NM Guv Race Polling: Voters Moving Away From Martinez, Race Now Even!

Big turnout for Denish at Laguna Pueblo this morning

This is almost entirely a turnout contest now -- it is ESSENTIAL that we all and then volunteer for the Denish campaign as much as possible before November 2nd, and also on election day itself to get out the vote! See below for ways to get involved.

A poll of likely voters in the New Mexico governor race conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner from October 20-24 shows that voters have shifted away from Susana Martinez and the race is now essentially tied -- with Diane Denish at 45% and Susana Martinez at 46%. The survey of 603 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, so this is definitely anyone's race going into the home stretch. 

The polling memo shows the gap has closed and Democrats are consolidating behind Denish, with overall Democratic support at 84-11 and support among Hispanic Democrats at 83-11. Denish has moved from 5 points back earlier on to 3 points to just 1 point in the latest polling -- showing momentum for Denish as we head into the last days the campaign.

Oren Shur of the Denish campaign believes the race has tightened for several reasons, and I certainly concur:

• An onslaught of television and radio ads that raise the stakes for New Mexico voters -- showing Denish to be a fighter for New Mexico families, and exposing Susana Martinez’s agenda to protect loopholes for powerful corporations that will force her to cut critical services like education, Medicaid or public safety. We believe this message is not only resonating with persuadable voters, but also energizing the base. Democrats are clearly coming home.

• Denish delivered two strong TV debate performances in the past week. In each debate, Denish drove news coverage by confronting Martinez directly on instances where she has put powerful interests ahead of New Mexico families. In the first debate, Denish got Martinez to admit she’d protect a tax loophole that lets big, out-of-state corporations save $70 million a year at the expense of New Mexico families. In the most recent TV debate, Denish confronted Martinez with an invitation to a Martinez fundraiser with predatory lenders and their lobbyists -- where a lobbyist wrote that Martinez promised predatory lenders that they can continue doing business as usual, while Denish would shut them down. Martinez was unable to respond during the debate and the moment drove news coverage of the debate.

• In coordination with Vote New Mexico and the statewide ticket, the Democratic ground game is at an unprecedented level of strength for an off-year election. The coordinated campaign has already signed-up 21,000 infrequent Democratic voters to vote-by-mail, knocked on over 150,000 doors and put together a robust canvass/phone bank operation in every key region of the state. More than one-third of Democrats who have voted early are occasional/Obama surge voters, a number we believe to be very encouraging.

This field effort was bolstered by President Clinton’s visit two weeks ago, which helped energize the base. Denish has been considerably more visible these past few weeks than Martinez -- holding more than 25 Early Vote rallies, with many more to come in the closing days.

The gap has closed in this race and as Election Day approaches, we believe more New Mexicans will view Martinez as a typical Republican politician who will side with the big corporations, not their families.

Over the last two weeks, Susana Martinez has essentially been hiding out except for private events and the last debate. Why? The more voters see and hear her in action, the more they learn about her empty promises, lack of solid proposals and subservience to moneyed interests. Now we have to help Diane seal the deal!

GET INVOLVED NOW: Click for a list of Denish office locations and phone numbers.

Phonebanks are going every-night from 4:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. from Sundays to Thursdays and anytime during the day seven days a week. Door knockers are needed all day long through Election Day. Get involved now! This race could come down to a very small margin and WE can make the difference!