Democracy for New Mexico

Ted Kennedy Coming to NM to Stump for Obama?

According to the Boston Globe:

Kennedy plans to campaign actively for Obama, an aide said, and will focus particularly among Hispanics and labor union members, who are important voting blocks in several Feb. 5 states, including California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona and New Mexico.

Obama More Than Doubles Hillary's Vote Totals in SC Primary

Quite a victory for Mr. Obama yesterday in South Carolina. That's his spine-tingling celebration speech above. At the county level (see map), Edwards won only his county of birth in the NW corner of South Carolina and Clinton won only the seaside county that encompasses Myrtle Beach and other resort towns. Obama won all the rest.

Exit polling results provide detailed voter profiles. Obama won every age group, a majority of both males and females, those with college degrees and without, in every income level and within every political philosophy category. He won 78% of African-Americans and 24% of white voters in a Southern state that still flies the flag of the confederacy on its statehouse grounds. Voter turnout was about 532,000, compared with 290,000 who voted in the state's 2004 Dem primary. Obama's vote total was larger than that of the top two Repub candidates combined -- McCain and Huckabee -- in this year's Repub SC primary. And Obama received more votes than all Democrats in the 2004 South Carolina Democratic Primary. I guess Howard Dean's 50-state strategy (mocked by the Clinton wing) is working.

Ted & Caroline Kennedy
Today's spine-tingling New York Times op-ed by Caroline Kennedy endorsing Obama is the icing on the cake. Excerpt:

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

And today it was reported that Sen. Ted Kennedy will appear tomorrow morning at American University in Washington with his niece Caroline Kennedy to endorse Obama. According to an aide, Kennedy will campaign actively for Obama and will focus particularly among Hispanics and labor union members in states like California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona and New Mexico. It's powerful that Barack is getting endorsements from both Red and Blue State politicos.

Clinton's Rush to Leave SC
Very telling that Hillary Clinton decided to diss the results and flee to a rally in Tennessee without bothering to offer Obama (or those who labored in the trenches for her campaign) a traditional concession speech. Clinton's clumsy two-for-the-price-of-one campaign has repeatedly demonstrated it's not going to follow the rules or any of the niceties of Democratic politics. When you have someone like slithery Mark Penn calling the shots, that's not unexpected.

Did anyone else see any of Bill Clinton's speech last night in Independence, Missouri -- given at the same time Obama was addressing his supporters? Bill spent significant verbiage carrying on about himself and his achievements as President. It can be hard to decipher for whom he's campaigning. Sometimes I think his mind shifts back to 1996 or so when he gets up on a dais.

The Clinton campaign may have a difficult time in Missouri, one of the February 5th Super Tuesday states. Former Sen. Jean Carnahan (widow of highly popular Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan) and current Sen. Claire McCaskill have both endorsed Obama (and been outspoken about Bill Clinton's shading of the truth about Obama) -- just for starters.

Punditry
Odd how the media pundits are now questioning whether Obama can win over sufficient numbers of white voters. Wasn't it just the other day they were asking whether he was "black enough" to capture African-American voters? Well, so far he's won in the lily-white state of Iowa, as well as in South Carolina, where 50%+ of the Dem primary voter pool is African-American. Quite a range.

Today: South Carolina Dem Primary (With Updates)

UPDATE 6:49 PM: Has been projected the winner by MSNBC and CNN:

	Obama	218,963	54%	7	81% reporting
	Clinton	109,577	27%	1
	Edwards	75,453	19%	0
	Kucinich	443	0%	0

**********
UPDATE 5:24: CNN projects Obama will win based on exit polling.
**********

The first Democratic presidential primary in the South is being conducted today from 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM EST in South Carolina. The results will begin to roll in at 5:00 PM MST right here at the SC Dem Party website, when the polls close. Cable outlets CNN and MSNBC will also be posting results online, and will begin TV coverage at 6:00 PM MST. Brave New Films will have live, online coverage.

At stake are 54 pledged delegates, out of 2025 total delegates needed to win the nomination. Unlike most Repub primary contests, Dem primaries and caucuses produce proportional allocation of delegates rather than winner take all. If you get a third of the vote, you get a third of the delegates, and the delegates are allocated by congressional district. On Super Tuesday, delegates will be up for grabs in 16 Dem primary states, including New Mexico, including 183 separate congressional districts. The way in which the delegates are allocated means it's important to win votes in every district, not just in major urban centers with large populations.

Battle for Delegates
Even if one of the Dem contenders happened, by some miracle, to win every single February 5th Super Tuesday contest, that candidate would still not have enough pledged delegates to the DNC Convention in August in Denver to be declared a winner. This is gonna be a long slog. If the delegate race stays close, the power of the so-called Superdelegates grows. Superdelegates are automatic delegates to the national convention, and consist of Dem elected officials and other party powerhouses like former presidential candidates. The may support any candidate they fancy. In a tight race, they may well make the difference in putting a candidate over the top.

Candidate endorsements from big-name Democrats often don't mean much in terms of primary votes. In a normal year, when the nominee becomes apparent early, the Superdelegates usually throw their votes to the winner at the convention, even if they had previously supported someone else. This year, however, they may have a chance to make or break a nominee at the convention.

At the moment, the pledged delegate count among the top three is Obama 38, Clinton 36, Edwards 18. If you count Michigan's delegates, which the DNC has ruled will not be counted because the state ignored party rules to move their primary up before Nevada, Hillary has 109. A total of 55 unpledged delegates have been elected so far, mostly the remnants from precincts in caucus states where candidates didn't achieve the "viable" percentage of votes -- usually 15 % -- and those voters didn't choose to switch to a candidate who had achieved viability.

Michigan and Florida
Until recently, Clinton was perfectly fine with the DNC's decision not to recognize primaries in Michigan and Florida because they broke party rules to move their elections into earlier than allowed time slots. Now that the race is coming down to a fight for delegates rather than a quick sprint to early victory, Clinton is whining publicly about the poor delegates in the two states who won't get seated at the national convention. Just so happens that Clinton was the only Dem who's name appeared officially on the Michigan ballot, and she's ahead in Florida, where none of the Dems has campaigned.

Now that there's a long battle brewing over delegates, Clinton has her surrogates out there bashing Chairman Howard Dean and the DNC for having the nerve to follow the rules and put some teeth behind them. Of course the Clinton bunch has always detested Dean for his emphasis on party building over wining and dining corporate hot shots, not to mention his willingness to criticize DLC Dems for their triangulating, spineless maneuvering to avoid taking a position that might draw criticism from Repubs.

The Dean attacks from the likes of Terry McAuliffe, Bruce Reed, Al From and others in the "centrist" Clintonista realm have been coming hot and heavy since 2003, and they continue today. The thought of this group being back in the limelight if Clinton wins is enough to make my hair stand up on end. How about you?

At any rate, if the race continues to be close in the delegate count, there may well be a floor fight in Denver over seating the delegations from Michigan and Florida -- delegates who might be able to put one of the contenders in the driver's seat, most likely Clinton. Should be a long, hot summer.

You can find our previous coverage of the 2008 presidential primaries in our archive.

Saturday: Obama Campaign to Canvass in Seven NM Locations

I keep hearing rumors that Obama will visit Albuquerque on February 1st, perhaps at a rally at UNM. Nothing firm yet, but it's on good authority.

From the Obama '08 Campaign:
Volunteers for the Obama campaign will go door to door in seven cities across New Mexico this Saturday to sign up new supporters for Barack Obama before the February 5th caucus and bring even more people into our movement for change. Canvasses will take place in Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces, Gallup, Roswell, Silver City, Taos.

The Obama grassroots organization has been active in New Mexico for months.  The campaign has offices in Santa Fe, Albuquerque, and Las Cruces, and has been running television ads in markets across the state. If you would like to participate in a canvass, contact one of the Obama campaign offices in New Mexico:

Albuquerque Office
1000 2nd Street NW
Albuquerque, NM 87102
505-205-5629
Email
View map

Las Cruces Office
212 W Hadley Avenue
Las Cruces, New Mexico 88005
505-205-6689
Email
View map

Santa Fe Office
347 East Palace Avenue
Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501
505-235-5416
Email
View map

Kucinich Withdrawing from Prez Race

Discussed in an interview with the Cleveland Plain Dealer (with video). He'll announce it formally tomorrow and won't endorse any other primary candidate. He'll continue running for his 7th term in Congress. He has attracted a strong primary contender for the seat.

NM Dem Presidential Preference Caucus: Only Chance to Vote for Dem Prez Nominees

I spoke this morning with Ana Canales, who chairs the Democratic Party of Bernalillo County. She expressed concern that some Democrats seem to have misconceptions about the NM Dem Party's February 5, 2008 Presidential Preference Caucus and our later state primary election on June 3, 2008.

February 5th Dem Caucus
Just to be clear, the only opportunity for registered Democrats to vote for their favorite Dem presidential nominee is at the February 5th Caucus. The Caucus will take place at 184 polling places around the state, and is organized and paid for by the Democratic Party of New Mexico.

You will need to know your precinct number in order to find your Caucus polling place. Type in your address here to determine your precinct if you live in Bernalillo County. Statewide, you can check to see if you are registered to vote and find your precinct number by using the Secretary of State's Voter View tool. Your caucus polling place may or may not be the same as the one where you usually vote in regular elections. Check here to determine the location of your February 5th caucus polling place. This page has Caucus locations for all precincts in all New Mexico counties.

Polls will be open from Noon to 7:00 PM on February 5th. There will be no early in-person voting, and the deadline is past for requesting an absentee (mail-in) ballot. So is the deadline for registering as a Dem if you've been unregistered or registered as an independent or with a party other than the Democratic Party.

June 3rd Primary
There will be no presidential nominee choices on the June 3nd Dem primary ballot. Only state reps and senate (legislative) candidates and those competing for U.S. House and Senate slots will be running to be Dem nominees in the primary this year.

On the Republican side, they'll be choosing their nominees for president, as well as those competing to get on the Repub ticket in state races and U.S. House and Senate slots. Unlike the Democratic Party, Repubs in NM have not created an early caucus here for their presidential nomination race.

All clear now?

Obama Airs Two New Ads in NM

"Chances"


"President"

Obama campaign action has certainly blossomed in New Mexico since the Nevada caucus, so I expect we'll be hearing soon about a visit by Obama to the state. No word yet. As for the Clinton campaign, rumors are that she may visit here more than once before our February 5th caucus and/or send Bill. Not much going on in the Edwards campaign here so far. He's probably concentrating on Super Tuesday states with more delegates at stake.

The Obama campaign now has three offices open in New Mexico:

Albuquerque Office
1000 2nd Street NW
Albuquerque, NM 87102
505-205-5629
View map

Las Cruces Office
212 W Hadley Avenue
Las Cruces, New Mexico 88005
505-205-6689
View map

Santa Fe Office
347 East Palace Avenue
Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501
505-235-5416
View map

Obama New Mexico

Prominent New Mexicans Endorse Obama

At a press conference at the Roundhouse in Santa Fe today, it was announced that State Treasurer James Lewis, former U.S. Sen. and State Democratic Party Chairman Fred R. Harris, Attorney John Pound and former State Rep. Patsy Trujillo of Santa Fe would serve as New Mexico co-chairs for the Barack Obama campaign. Other well-known New Mexicans who are supporting Obama include:

• Former Albuquerque Mayor Jim Baca
• Albuquerque City Councilor Michael Cadigan
• NM House Majority Leader Ken Martinez, Grants
• NM House Majority Whip Sheryl Williams Stapleton, Albuquerque
• State Rep. Antonio “Moe” Maestas, Albuquerque
• State Rep. Al Park, Albuquerque
• State Rep. Peter Wirth, Santa Fe
• State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, Las Cruces
• State Rep. Antonio Lujan, Las Cruces
• Former state legislator Lenton Malry, Albuquerque
• Former State Rep. Max Coll
• Former Gallup Mayor Robert Rosebrough
• Former Santa Fe County Commissioner Javier Gonzales
• Former Sandoval County Commissioner Damon Ely

You can check out upcoming local events and sign onto the Obama campaign in New Mexico right here.

Obama Campaign Offices:

Albuquerque Office
1000 2nd Street NW
Albuquerque, NM 87102
505-205-5629
View map

Las Cruces Office
212 W Hadley Avenue
Las Cruces, New Mexico 88005
505-205-6689
View map

Santa Fe Office
347 East Palace Avenue
Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501
505-235-5416
View map

Today: AZ Guv Napolitano Stumps for Obama in NM

Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who has endorsed Barack Obama for President, will be at three events in New Mexico today in support of his candidacy. Napolitano grew up in Albuquerque and has many contacts in the state. All events are open to the public:

Santa Fe
Tuesday, January 22nd, 1:00 PM, Hotel Santa Fe, Paseo de Peralta. More info: Gaye at 505-982-1899. According to an item in this morning's Albuquerque Journal, Napolitano will also meet with undecided women voters at 3:0 PM today at the Hotel Santa Fe, but I don't see that event on the Obama website so you might want to double check.

Albuquerque
Tuesday, January 22nd, 6:00 PM, Art Dance Art Space Bldg., 3030 Isleta Blvd. SW. Take I-25 South to Rio Bravo Exit and go West. Turn right at signal.

To learn more about local campaign activities, check the Obama for New Mexico page at the Obama website. Obama's Albuquerque campaign office is located at 1000 2nd Street NW, Albuquerque, NM 87102; 505-205-5629.

Nevada Dem Caucus: Obama Wins in National Pledged Delegate Count

Turns out Obama won more pledged delegates in Nevada than Clinton despite her win in the percentage column. Due to complex precinct weighting and allocation rules, Obama garnered what's being calculated as 13 pledged national convention delegates to Hillary's 12.

With 98% of precincts counted, the Nevada Dem Party reported Clinton had 5,355 (51%) to Obama's 4,773 (45%), a margin of 582 convention delegates elected to county conventions -- not votes. Instead of releasing caucus vote totals, the Nevada Dem Party released the number of county delegates earned by each candidate. As explained in a statement by the State Party Chair, these numbers have been translated by the media into expected pledged delegates to the national convention for each candidate, which results in Obama being shown to have 13 to Clinton's 12. Confusing, no? I wonder if the actual vote totals will eventually be released. It would be interesting to see what the vote margin was between Clinton and Obama, especially since Sen. Harry Reid's son, Rory, was running things on the ground in Nevada as Chairman for the Clinton camp. Almost 120,000 Dems voted in the caucus.

By the way, there are a number of reports circulating about irregularities at caucus sites that are being blamed on Clinton campaign operatives. According to an item in The Atlantic:

David Plouffe, in a succinct statement appended to a released quotation from his boss, Barack Obama, said the Obama campaign was investigating more than 200 reporters of irregularities in Nevada.

“We currently have reports of over 200 separate incidents of trouble at caucus sites, including doors being closed up to thirty minutes early, registration forms running out so people were turned away, and ID being requested and checked in a non-uniform fashion. This is in addition to the Clinton campaign’s efforts to confuse voters and call into question the at-large caucus sites which clearly had an affect on turnout at these locations. These kinds of Clinton campaign tactics were part of an entire week’s worth of false, divisive, attacks designed to mislead caucus-goers and discredit the caucus itself."