Dueling Polls in NM Governor Race Show Dead Heat or Denish 6 Points Back

Denish was at Chile Cookoff and Grand Opening of her San Juan County office, and the Shiprock Parade this weekend

As you've probably seen by now, the latest Albuquerque Journal poll on the New Mexico governor's race has Republican Susana Martinez ahead with support from 47% of those surveyed to 41% for Democrat . However, a hefty 12% were still undecided about which candidate to support if the election were held at the time of the September 27-30 poll, which has a margin of error of ± 3.0%. A total of 941 registered, likely voters across New Mexico were contacted in telephone interviews.

Brian Sanderoff, who conducted the Journal poll, said the race basically comes down to turnout: "Midterm elections, such as this year's, historically have lower turnouts than presidential elections and that means Denish could lose some support from Democratic voters, who outnumber Republicans and independents in New Mexico, if they don't turn out."  

But wait, the results of for the Denish campaign -- conducted during the same time period as the Journal poll-- has the race in a dead heat for the second week in a row, with Martinez at 46% and Denish at 45%, with 8% undecided. Third Eye surveyed 600 New Mexicans who voted in 2008 or registered since then. Their phone survey was conducted from Tuesday, September 28th, through Thursday, September 30th, and has a margin of error of ± 4.0%. According to the polling memo:

While Martinez continues to dominate with registered Republicans (92%), she garners support from just 10% of registered Democrats and 28% of Hispanics. DTS voters are split – 36% for Martinez, 32% for Denish – with 31% undecided. Also, while Martinez leads in the southern part of the state 53% to 41%, Denish leads in the northern counties by a 51%-39% margin. Voters in the central part of the state split evenly (46% Martinez, 45% Denish).

... At this point in the race, Diane Denish has garnered a level of support from Democrats that will keep this race competitive to the end. In the absence of an overwhelming turnout by registered Republicans, this race will come down to late deciding Independent voters who are currently in play for both sides.

An email to Denish supporters today from Ted F. Martinez, who chairs the campaign, had this to say, in part:

There's a lot of campaigning to go ... but to get it done we must out-work our opponent each and every day from now until November 2. [emphasis added]

... So what does all this mean? It means there is a volatile electorate and opinions are shifting on a daily basis. [emphasis added]

Big crowds in McKinley County this weekend for Denish

What's not shifting is Diane Denish and Brian Colón's commitment to New Mexico families.

They know times are tough and they are the only ones talking about what matters to New Mexicans - jobs, protecting public schools and fighting against economic predators like payday lenders and insurance companies who would seek to jack up rates during this difficult economy.

Susana Martinez? Well, she's offering the same old failed Republican policies that got us into this mess - no accountability for powerful interests, roll-backs of basic protections of our air and water, and a scheme to drain public dollars from classrooms and ship them to wealthy private schools.

So, while the polls continue to be all over the place, Diane Denish's commitment to New Mexicans will not waver.

And that's what matters in this election.

To win, we're going to need you to get involved. Our campaign is going to need thousands of Election Day volunteers -- so to see a list of offices. Call the office nearest you to make the pledge to take Election Day off and work to get Diane and Brian over the top.

Bottom line: We can win this race IF we all pull together and work to get Democrats out to vote for the Democratic ticket. As the email above says, , November 2nd. And in the meantime, contact any of to sign up to volunteer to phone bank, canvass door to door, do data entry or another of the myriad of tasks that can make or break a campaign.

We have fewer than 30 days until election day. If you don't want to see New Mexico ruined at the hands of the bought-off Susana La Tejana, now is the time to put up or shut up.