Democracy for New Mexico

New NM Rasmussen Polls: Obama Up By 13, Tom Udall Up By 20

New Rassmussen polling is encouraging indeed.

U.S. Senate race in New Mexico: Tom Udall 57% - Steve Pearce 37%. Two weeks ago it was Udall up 55-41%.

Udall earns favorable reviews from 64% of the state’s voters, up eight points from the previous survey. Pearce gets positive ratings from 43%, unchanged over the past two weeks. Udall attracts support from 88% of Democrats and enjoys a two-to-one advantage over Pearce among unaffiliated voters. Pearce is now supported by just 75% of Republicans, down from 82% earlier.

And after Udall's strong showing in last night's debate with Pearce on KOB-TV (video here and more on debate at Udall blog), I wouldn't be surprised if Tom's lead stays in double-digit terroritory until November 4.

Presidential race in NM: Obama 55% - McCain 42%. As in other former swing states that are turning more Blue by the day, Obama's lead has expanded dramatically over the past two weeks, when Rasmussen had Obama up by five points, 49-44%. The victory train is about to leave the station and McCain's not on it:

Overall, Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of New Mexico voters, McCain by 54%. However, 46% of New Mexico voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 28% say the same about McCain. Twenty-seven percent (27%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama and 29% view McCain that negatively. McCain and Obama are essentially even among white voters while the Democrat has a 17-point lead among Hispanic voters. Obama leads by 15 among women but trails by eight among men.

And how about this regarding the Obama's up-trends nationally:

Currently, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry in 2004. Of the states won by Bush that year, McCain is trailing in four, and five others are considered toss-ups. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 255-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

We can't let up, but we can imagine! Say it with me: 19 days!

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Strike Three: You're Out, Johnny

Obama's new ad riffing off McCain's statement last night that he isn't Bush

This was strike three for McCain. Three debates with Obama, three losses -- according to instant polling, focus groups, most observers. Last night McCain looked and acted angry, grumpy, nasty, snide, rude, arrogant, bullying, rigid, repressed, unreasonable, panicked and, at times, incoherent. His attacks on Obama were often personal, almost snarling, especially in the last half hour. They were also all over the lot, like disconnected lobs of whatever came into his mind at the moment, regardless of whether they made sense in a given context. McCain offered few, if any, cogent arguments. His impatient consciousness seemed to jump from memorized attack line to memorized attack line with no connecting narrative. Nothing stuck.

Obama kept his cool, parried masterfully and responded with measured arguments that calmly undercut McCain's frenetic and desperate lunges. He never let McCain get under his skin. Obama was reassuring, dignified and presidential. McCain was erratic, staccato and small. The split screen contrasts were stark, and devastating to McCain -- whose repeated bouts of mugging, sighing, smirking and eye-rolling were irritating and off-putting. McCain's "Joe the Plumber" schtick fell flat. In one focus group, every single member gave it the thumbs down. With no real policy points to push given the distain with which almost everything Bushian is viewed these days, McCain was left with cliches, old talking points and the nothingness of Bill Ayers.

The instant polls conducted right after the last prez debate found Obama the clear winner.

• CNN poll of debate viewers: Obama 58%, McCain 31%
  
• CBS poll of uncommitted voters: Obama 53%, McCain 22%
  
• Both focus groups of uncommitted voters on CNN and Fox News found Obama the winner.

What we have to remember going forward:

"For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire. I've been in these positions before when we were favored, and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked. He added, “That’s another good lesson that Hillary Clinton taught me, so we want to make sure that we are closing strong, running through the tape.” --Sen. Barack Obama, quoted by the New York Times

And McCain hasn't yet given up on New Mexico. His campaign just announced that Sarah Palin will be coming to Roswell on Sunday, October 19 for a rally.

Obama/Udall Campaign ABQ Debate Watch Parties Tonight, and More

From the Albuquerque for Obama Facebook group:

NOB HILL FINAL DEBATE WATCH AND EARLY VOTE KICKOFF PARTY AT KELLY'S BREW PUB (with the U.S Senate debate to follow): FEATURING JILL COOPER UDALL. Located at 3222 Central Ave. All ages welcome! Presidential Debate 6-8:30 PM, Senate Debate 9-10 PM. More info: Facebook

DOWNTOWN FINAL DEBATE WATCH PARTY AT ONE UP LOUNGE: Our One Up parties have all been hugely successful with 150+ people showing up to sip cocktails, enjoy appetizers, and watch the debate at this hip downtown lounge. If you haven't been to one of our One Up parties, now is the time! All ages welcome! Presidential Debate 6-8:30 PM, One Up Lounge, 302 Central (2nd and Central).

EARLY VOTE OUTREACH AT UNM: Tabling and Outreach Spreading the Word about Early Vote ON CAMPUS. Tuesday-Friday 12-8 PM (Oct. 21-Oct. 24, Oct. 28-Oct. 31) at Mesa Vista, LOOK FOR OUR TABLE. Please email mhaney@nmforchange.com to sign up for a two hour shift, call 505-553-6860, or come to our table on campus! We greatly need your help: There is early voting on campus starting 10/18 and we have to get the word out!

For more debate watch parties and other events around NM, visit New Mexico for Obama.

Details Released: Joe Biden to Host Change We Need Rally on Mesilla Plaza on Friday

The Obama campaign announced that Senator Joe Biden will host a Change We Need rally at the historic Mesilla Plaza at Calle de Guadelupe and Calle de Parian in Mesilla, New Mexico at 1:30 PM on Friday, October 17th. "Doors" open at 11:30 AM.

The event is free and open to the public; tickets are not required but an RSVP is strongly encouraged. To RSVP please visit the New Mexico for Obama page. (I'm not seeing anything there yet, but an event notice should be up soon.) A limited number of preferred viewing tickets will be available on a first come first serve basis at one of our ticket distribution locations listed below.

TICKET DISTRIBUTION LOCATIONS
**Tickets will be available on Thursday from 9AM to 9PM**

Campaign for Change - Las Cruces Office
255 East Lohman Ave, Las Cruces, NM 88001
575-915-0614

Campaign for Change - Anthony Office
880 Anthony Drive, Suite 13, Anthony, NM 88021
575-805-1276

Campaign for Change - Deming Office
501 East Spruce Street, Suite B, Deming, NM 88030
575-915-2449

Campaign for Change - Alamogordo Office
1517A 10th Street, Alamogordo, NM 88310
575-434-8388

Limited Parking near site in public lots. Carpooling strongly encouraged. For security reasons, do not bring bags or umbrellas. Please limit personal belongings. No signs or banners permitted.

New SurveyUSA Poll: Obama Up By 7% in New Mexico

The positive news continues. According to the latest SurveyUSA poll conducted in New Mexico on October 12-13, 2008 for KOB-TV, Barack Obama has a seven point lead over John McCain in the state, 52-45%. The results show only 1% undecided, with 2% intending to vote third party. A total of 568 likely and actual voters was included, and the margin of error was plus or minus 4.2%. The numbers have remained consistent over the past four weeks:

Compared to identical SurveyUSA polls released two and four weeks ago, little has changed; Obama has consistently taken 52% of the vote; McCain has taken 44%, 44%, and now 45%. While overall numbers remain steady, there is some offsetting movement along age lines, with some movement toward McCain among the youngest voters, and offsetting movement toward Obama among older voters.

Obama continues to need the support of Hispanic Americans and Native Americans to win the state. McCain leads by 13 points among New Mexico whites; Obama leads by 45 points among Hispanics and by 29 points among Natives.

... 13% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; independents are split.

... Absentee voting began in New Mexico six days ago. Among the 10% of New Mexico voters who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 23 points. Among likely voters, Obama leads by 6.

Obama's lead seems to be fairly consistent around New Mexico. He led in Bernalillo County 53-44%, compared with 51-45% in the rest of the state.

Obama was ahead with male voters (50-46%) and female voters (54-43%), and with all age groups except those 35-49, where McCain had a slight edge (50-49%). Obama had his biggest lead with voters aged 50-64 (58-38%).

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10/15: AZ Gov. Napolitano to Stump for Obama at Rally in Los Lunas

On Wednesday, Governor Janet Napolitano from Arizona -- who was born and raised in Albuquerque --will host a Change We Need rally in Los Lunas. She'll talk to supporters about the importance of this year’s election and encourage voters to participate in Early Vote. The rally is scheduled for 3:05 PM at 435 Luna Street SE on October 15, 2008. Click for map. The public is invited.

Gov. Napolitano will also host two invitation-only events in Albuquerque on Wednesday. One is a roundtable to discuss New Mexicans’ concerns with the current state of the economy and its impact on women. Napolitano and members of the local community will discuss Senator Obama’s commitment to equal pay and his plan to strengthen the economy and support New Mexico’s working families. Napolitano will later host a presidential debate watch party at the home of an Obama supporter in Albuquerque with women from around the region.

Tonight in Espanola: Mayor Joe Maestas to Host Economic Roundtable and Discussion of Obama Economic Plan

Espanola Mayor Joe Maestas will host a roundtable this evening, October 14, 2008, to discuss New Mexican’s concerns with the current state of the economy. Mayor Maestas and members of the Espanola community will discuss the economic challenges faced by New Mexican families from skyrocketing healthcare costs to the housing crisis. They will also discuss Sen. Obama's plan to strengthen the economy and support working families. The event is set for 6:30 PM at the Espanola Senior Services Center at 735 Vietnam Veterans Memorial Road.

Weekend Rally in Corrales NM: 8-Year Old Recites 'Yes We Can'

We are gonna win this thing -- IF we keep on working straight through November 4th. Only 22 more days! Have you voted early yet? You can do it in person at your County Clerk's office. Or you can request an application to vote early via mail-in ballot. Starting on October 18, you can do it in person at additional early polling places in most counties. Vote early and then volunteer to work for a candidate on Election Day on November 4th. See www.voteforchange.com/ and the Obama New Mexico page. Also see my previous post that provides more info on early voting.

Just Announced: Biden to Visit Southern NM on Friday

Northern Navajo Nation Shiprock Parade (see more)

The Obama campaign today announced that Senator Joe Biden will visit New Mexico this week. Biden will host a Change We Need rally in Southern New Mexico on Friday, October 17th. More details will be announced as soon as they are available.

10/15: PAC505 to Host Prez Debate Watch at UNM Sub

PAC505, the TRILLION Space, and SOY DE BURQUE invite you to Albuquerque's progressive epicenter, UNM Main Campus, this Wednesday to watch the third and final debate in this historic election. The debate will be shown at the SUB, Ballroom A, via in-house LCD projection and audio.

DJ Chach will set the tone before the main event and PaperChasePress will provide its screenprinting services before and during the show: bring an article of clothing and five bucks and PaperChasePress will brand it with your choice of Obama or other design. The image of the debate will be framed by projections of liveblogs from opposite sides of the political spectrum, so you can watch the spin as it happens. We will place a television and chairs in the SUB lobby for parents with children who might not want to be restrianed by the theater-like setting of the ballroom.

PAC505 tries to help motivate and galvanize Albuquerque's liberal community. Especially in light of the role that the youth vote is likely to play in this year's election, we are really excited to have the opportunity to engage and be engaged by the UNM student body this Wednesday, and we hope that you will join us.

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