ABQ Journal Poll: Martinez Lead Vs. Denish Shrinks to 5-6 Points from Leaked Statewide Poll of Mid-August

The first Albuquerque Journal governor's race poll of the 2010 election season was released today and shows the GOP's Susana Martinez leading Dem Diane Denish by 6 percentage points, 45% to 39%. However, a significant number -- 16% -- are still undecided. Most voters don't start paying attention to fall elections until at least Labor Day, and most campaigns are not in full swing until then, so consider this survey a kind of baseline poll. Additional poll results reported in today's Journal are available here.

The survey, as always, was conducted by Brian Sanderoff's Research and Polling Inc., a company in which the Albuquerque Journal has a financial stake. Also, as usual, the Journal did not release the full cross tabs on the polling, nor any info on how the questions were worded, how data was weighted demographically, etc. As always, the Journal selectively released the data collected.

At any rate, the Journal says the results of "phone interviews" with 942 registered New Mexico voters statewide "who have voted in the past and who said they plan to vote in the upcoming general election" have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It said that "the margin of error grows for sub-samples, such as ethnic groups and political party affiliation," although the Journal did not disclose what those margins of error were for the sub-samples. We also don't know how many Hispanic Democrats in the "Albuquerque Metro Area," for instance, were interviewed, as no such breakdowns were published.

The released the following statement in response to the poll results:

“Polls will go up and down, but as New Mexicans learn about the real Susana Martinez, they’ll see she’s just another politician who isn’t on their side and can’t be trusted. New Mexicans don’t want a Governor who wants to cut public education and let powerful corporations take advantage of families. There’s only one candidate in this race who has a track record of standing up for New Mexico families and the issues most important to them – and that’s Diane Denish,” said Denish for Governor spokesman Chris Cervini.

Results Similar to Rasmussen's
The margin between Martinez and Denish in this poll is about the same as it was for a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted on August 24, 2010 by means of automated phone calls of "likely voters," which showed Martinez with 48% and Denish with 43%. However, the Rasmussen had only 6% of those polled as undecided, compared with 16% in the Journal survey.

Martinez Lost Support Since Mid-August
Pundits earlier made much of leaked partial results of a poll allegedly conducted in mid-August by an unnamed statewide candidate that showed Martinez ahead by 12 points but under 50%. Since there was so much emphasis placed on the undocumented poll results by those who call themselves "reporters," I'll take them at their word and say that today's results show a degradation of support for Martinez between mid-August and now. If the leaked results are to be believed, Martinez has lost a full 6 percentage points of support over a period of only a few weeks as voters' interest in the race has grown at least somewhat. Bad news for Susana!

Of course many will argue with this take, and will now ignore the mid-August "results" as without meaning. You know how they are in journo-ville. Blast headlines over nothing and then switch gears when other results are released by the supposed "paper of record."

What's the reality? Early on, with most people not yet paying much attention to the election, Denish's support is trailing due to the usual mid-term let down for the incumbent party, with undecided voters still in double digits. She's 5-6 points down to a "fresh face" who has been the beneficiary of lots of positive commentary lavished on her by mainstream media sources and certain bloggers. The horse-race-style "reporters" love a contest with many twists and turns and a breathless story line that features the candidate commonly seen as a newcomer underdog up in the polls.

The results shouldn't be disregarded -- but they should be taken in context and in proper proportion. Regardless, they show that Denish and the Dems have an uphill battle in the governor's race at this point and that, when all is said and done, the November gubernatorial election will no doubt be a close one in this challenging environment.

The Task for Dems
I think Dems need to clearly show how Susana Martinez's economic and job policies -- as weak and ill-defined as they are -- will hurt ordinary New Mexicans, not help us. Working families will suffer more under the slash and burn budget and economic policies of right-wing candidates like Martinez. Jobs won't be created by a return to the Bush-era, trickle-down focus on giving already wealthy people more money to play with. Etcetera. And the same is true for contests up and down the ballot.

Voter outreach and strong messaging will be of prime importance between now and November 2nd for Dem candidates. Not only will Dems have to provide a clear contrast between their forward-looking, common-sense proposals and the failed policies of their GOP opponents, but all of us will have to volunteer to canvass, phone bank and more. This won't be an easy election cycle by any means, but we CAN WIN and WILL WIN if we do what needs doing in the coming weeks.

Additional Journal Poll Results