Democracy for New Mexico

(Updated) NM Dem Prez Caucus: My View on the Blame Game

Update: I've been informed that Sen. Jeff Bingaman did indeed donate significant funds for the Caucus and also did outreach to get other constituencies to do the same when he was asked to help.
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This post is very long but I hope you'll hang in there with me. First, go read Heath Haussamen's update about the problems associated with New Mexico's February 5th Democratic Presidential Preference Caucus. Democratic Party of New Mexico Chairman Brian Colón explains what happened with the three Rio Arriba ballot boxes and asserts that the results on the top two candidates were called in to the Party in Albuquerque before the boxes left the caucus sites. Colón then takes responsibility for problems associated with handling the massive turnout on Caucus day:

Pointing out that turnout on Tuesday was much greater than the 105,000 who showed up in 2004, Colón said the story could have been about how the two Democratic presidential candidates inspired New Mexico Democrats to vote.

“What we can write about is how two candidates came and lit the state on fire in less than 10 days, and that’s amazing,” he said. “I regret that I allowed this other situation and the party’s organization to become the story instead of that.”

Colón has taken responsibility for the problems and apologized in other statements to local media as well. Why? Because he's an incredibly hard-working, sincerely caring, principled individual who doesn't have a habit of creating convenient scapegoats. Don't take my word for it -- ask other people like me who work within the Party structure. I'm a precinct chair and a member of the State Central Committee and I've seen the Party improve in leaps and bounds under his leadership. It's been like night and day.

New Energy in the Dem Party
In my view, Colón as Chair has been a huge breath of fresh air within a Party that was sluggish, lazy, anti-outreach, anti-transparency and downright nasty at times to rank and file Dems when John Wertheim was in charge before Colon. Wertheim was the kind of Party Chair who seemed to resent an influx of new faces into the Party as volunteers, ward and precinct chairs and elected members of the SCC. (Google his name within this blog to read about some of the epic battles activists had with Mr. Wertheim.) Colón has been just the opposite in my experience. Has he made mistakes dealing with an often raucous Party with a variety of factions and complex political alliances? Sure. But I think the Party has been operating incredibly well compared to how it functioned previously under Wertheim. It's a tough and time-consuming job for anyone.

How We Got Here
Certainly Colón and others were caught flat-footed when turnout surged on Caucus day. Although there was excitement about the presidential primary in other states where early contests were held, there wasn't much here until we got barnstormed in the week or so before our Caucus. Before that, with Richardson in the race and no interest at all in our Caucus from the other candidates, it was assumed there'd be no real contest here. After all, Bill Richardson insisted until the day he dropped out of the race that he was in it until Super Tuesday. Many of us believed him and figured the turnout would be rather light and made up mostly of those loyal to Richardson in the state.

By the time momentum picked up in the race, which really happened when Obama started being perceived as a serious challenger to Clinton, it was very late in the game for our caucus process.

The Role of Richardson and Other Dem Powerhouses
Even though Colón appears to me to be falling on his sword for Richardson, I want to point out that there are many within the Dem Party who should be held accountable in my view -- including Richardson himself. I'm especially appalled at what I consider to be a pompous, selfish, spin-loaded statement by the Governor about the situation, one obviously designed to protect his "national standing" and transfer the blame to someone else.

Everyone knows the early, Party-run and paid-for Caucus was Richardson's baby and part of his presidential run strategy. He "urged" the SCC to approve his plan to institute the Caucus and was heavily involved in the 2004 version. Contrary to what he says in his statement, that year's Caucus also had its serious problems, but the positive spin applied by his forces that year was strong enough to head off most negative media attention.

In addition, the '04 Caucus was clearly better funded by Party bigwigs and benefited from an influx of volunteers and other help steered to the process by the campaigns of Dem prez nominees like Howard Dean, as well as interest generated by a presidential primary debate held at UNM. Richardson's wide-reaching political network was also central to the process. That help wasn't there this time. That kind of money and attention from the top echelons of Dem power in the state wasn't there this time either.

Yes, I think Richardson should own up to his share of the responsibility for the kinds of problems that arose with the Caucus this year. Busy with his presidential run and sucking up virtually every spare dollar in the state to fund his presidential campaign, Richardson obviously paid little attention to the 2008 Caucus or helping to make it a success. It was left almost entirely in the lap of Colón, other already hard-pressed State and County Party officers, the tiny State Party staff and hundreds and hundreds of volunteers around the state -- all of whom worked like dogs under very trying circumstances to run what amounts to a state election on a shoestring and a song.

This is a poor and sparsely populated state. We don't have thousands of big donors and experienced political operatives to help make something like this work like a charm. Our Party doesn't possess state of the art technology or highly skilled people paid to design and run its systems. Yet what happened here is being compared by many -- like the Albuquerque Journal's political reporters -- to state primaries that are run by state governments and caucuses in states where the Dem Party is flush with cash, much of it generated by the presidential campaigns.

Richardson, however, isn't the only one I think needs to step up and be accountable. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has built up a personal warchest of more than a million dollars for a gubernatorial campaign that won't happen until 2010. Where was she in this process? Her email list must be in the thousands and her political network is large. Did she strongly urge her supporters to volunteer to help put the Caucus together and staff the Caucus sites? Not to my knowledge.

Where was Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez? I notice he was quoted in the paper today badmouthing the Caucus, but I don't believe he or his minions lifted one finger to try and ensure its success. How about Sen. Jeff Bingaman and Rep. Tom Udall? Were their people out there urging supporters to help and donate for the Caucus? If so, I didn't notice.

I could go on.

Party Bigwigs vs. Party Grunts
The lack of interest and participation in the Caucus by most of the powerful officeholders, poobahs and big donors within the Dem Party has been palpable in my view, as it generally is in terms of anything to do with the grunt work of the Party. These faces are almost never seen at Party events or business-related meetings, or when work is to be done to make Party efforts a success. About the only time we see them is when they are running for office and seeking volunteers, donations and petition signatures. Or when they want to make a speech and get a big round of applause at big Party gatherings. Then they do their star power thing and leave before the, you know, boring business of operating a political party begins.

I want every bigshot in the Party -- including the Governor -- to publicly apologize for not doing more for this Caucus or anything else to do with operation of the Party. I want them all to apologize to the incredibly hardworking volunteers, county chairs and others who donated innumerable hours to this process under very trying circumstances -- and who pulled it off admirably in most locations despite the massive turnout and lack of support. I want them all to apologize to the 150,000 or more Democrats who turned out to vote on Tuesday and stayed the course to do so despite the lines, the weather and the chaos in some places. I want them all to apologize to the Dems who showed up to vote but never got the chance because of problems in the setup.

Ordinary Democrats are doing just fine. Grassroots and netroots interest and participation in Dem politics is exploding. More people are taking the time to be better informed than ever before. More people are donating time and money. More and more citizens are engaged and responding to the myriad of emergencies we face in our nation with passion. Many have even decided to run for office. The problems, in my view, originate in the business-as-usual, insider segments of the Party -- with the public officeholders and candidates and power brokers who believe they're rock stars and VIPs too high and mighty to get their hands dirty with mere Party matters. Too many concentrate solely on their own political expediencies, their own campaign fundraising and big donor asskissing, their own narrow interest in making personal political gains. Too many could care less about building the Party or serving the real interests of the people. They're much too involved with their own private empires.

Bottom line: I believe the problems with the New Mexico Dem Caucus reveal more about the disdain for the Party evident in its upper echelons, candidates and people who hold higher offices than they do about the failures of those forced to actually put it together and run it. We're tired of the massive egos and private agendas of too many of our candidates and those who are supposed to be representing the people.

This situation is just another example of the disconnect between those who inhabit Governor's mansions, statehouses, the halls of Congress, and other niches of privilege and the ordinary people who are the real backbone of the the Party and the nation. We're tired of doing all your dirty work for you and having you show up only to get your egos stroked or to blame all the wrong people for your own failures. Ask any ordinary Dem.

Also check out recent coverage on the Caucus at New Mexico FBIHOP, which includes many first-hand accounts of what went on at the Caucus sites, as well as m-pyre. Previous DFNM posts on this are available here and here and here.

Gov. Richardson Releases Statement on NM Dem Prez Caucus

In response to various problems being reported about yesterday's New Mexico Democratic Presidential Preference Caucus, Gov. Bill Richardson released the following statement today:

SANTA FE, NM- New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson today issued the following statement regarding the state's Democratic Presidential caucus.

"I am proud that so many New Mexico Democrats turned out to vote in yesterday's caucus.  The unprecedented interest and activism in the primary process shows that New Mexicans take seriously their important role in choosing the next President.  Make no mistake, New Mexico's 26 delegates matter greatly."

"That said, I am deeply disturbed by the reports that problems and delays at polling locations may have kept people from voting.  As this very close election shows every vote is important, and every vote must count.  Anything less is unacceptable.  In addition the delay in results was extremely disappointing. I have expressed my frustration to Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon and I told him that I stand ready to help the party in any way that I can."

"At the same time, I believe that New Mexico voters- Democrats and Republicans alike- must decide whether they want to preserve their early voice in the process in the future, and what form it should take.  Whatever the decision, we must pledge to voters that future caucuses and primaries are professionally run, inclusive, and provide accurate, timely results."

The Caucus was conceived by the Governor in 2003 to give New Mexico voters a real voice in the selection of the party nominees--as the state primary elections are in June--long after nominees traditionally have been chosen.  It has been wildly successful as over 100,000 Democrats turned out in the first caucus and 150,000 turned out yesterday.  New Mexico Democrats- and Republicans if they choose- now have a real voice in the nomination process.

This is a Democratic Party process--not done at taxpayer expense--run by volunteers and funded by the Democratic Party and its supporters.  Democratic voters must recognize that with their new privilege of voting early comes responsibility.  If they want a voice in the process-they need to support the Caucus with their time and financial contributions.

In 2004 Governor Richardson--through his personal efforts and those of his organization--ensured a successful first caucus--well organized, well funded, well-executed.  This year, his political organization was devoted to his Presidential run and his personal time is now devoted to the Legislature.  The New Mexico Democratic Party and New Mexico Democrats were wholly responsible for this caucus in the absence of the Governor's time and his organization.  Despite their best efforts, the enormous turnout overwhelmed Party officials in some places.

(Updated) NM Dem Caucus: This Reeks

Update 2: Please also read my later post on this issue. Turns out the the results on the top two candidates were called in from Rio Arriba County to the Party in Albuquerque before the boxes left the caucus sites, with watchers from both the Clinton and Obama campaigns standing right there. End of story.

Update 1: Kate Nash reports that as of about 5:00 PM, counting of about 16,000 provisional ballots hadn't yet begun because representatives from all sides are negotiating the ground rules. The process is ongoing at the REDW firm in Albuquerque. Also, Gov. Richardson released a statement about the Caucus and the problems surrounding it.
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Some serious attention is being given today to the whys and hows related to Rio Arriba County Dems holding three Caucus ballot boxes overnight at their homes. The officials reportedly failed to count the votes and phone the results into the State Dem Party after voting ended last night, as required. The votes held back may equal half of the votes cast in the county.

More than a day after New Mexico Caucus voting began, a believable, factual account of what happened has still not been released or confirmed. Heath Haussamen is following up on the story today. Go read it and weep. Excerpt:

The New Mexico Democratic Party caucus may be tainted by three ballot boxes that spent the night in the home of the Rio Arriba County party chair or the homes of other local election officials instead of being reported to the state party.

Those ballots still haven’t been counted, but they have been retrieved by the state party.

Several sources told me the ballot boxes spent the night at the home of Rio Arriba County Party Chair Theresa Martinez, whose state-lawmaker husband, Sen. Richard Martinez, endorsed Hillary Clinton. But Richard Martinez told Santa Fe New Mexican reporter Kate Nash that the boxes actually spent the night in the homes of three polling-place managers. He gave Nash no explanation for why the results from those ballots weren’t reported to the state party last night and why they were instead kept overnight in officials’ homes.

... The ballot boxes were retrieved from Theresa Martinez by the state party this morning.

I agree with Heath's assessment that "The state party needs to quickly resolve this and tell the public how it’s going to allay fears that the election process is tainted beyond repair." Of course there could be innocent explanations for this stuff, but it gets harder to believe as more time passes.

Results from an additional ballot box from Sandoval County still haven't been released either. The Rio Arriba and Sandoval County ballots represent the 2% of the state's Caucus vote that is still unreported. Meanwhile, only about 200 votes separate Obama and Clinton, and the Party is reportedly in the process of validating and counting almost 16,000 provisional ballots. It may be a long time before complete, official Caucus results will be released. Given all the confusion and rule breaking, I expect some legal challenges will be made by one or both of the candidates.

The Rio Arriba County situation can only serve to raise additional questions about who made the decision to have only one Caucus site in Rio Rancho, New Mexico's third largest city with a 2006 population of 72,000 -- and why they did so. Barack Obama was expected to do well in Rio Rancho, where many young, independent voters reside. And where is Gov. Richardson in all this? The Party Caucus was his idea from the start.

Big Mo Continues for Obama Beyond Super Tuesday

Obama fans in Barrow, Alaska, northernmost point in U.S.

Obama won 13 states out of 22 that held Dem contests on Super Tuesday, and had healthy margins in other states that will earn him delegates. His victories were in Alabama, Alaska, Connecticut, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota , Missouri, North Dakota, Utah. He may still pull out a win in New Mexico, as well. Click for CNN New Mexico results. Click for CNN Super Tuesday results (all states).

Clinton's performance was flat in that she won no states that were unexpected, and she lost in a few -- like Missouri and Connecticut -- where she had maintained huge leads only weeks before the primaries. She prevailed in eight states and one territory: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and American Samoa.

Up until a few weeks ago, Hillary was expected to dominate the Super Tuesday states to such an extent that she would drive Obama from the race. His big mo after South Carolina has clearly changed the trajectory of the quest for the Dem nomination.

The final numbers in the February 5th contest for delegates are not yet available. Delegate allocation is a tricky business. According to a late-nite prediction on MSNBC, however, Obama may have a total of 841 delegates versus Clinton's 837 (plus or minus 10 delegates) once the numbers are crunched from Super Tuesday. It may or may not be accurate.

These totals don't include the super delegates, who are Dem elected officials or other Party insiders and who can vote for whomever they choose at the convention. I don't believe Clinton's numbers include delegates from her dubious wins in Florida and Michigan -- states that bucked DNC rules by moving up their primaries. The DNC has ruled that the pledged delegates from those two states will not be counted in the delegate seating at the Party's August convention.

What Next?
In the next four contests, Obama is favored in all but Maine:

February 9: Louisiana primary; Nebraska and Washington caucuses
February 10: Maine caucuses
February 12: DC, Maryland, Virginia (Potomac Tuesday)
February 19: Hawaii, Wisconsin

Next up are states where Clinton again becomes competitive, and the campaigning should be intense, especially in delegate-rich Ohio and Texas:

March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont

Booman Tribune has put together a useful analysis explaining why the BooMan thinks Obama has the upper hand in these states and beyond.

Campaign Money
Obama raised $32 million in January alone, compared to about $13.5 million for Hillary, and the majority of his new and small donors are nowhere near their contribution limits. Many of Hillary's donors aren't able to donate any more, having reached their primary contribution caps, so it's a good bet that Obama will outraise Clinton again this month. Flush with cash, Obama will be able to devote more resources for organization and ads than Clinton in many places.

(Updated) Results: 2008 Super Tuesday

Updated NM results from KOAT as of Wednesday morning (does not include almost 17,000 provisional ballots, which may or may not be valid, that will start being counted at Noon). Dem State Party Chair Brian Colon told the AP that results from four precincts were still being delayed this morning -- three from Rio Arriba County and one from Sandoval County. DPNM Results page.

2008 New Mexico Democratic Caucus Candidate Votes Percent Winner Hillary Clinton 65,845 48% < Barack Obama 65,728 48% < Bill Richardson 1,174 1% < John Edwards 2,013 1% < Joe Biden 112 0% < Chris Dodd 68 0% < Dennis Kucinich 496 0% < Uncommitted 405 0% < Precincts Reporting - 181 out of 184 - 98%

Updated NM results from KOAT as of a few minutes before 1:00 AM:

2008 New Mexico Democratic Caucus Candidate Votes Percent Winner Hillary Clinton 62,802 48% < Barack Obama 63,030 49% < Bill Richardson 1,124 1% < John Edwards 1,966 2% < Joe Biden 102 0% < Chris Dodd 67 0% < Dennis Kucinich 482 0% < Uncommitted 344 0% < Precincts Reporting - 175 out of 184 - 95% /td>

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Updated as of Midnight Mountain Time:
Still waiting on New Mexico results. Most vote totals in from small or sparsely populated counties. Santa Fe is the only more populated county to report so far. Keep checking results at the NM Dem Party website. From the looks of things we'll probably have a pretty even delegate split between Obama and Clinton here. Here's the CNN exit polling on New Mexico, which shows a narrow Obama win.

Site Problems
Mary Ellen was a Caucus site manager and didn't get home until about 10 PM, tired to the bone and starving. No food at the site and no time to stop and send out for any or to consume it if any was at hand. No one could take any breaks as the voters just kept on coming from Noon to 7. She reports the volunteers she met from other sites were in the same shape after being completely overwhelmed all day.

It is a crazy thing for a party to try and run 184 voting sites across the state, plus all the rest that goes with a statewide election, with a volunteer staff that's maybe half of what it should be and only a few paid staffers. I mean half of what it should be with a normal turnout, not this huge one. There weren't enough tables, ballots, or just about anything else. This was awful for voters in many areas and awful for the volunteers trying to perform miracles with the numbers and resources they had.

Caucus volunteers were very hard to attract in places like Bernalillo County. People are busy. People aren't interested. People are content to leave the work to others and complain. The unpaid county and state officers worked like dogs, as did the paid state party staff. You can imagine which party members weren't around to help in any way. They all hold offices or are candidates or are "name" politicos or big Dem donors. No sign of them anywhere work was being done, or where a few pizzas or donuts might be welcome. Very troubling, to say the least. I wonder what the former presidential candidate and all his pals did all day and into the night. After all, a Caucus was originally his idea.

Right now:

CLINTON
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma
Tennessee

OBAMA
Alabama 
Alaska
Connecticut 
Colorado
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota 
Missouri
North Dakota
Utah

Basically, Clinton won states close to Arkansas and close to New York where the Clinton organization goes back years. California is a similar story, with the Clintons having spent many years nurturing their political network. Huge night for Obama, meeting or exceeding expectations while Clinton did the opposite. She didn't win enough states or by big enough margins where she did win to dominate, as had been expected up until the last few days. The Obama campaign had said if they could stay within 100 delegates of Hillary, it would be a big victory. Obama did much better than that.

MSNBC's political analyst last had projected delegate totals with Obama up by 4 delegates with an interpretation generous to the Clinton campaign and a warning it could change by 10 delegates either way. Truly an amazing achievement, most of which was accomplished during about a two-week period of surging numbers for Obama. Now the energies of the race move up an octave and the battle continues, delegate by delegate.

CNN will have results for all states here or you can visit the New Mexico page. Here's where the NM Dem Party's results will show up eventually. KNME will air a local results show from 7:00-8:00 PM tonight, along with a live stream online. Crooks and Liars has an easy to read table of nationwide results. I'm going to leave you to clicking for results on your own for now. I'm going to have dinner and relax in front of the TV. Wel, relax is probably the wrong word. Nervously stare at the tube is more like it. Hey, lots of others are live blogging this thing -- why repeat the results here! I'll check in later after more is revealed. It could be a long and bumpy night.

First Dem Projected Winner: Obama, Georgia (based on exit polling)

Continuing reports that Caucus turnout is strong around the state. In Albuquerque we're hearing that sites are running out of provisional ballots, and they're having difficulties obtaining more. Provisional ballots won't be counted until Wednesday because data has to be checked to ensure the votes are valid. The waits are in the general range of 30 minutes to an hour, with lines snaking through the sites and out the doors in some places. Caucus sites are open from Noon to 7:00 PM tonight. If you're in line by closing time, you'll be allowed to vote. If you need info on where to vote, check out our left-hand sidebar for links.

Problems are being reported in many voting sites nationwide, with unprecedented turnouts in many areas.

Snowy Caucus Day in New Mexico 2008

Update: A story in the Albuquerque Tribune about Caucus turnout is entitled, "Overwhelming interest surprises New Mexico Democrats."
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Snow frosted our Obama sign this morning in Albuquerque, on New Mexico's Democratic Presidential Caucus Day 2008. We got an inch or two overnight, but most of it will be gone by the time the Caucus sites open at Noon. Up north, things will be a bit more dicey. The Chama area got the most snow with four feet falling over two days in some spots, creating emergency conditions and closing many roads. Yesterday, Gov. Richardson declared Chama and the rest of Rio Arriba County to be a disaster area, and today he ordered more than a dozen National Guard troops to assist with relief efforts there.

My block in ABQ: Obama signs stuck in snow this morning.

Taos blogger FarrFeed has this to say today about the snow in his area:

We were supposed to get less than two inches overnight, but there are knee-deep drifts in places. About 10 -12 inches overall, and it’s still snowing ... The votes from Taos County are going to be way down, absolutely ... Most of the roads in this part of the state are closed. ALL the mountain passes are closed.

The Santa Fe area is reportedly icy in places, but passable. There was a two-hour delay in school openings this morning there, as well as similar delays in the East Mountains outside Albuquerque. Most areas of the state should be just fine by Noon, after the sun has had a chance to heat things up.

If you've been out to vote, head on over to where they're collecting info on the weather, turnout and level of enthusiasm around the state.

The Official State Question: Red or Green?
According to blogger KathyF at What Do I Know, a Democrat abroad and former Albuquerque resident who helped run the Dean campaign in New Mexico last caucus season, Obama is red chile, Hillary is green. We think you have it just right, Kathy! Of course, our house is partial to the RED:

Snowy backyard in the high desert with arching hollyhock remnants:

Click on photos for larger images. All photos by M.E. Broderick.

Guest Blog: Why New Progressives Should Support Obama

This is a guest blog by Eric Griego, Moe Maestas and Javier Benavidez:

It is rare in American politics that a leader emerges who inspires people to look beyond their political party, their race, or their gender.  A leader who truly restores faith in the idea that we are all in this together and that it is still possible to change America for the better.  We believe Barack Obama is that leader.

With a few notable exceptions, the two remaining Democrats have similar platforms.  Obama has been a strong and steady opponent of the war in Iraq.  Clinton voted to go to war.  Obama has the most progressive position on immigration, including a path to citizenship. Clinton flip flopped on the issue of issuing drivers’ licenses to immigrants to protect public safety.  While Clinton is as hawkish as conservative Republicans on using diplomacy, Senator Obama believes we should never negotiate out of fear, but we should never fear to negotiate with some of our toughest enemies.  Not with a blank check and no agenda, but with an earnest resolve to move diplomacy where we can.  Instead of forcing people who cannot afford insurance to buy it, Obama’s healthcare plan focuses on cutting costs.  Clinton’s plan looks a lot like the failed and underfunded Massachusetts model.

Almost 50 years ago, another young Senator inspired a nation with his message of unity and bold change for America.   His name was John F. Kennedy.  Like Senator Obama he challenged Americans to believe that we could change history by making America work for all of us again.  He was not the typical candidate.  He was young.  He was from a religious group (Catholics) that had never fielded a Presidential candidate.   Some people at the time said he was a gamble.  However, his bold plan for America changed the course of history.

One of JFK’s closest allies in the U.S. Senate, was a man, who grew up in Albuquerque’s Barelas neighborhood, Senator Dennis Chavez.  Dennis Chavez co-chaired the national Viva Kennedy campaign, which helped deliver not just the state for Kennedy, but most of the Hispanic vote nationwide. It was the first time that Hispanic voters were mobilized enough to determine the outcome of a national campaign.

Sadly, the Clinton campaign is claiming that Hispanics are monolithic and according to her pollster, Sergio Bendexin, will not support a Black candidate.  The myth of a brown-black rift is just that – a myth.  A fairytale if you will.  As Time magazine pointed out, Hispanics have helped elect several big city Black mayors from Harold Washington in Chicago to Wellington Webb in Denver.  Here in New Mexico Obama’s state campaign co-chair James Lewis was elected by an overwhelming Democratic majority – most of whom were Hispanic.

This should not be a black vs. white election, or even a black vs. brown election.  It should also not be a man vs. women election. It should be a future vs. the past election.  An innovation vs. the status quo election.  Color, gender or age should be irrevelant.

In the end, the differences between Obama and Clinton are minor compared to the Republican alternatives.  Both Obama and Clinton are more than qualified to be President.  The real question is whether we want a new direction, a fresh approach, a new way.  For those of us who are trying to be part of a new kind of politics here in New Mexico, we think Obama offers the best hope for our future. 

We hope you will join us.

Fired Up, Ready to Go Song: Pass It On

Seattle Musicians: Read about it.

VOTE: NOON TO 7:00 PM

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2008

Come wind, come rain, come snow

What Will Super Tuesday Bring?

Plus Alaska and American Samoa

Super Tuesday states. Obama has had incredible momentum since South Carolina, and he's been making big polling gains on Two-For-The-Price-Of-One Clinton in states like California, Massachusetts and New Jersey. Some of the national polls show them in a statistical dead heat. Still, Clinton may well hang on in California and beyond tomorrow. New Mexico appears to be up for grabs and anybody's guess. Turnout is everything.

Obama is moving up fast but he hasn't crested yet, so he'll probably lose any number of states, most of them by single digits. In some places, not enough people were exposed to him or his wife, Michelle, in time for an out-and-out victory. In others, where early voting is big, many marked their ballots for Hillary before Obama's big mo got going, or they voted for Edwards thinking he'd still be in the race on Super Tuesday.

Obama's Goal: Stay Competitive
The point is that Obama doesn't need to win the majority of states tomorrow to "win" in the long run. What he needs to do is win a few and come close in others to show that Hillary's trajectory has been flat as a pancake since the early contests. Obama must collect enough delegates to stay close and that will equal the equivalent of a victory, for now.

Just two weeks ago polls were predicting a Clinton blow-out in many locales. Now the margins between the two candidates have gotten smaller in some places with each passing day. Given expectations, if Hillary doesn't win big -- as in double digits -- in a significant number of states, the battle for delegates will have just begun. Unless Obama or Clinton has absolutely stunning victories across the board tomorrow, no amount of spin will permit one or the other to justifiably declare they're the big winner. Remember, almost all of the Democratic primaries and caucuses award delegates proportionately, according to the percentages the candidates get in each Congressional district.

If Hillary doesn't dominate on Super Tuesday, her campaign contributions may well begin to fade dramatically. For one thing, her fundraising operation is conventional to the max, meaning most of her contributors are already tapped out because they've given the limit. Meanwhile, it's not unreasonable to assume that Obama's will continue to gush, given the $32 million he raised in January alone, much of it from small and new donors.

Coming Up
The rest of February's Dem contests include states where Obama is expected to do better than Clinton. And he'll have more time to close the deal:

• February 9: Louisiana primary; Nebraska and Washington caucuses
• February 10: Maine caucuses
• February 12: DC, Maryland, Virginia
• February 19: Hawaii, Wisconsin

Obama is now favored in all of those except Maine. Next up, states where Clinton again becomes competitive, and the campaigning should be intense:

• March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont

Then two where Obama is favored, a long gap and then the battleground state of Pennsylvia:

• March 8: Wyoming
• March 11: Mississippi
• April 22: Pennsylvania

I'll stop there, because nobody knows where we'll be by then. Many believe we could go all the way to the August convention in Denver before we have a nominee, unless either campaign collapses or someone makes a huge error. You never know.

(Updated) Voting: Other Ways to Find Your 2/5/08 NM Caucus Site

UPDATE 2/5/08: From Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver:

In regard to the removal of the "Where do I Vote?" tool on the County Clerk's website:

The Bernalillo County Clerk's office is working diligently to assist the Democratic Party with today's caucus. 

In the preceding weeks we've received multiple complaints regarding the fact that the tool does not refer voters to their Caucus website.  The tool is based on our voter registration system, which only allows us to enter polling locations when we are conducting elections.  Since the state Democratic Party is conducting this election, we are not able to use the tool in the same way.  If a voter accessed the "Where do I Vote?" tool recently, it gave them information about how to vote in the September, 2007 CNM election. 

Needless to say, this was confusing to voters.

We temporarily removed the tool from our website in order to reduce the confusion.  In it's place, we put a link to the State Democratic Party website.

Voters may contact our office at 468-1291 to find out their precinct and polling location. Phones will be answered until polls close at 7 PM.
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I'm hearing that many people are having a hard time finding where to vote in the NM Democratic Presidential Preference Caucus tomorrow because Dem Party phone lines and website pages are overwhelmed at times. I also noticed the tool to find your precinct number is down or removed from the Bernalillo County Clerk's Office website, and you need your precinct number to find your caucus site. An easy solution is to the use the tool at the Obama New Mexico page. Just type in your info here. Granted, you'll get on the campaign's mailing list whether you're a supporter or not, but at this point it might be your best bet. Various alternative links are listed on the left-hand sidebar near the top of the page on DFNM.

Update: You can also go to here and look yourself up. It'll list your Precinct number next to "Polling place." Then go to the State Party site  (which seems to be working ok) and see which polling place your Precinct is assigned to. I was originally directing people to a League of Women Voters site but have since learned it doesn't alway return the right voting place for this particular election.