, presenting a difficult decision for a party eager to place more Hispanic faces at the top of the ticket. A subtle signal of the importance of Latinos: After indicating it was on the verge of backing Heinrich, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it will remain neutral. On the margins, neutrality is a win for Balderas. So far, he and Heinrich have been playing nice, while Wilson and Sanchez duke it out over who is a more genuine conservative.

Who won June: Balderas

Latest poll:
Balderas 45%
Wilson 39%
Source: Public Policy Polling, June 23-26, 732 voters

Bottom line: Show Me the Money
This is very early polling conducted way before ordinary voters start paying attention. However, it does provide some data that can serve as base marks when additional polling is done as the race progresses.

Rather than relying on these very preliminary polling results, perhaps the most telling way to judge the early standing of the candidates in this race will be to look at how the fundraising is going. The FEC quarter ended on June 30th, and results will be reported by July 15th. While it's important that both Heinrich and Balderas show strong early numbers, it's always considered vital that candidates new to congressional race contests show early on that they can raise the kind of money necessary to run a successful campaign at that level. Stay tuned.