Democracy for New Mexico

Lastest Rasmussen: Obama Up by 5 in NM, 6 Points Nationally

Obama has a five point lead over McSame in the latest New Mexico Rassmussen poll, 46% to 41%. Last month he was up by eight, and Two months ago by nine. Also:

"When “leaners” are included in the totals, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 43%. Leaners are those who don’t initially express a preference for one of the major candidates. But, when asked a follow-up question, they do."

... Both candidates are viewed favorably by 57% of the state’s voters. Obama gets negative reviews from 41%, McCain from 39%. Reflecting a pattern seen across the country, opinions are more strongly held about Obama. In New Mexico, 31% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while just 21% say the same about his Republican rival. Both are viewed Very Unfavorably by 24%.

In New Mexico, Obama attracts 70% of the vote from Democrats and has a five-point edge among unaffiliated voters. McCain earns the vote from 82% of Republicans. McCain leads by thirteen among voters over 65 but trails among younger voters.

Perhaps Obama will get a boost in New Mexico as the result of his week overseas, as he apparently is in the national Rasmussen daily tracking poll:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that the bounce is continuing for Barack Obama. The presumptive Democratic nominee attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 43%. Just four days ago, the candidates were tied at 46% (with leaners). Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, McCain by 55%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 63.3 % chance of winning the White House.

Alex Flores Guest Blog: Latinos Strongly Prefer Obama

This is a guest blog by Alex Flores that was first posted at Alex on Politics. Alex is from Corrales, NM and will start work on a Master's at Princeton this Fall. A young Dem up and comer, he currently serves on the Platform and Resolutions Committee of the Democratic Party of New Mexico.

Good news for New Mexico and for Democrats across the country! A new Pew Hispanic Center Poll was released this morning with the good news about Latino voters we've been waiting to hear. If current trends hold or strengthen, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado will likely turn blue in November. Further, in Southern Florida, where Joe Garcia is running a tough race against Mario Diaz-Balart and in Texas, where Rick Noriega is in striking distance of the US Senate seat, we have a chance to take elections never before thought possible.

According to a nationwide survey of 2,015 Latinos in June and July, registered Latino voters support Barack Obama for President over Republic John McCain by 66%-23%! The results confirm what could only be speculated on by some confident Obama supporters during the contentious primary race earlier this year: despite Obama's difficulties with Latinos against Senator Hillary Clinton, Latinos would support his candidacy strongly over Senator John McCain.

Although Clinton won by more than 2-1 in the Primaries, and despite the problem's inflation by the mainstream media, it is evident now more than ever that Latinos identify with the Democratic Party. Additionally, the new numbers show a large number of Latinos are disaffected with Senator Clinton after a bitter defeat and prolonged campaign.

Since 2004, when President Bush claimed the largest block of Latino voters by any Republican Presidential Nominee in history, Latinos have trended towards Democrats more and more. In 2006, Latinos turned out at a rate of 40% of registrants and trended +39 Democratic. If the Pew poll is at all accurate, the new margin is +43 with much larger rates of participation nationwide. This new poll also shows that they are more than willing to vote a black man into office.

Here are the rest of the numbers:

Three times as many respondents said being black would help Obama (32%) with Latino voters than said it would hurt him (11%); the majority (53%) said his race would make no difference to Latino voters.

Obama is rated favorably by 76% of Latino registered voters, making him much more popular among that voting group than McCain (44% favorable) and President Bush (27% favorable).

Hillary Clinton's ratings among Latino registered voters are 73% favorable and 24% unfavorable; Obama's are 76% favorable and 17% unfavorable.

Also, more than three-quarters of Latinos who reported that they voted for Clinton in the primaries now say they are inclined to vote for Obama in the fall election, while just 8% say they are inclined to vote for McCain. That means that Obama is doing better among Hispanics who supported Clinton than he is among non-Hispanic white Clinton supporters, 70% of whom now say they have transferred their allegiance to Obama while 18% say they plan to vote for McCain, according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Latino registered voters rank education, the cost of living, jobs and health care as the most important issues in the fall campaign, with crime lagging a bit behind those four and the war in Iraq and immigration still farther behind. On each of these seven issues, Obama is strongly favored over McCain--by lopsided ratios ranging from about three-to-one on education, jobs, health care, the cost of living and immigration, to about two-to-one on Iraq and crime.

In addition to their strong support for Obama, Latino voters have moved sharply into the Democratic camp in the past two years, reversing a pro-GOP tide that had been evident among Latinos earlier in the decade. Some 65% of Latino registered voters now say they identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with just 26% who identify with or lean toward the GOP. This 39 percentage point Democratic Party identification edge is larger than it has been at any time this decade; as recently as 2006, the partisan gap was just 21 percentage points.

This is a guest blog by Alex Flores of Corrales. Alex graduated from The George Washington University in Washington DC in the spring of 2008 with a degree in Public Policy. In the fall, he's moving to New Jersey to earn a Master’s Degree in Public Affairs from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. This summer he's finishing two and a half years of work in the Political Department at People For the American Way (PFAW). Alex is active in local and national politics, and hes' one of the youngest ever appointed voting members of the Democratic Party of New Mexico’s Platform and Resolutions Committee.

If you'd like to submit a post for consideration as a guest blog, contact me by clicking on the Email Me button in the upper left-hand corner of the page.

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Sierra Club Calls Out McCain on 'Energy Misses'

The Sierra Club is challenging John McCain on his energy policies and his campaign's behavior in recent days. They noted in a release that John McCain canceled a planned trip to Louisiana today—a trip during which he was slated to visit offshore drilling platforms and tout his misguided offshore drilling plan. The cancellation came amid a spill of some 419,000 gallons of heavy fuel oil into the Mississippi River, Following a collision of a tanker and a barge, the massive spill caused a slick approximately 12 miles long and closed a 29 mile stretch of the Mississippi River. In a statement, Cathy Duvall, Political Director of the Sierra Club, had this to say:

"It comes as no surprise that the McCain campaign blamed the cancellation of their trip to Louisiana on the weather. Apparently hundreds of thousands of gallons of spilled oil, dead fish, and oil-covered birds aren't ideal conditions for peddling a misguided plan for more offshore drilling. Unfortunately, the risk for such spills—and far worse—would only increase if John McCain and George Bush get their way and allow Big Oil to begin the 'exploitation' of our coasts.

"It's a shame that John McCain is going to miss the opportunity to see first-hand just how damaging an oil spill can be. 

"After going straight to Houston to tell Big Oil he was their new best friend, it looks like John McCain has decided to embark on a tour of our country's greatest energy misses. He's already been to Santa Barbara, he then told the people of Nevada how he wants to stick them with more than 70,000 tons of dangerous nuclear waste, and Lousiana was the site of the biggest offshore oil spill in our nation's history. Maybe next he'll visit Prince William Sound or Three Mile Island?"

The Sierra Club described some of McCain's recent campaign destinations this way:

McCain's Greatest Energy Misses Summer 2008 Tour

1. Houston, Texas—June 17
McCain announced his flip-flop on offshore drilling and received a standing ovation from the Big Oil fat cats that have given over $5 million to his campaign and the Republican National Committee. A 1979 offshore well blowout in the Bay of Campeche spilled more than 126,000,000 gallons of oil—coating beaches in Texas and Mexico with crude. 

2. Santa Barbara, California—June 24
McCain pushed his misguided offshore drilling plan at the site of a 1969 oil spill from an offshore well that coated the beaches of Santa Barbara with at least 3,234,000 gallons of oil.

3. Las Vegas, Nevada—June 25
John McCain went to Nevada to push his plans to build 100 new nuclear power plants and stick the residents of the state with more than 77,000 tons of highly dangerous nuclear waste at the unsafe and unproven Yucca Mountain site.

4. Louisiana—July 24 CANCELED 
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in more than 9,000,000 gallons of oil being spilled off-shore and at related facilities onshore. Louisiana is also the site of the nation's largest ever offshore oil spill, the 1967 Humble Oil spill that spewed at least 6,726,000 gallons of oil from an undersea pipeline. 

5. Prince William Sound, Alaska--???
The 1989 ExxonValdez disaster spilled 10,800,000 gallons of oil into the Pristine Waters of Prince William Sound. Mere months after the tragic spill, John McCain voted against requiring double-hull tankers. McCain also wants to appoint more Supreme Court justices like Alito and Roberts, who recently decided to cut ExxonMobil's punitive damages to just $500 million—the same amount the company paid former CEO Lee Raymond during his final year with the company.

6. Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania—???
Site of the nation's worst nuclear accident, 1979 partial meltdown of one of the station's two reactors.  John McCain wants to build 100 new nuclear reactors, a plan that by utilities' own estimates could cost AT LEAST $1 TRILLION. 

Click here to read more from the Sierra Club about the top three myths McCain and other Republicans like Steve Pearce and Darren White are spreading about offshore drilling.

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(Updated) Livestream of Obama's Speech in Berlin at 11 AM MDT

Lots of expectations about this appearance, which Obama is trying to tamp down some. Get the livestream here starting at about 11:00 11:30 AM Mountain time. It's also live at MSNBC, and on other sites I'm sure. Crowd estimates range from 100,000 to almost a million.

Update: Here's the prepared text of Obama's speech. Some photos:

Obama to Air New Spanish Language Radio Ad in NM, 3 Other States

On the heels of Obama’s speeches at the LULAC (see video) and NCLR (see video) conventions, the campaign today released a Spanish language radio ad entitled "Nuestro Propio Camino," which profiles the Senator's upbringing and connection to Hispanic values. The ad will air here in New Mexico, as well as in Colorado, Florida and Nevada. You can listen to it here. The English translation is below the break.

“Latinos can relate to Senator Obama’s background of hard work and commitment to family and community,” said Federico Pena, National Campaign Co-Chair, in a statement. “Senator Obama is serious about winning the Latino vote and this Spanish language ad is but one among a variety of his efforts to build on the progress of the primary.”

Nuestro Propio Camino

[Voice Over:] Some people have power and connections.

But most of us have to make our own way through life.

This is true even for the man who could become the next President ... Barack Obama.

He grew up without a father – raised by his mother with the support of his grandparents.

Obama never forgot his roots ....

He worked with churches to help families get job training and after-school care for their children.

In the State Senate, he passed a law that helped reduce the welfare roles by over 80% by helping families to secure jobs.

And despite the political pressure, Obama has stood with us for immigration reform and spoke out for our veterans.

It’s time we had a President who understands we all deserve a chance to make our own way.

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Get Involved: DPNM Committee Hosts National Platform Hearing Friday in ABQ

This invitation is from the always active Alex Flores, a Young Democrat who's a member of the Democratic Party of New Mexico's Platform and Resolutions Committee:

This Friday, July 25th, the Democratic Party of New Mexico's Platform and Resolutions Committee will host one of Senator Barack Obama's national platform hearings here in Albuquerque. You've been invited to attend the DPNM National Democratic Platform Meeting. Go to here to RSVP.

DPNM National Platform Hearing
Friday, July 25, 2008, 6:00 PM
Plumber's and Pipefitter's Hall
510 San Pedro Drive SE
Albuquerque, NM 87108

Every four years, the Democratic Party assembles a platform that outlines the party's position on a variety of issues. Traditionally, the platform is written by paid professionals and then presented to the American people.

This year, that's going to change. From July 19 to July 27, everyday people all across America will hold Platform Meetings in their own communities. From Atlanta, Georgia to Muncie, Indiana, from Bangor, Maine to Eugene, Oregon, Americans will meet to talk about what issues are most important to them and what should be at the heart of the Democratic platform for change.

The State Platform and Resolutions Committee of the Democratic Party of New Mexico is happy to host one of these events here in the Land of Enchantment.

The results of these Platform Meetings will be incorporated into the formal process that culminates in the adoption of the platform at the Democratic Convention in August. A few participants may even be invited to appear and testify at the National Hearing and at the Convention!

You can write the next chapter in the history of the Democratic Party.

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Obama in Iraq and Saturday Neighborhood Team Training

Obama in Iraq: Cheering troups and state department workers

FYI, we heard from an excellent source at Netroots Nation in Austin that the always indefatigable John Blair (no, not Jon Blair) is set to be named the New Mexico political director for the Obama campaign. Fabulous choice, isn't it? John Blair is a ball of energy directed by top of the line brain cells. Perfect.

From the New Mexico Campaign for Change:
This Saturday, July 26th, supporters are coming together across New Mexico for Campaign for Change Neighborhood Team trainings to learn how they can help Barack in their community. These trainings will help you work with other supporters in your neighborhood to get organized, build our grassroots movement for change, and help candidates up and down the ballot. Find a training in your area and join fellow Obama supporters this Saturday.

At the trainings we'll discuss our strategy in New Mexico and how you can play a big role this November. We'll give you the tools to grow our movement and reach out to your friends, family, and neighbors in your community. No experience is necessary to attend. All you need is a hunger for change and a willingness to turn your enthusiasm into action.

Attend the training closest to you this Saturday to take the next step in helping Barack and other Democrats compete in New Mexico.

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Obama: The Lighter Side

(Click on image for larger version)

Getting too het up and nerve-wracked over the coming election? Check out The Lighter Side on Obama's blog for some tension relief. Cartoons like the one above and more in the way of political humor.

Consider this an open thread. If you've got something to say (and I know you do), click on Comment below and say it.

Meet Campaign Staff at DPBC Third Thursday Meeting

From the Democratic Party of Bernalillo County:

DPBC THIRD THURSDAY MEETING
Thursday, July 17th, 6:00 PM
UNM LAW SCHOOL, ROOM 2401
1117 Stanford NE, Albuquerque, Map

Come meet campaign staff: Josh Geise from the Coordinated Campaign, Adrian Saenz from the Obama Campaign, and staffers from the Heinrich and Udall campaigns. They will be available to answer questions and discuss the coordination of the different campaigns. All are welcome.

Alsok mark your calendar for the DPBC Labor Day picnic  on September 1st honoring our labor partners. Location and time to be determined.

Obama Campaign Knock's Bush Call for Offshore Drilling

Here's the Obama campaign's statement in response to Bush's lifting of the executive order banning offshore drilling:

"If offshore drilling would provide short-term relief at the pump or a long-term strategy for energy independence, it would be worthy of our consideration, regardless of the risks.  But most experts, even within the Bush Administration, concede it would do neither.  It would merely prolong the failed energy policies we have seen from Washington for thirty years. Senator Obama believes Americans need real short-term relief, which is why he has proposed a second round of stimulus with energy rebates for working families. And over the long-term, Senator Obama understands that our national security and the survival of the planet demand a real strategy to break our dependence on foreign oil by developing clean, new sources of energy and by vastly improving the energy efficiency of our cars, trucks and our economy.  He is ready to lead such a transformation," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

And what about the Bush-McCain call for oil shale extraction? Sen. Ken Salazar, the moderate Dem from Colorado, answers with some facts. Fact, you know, those things avoided by those pushing the myth that more drilling and extraction can solve all our problems with energy. And damn the environment of course.