Democracy for New Mexico

NM-03: Lujan Raises More Than $380,000 in Q3; Debate to Air Tomorrow

Luján discusses NM Dem ticket at Blue State in '08 reception

Ben Ray Luján, the Dem nominee for Congress in NM-03, announced that his campaign raised more than $380,000 in the third quarter. This brings his total to almost $1.4 million since he began his campaign for Congress in the primary cycle -- with more than $530,000 raised for the general election.

"The people of New Mexico are excited about getting our country back on track," Luján said. "I am thankful for all of their support whether it is in contributions, making phone calls, knocking on doors or attending events."

"The people of New Mexico want to get our country back on track, and that's reflected in our large fundraising advantage," said Mark Nicastre, Luján's Communications Director. "Ben Ray Luján will stand up for the people of New Mexico by fighting for energy solutions for New Mexico's working families, an economy that works for the middle class, an end to the war in Iraq and health care for all Americans."

NM-03 Debate Airs Tomorrow
The campaign also reports they were very pleased with Ben Ray's participation in last night's candidate debate, hosted by New Mexico First and New Mexico Public Television. A tape of the debate will be aired on Thursday, October 16 at 7:00 PM on public TV and radio stations throughout New Mexico, including KNME and KUNM.

In a statement, the campaign added:

During the debate, Luján made it clear that he was the only candidate who will stand up for the people of New Mexico and get our country back on track. He stressed the need to strengthen the middle class through middle class tax relief and affordable, accessible health care for all. He related his experience on the Public Regulation Commission to the the major issues facing the next Congress, including health care, energy, infrastructure and holding irresponsible corporations accountable.

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NM-Sen: Udall Leads Pearce 58-40% in Lastest SurveyUSA Poll

Rep. Tom Udall talks about the economy at a recent Blue State in '08 reception in Albuquerque

Go Tom! A new SurveyUSA Poll conducted for KOB-TV on October 12-13, 2008 in New Mexico has Dem Tom Udall leading Repub Steve Pearce 58-40% among 568 likely and actual voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1% and only 2% undecided. A similar SurveyUSA poll released two weeks ago had Udall beating Pearce 58-39%.

Udall was in the majority among men and women and all age groups. Pearce captured 76% of Republican votes. Udall had 86% of Democratic votes and was ahead by 4 points with independents. The candidates split 49% to 49% among white voters, but Udall got the support of 73% of Hispanic voters. Udall beat Pearce with moderate voters 69-29%. Udall was ahead of Pearce with those who had already voted early by a 65-32% margin and was leading with likely voters 57-41%. In Bernalillo County, Udall is beating Pearce 59-38%. In the rest of the state Udall is winning by 57-41%.

Tom Udall with longtime progressive activist (and Deaniac) Jeanne Carritt, Blue State in '08 reception

Photo and video by M.E. Broderick.

Obama/Udall Campaign ABQ Debate Watch Parties Tonight, and More

From the Albuquerque for Obama Facebook group:

NOB HILL FINAL DEBATE WATCH AND EARLY VOTE KICKOFF PARTY AT KELLY'S BREW PUB (with the U.S Senate debate to follow): FEATURING JILL COOPER UDALL. Located at 3222 Central Ave. All ages welcome! Presidential Debate 6-8:30 PM, Senate Debate 9-10 PM. More info: Facebook

DOWNTOWN FINAL DEBATE WATCH PARTY AT ONE UP LOUNGE: Our One Up parties have all been hugely successful with 150+ people showing up to sip cocktails, enjoy appetizers, and watch the debate at this hip downtown lounge. If you haven't been to one of our One Up parties, now is the time! All ages welcome! Presidential Debate 6-8:30 PM, One Up Lounge, 302 Central (2nd and Central).

EARLY VOTE OUTREACH AT UNM: Tabling and Outreach Spreading the Word about Early Vote ON CAMPUS. Tuesday-Friday 12-8 PM (Oct. 21-Oct. 24, Oct. 28-Oct. 31) at Mesa Vista, LOOK FOR OUR TABLE. Please email mhaney@nmforchange.com to sign up for a two hour shift, call 505-553-6860, or come to our table on campus! We greatly need your help: There is early voting on campus starting 10/18 and we have to get the word out!

For more debate watch parties and other events around NM, visit New Mexico for Obama.

Details Released: Joe Biden to Host Change We Need Rally on Mesilla Plaza on Friday

The Obama campaign announced that Senator Joe Biden will host a Change We Need rally at the historic Mesilla Plaza at Calle de Guadelupe and Calle de Parian in Mesilla, New Mexico at 1:30 PM on Friday, October 17th. "Doors" open at 11:30 AM.

The event is free and open to the public; tickets are not required but an RSVP is strongly encouraged. To RSVP please visit the New Mexico for Obama page. (I'm not seeing anything there yet, but an event notice should be up soon.) A limited number of preferred viewing tickets will be available on a first come first serve basis at one of our ticket distribution locations listed below.

TICKET DISTRIBUTION LOCATIONS
**Tickets will be available on Thursday from 9AM to 9PM**

Campaign for Change - Las Cruces Office
255 East Lohman Ave, Las Cruces, NM 88001
575-915-0614

Campaign for Change - Anthony Office
880 Anthony Drive, Suite 13, Anthony, NM 88021
575-805-1276

Campaign for Change - Deming Office
501 East Spruce Street, Suite B, Deming, NM 88030
575-915-2449

Campaign for Change - Alamogordo Office
1517A 10th Street, Alamogordo, NM 88310
575-434-8388

Limited Parking near site in public lots. Carpooling strongly encouraged. For security reasons, do not bring bags or umbrellas. Please limit personal belongings. No signs or banners permitted.

New SurveyUSA Poll: Obama Up By 7% in New Mexico

The positive news continues. According to the latest SurveyUSA poll conducted in New Mexico on October 12-13, 2008 for KOB-TV, Barack Obama has a seven point lead over John McCain in the state, 52-45%. The results show only 1% undecided, with 2% intending to vote third party. A total of 568 likely and actual voters was included, and the margin of error was plus or minus 4.2%. The numbers have remained consistent over the past four weeks:

Compared to identical SurveyUSA polls released two and four weeks ago, little has changed; Obama has consistently taken 52% of the vote; McCain has taken 44%, 44%, and now 45%. While overall numbers remain steady, there is some offsetting movement along age lines, with some movement toward McCain among the youngest voters, and offsetting movement toward Obama among older voters.

Obama continues to need the support of Hispanic Americans and Native Americans to win the state. McCain leads by 13 points among New Mexico whites; Obama leads by 45 points among Hispanics and by 29 points among Natives.

... 13% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; independents are split.

... Absentee voting began in New Mexico six days ago. Among the 10% of New Mexico voters who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 23 points. Among likely voters, Obama leads by 6.

Obama's lead seems to be fairly consistent around New Mexico. He led in Bernalillo County 53-44%, compared with 51-45% in the rest of the state.

Obama was ahead with male voters (50-46%) and female voters (54-43%), and with all age groups except those 35-49, where McCain had a slight edge (50-49%). Obama had his biggest lead with voters aged 50-64 (58-38%).

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10/15: AZ Gov. Napolitano to Stump for Obama at Rally in Los Lunas

On Wednesday, Governor Janet Napolitano from Arizona -- who was born and raised in Albuquerque --will host a Change We Need rally in Los Lunas. She'll talk to supporters about the importance of this year’s election and encourage voters to participate in Early Vote. The rally is scheduled for 3:05 PM at 435 Luna Street SE on October 15, 2008. Click for map. The public is invited.

Gov. Napolitano will also host two invitation-only events in Albuquerque on Wednesday. One is a roundtable to discuss New Mexicans’ concerns with the current state of the economy and its impact on women. Napolitano and members of the local community will discuss Senator Obama’s commitment to equal pay and his plan to strengthen the economy and support New Mexico’s working families. Napolitano will later host a presidential debate watch party at the home of an Obama supporter in Albuquerque with women from around the region.

NM-01: GOP Ditches Darren White to Save Incumbents

I previously posted on the National Republican Congressional Committee's recent decision to withdraw two-thirds of its TV advertising buys in the NM-01 race between Dem Martin Heinrich and Repub Darren White (right). The cancellation translated to a loss of about $500,000 in support from the national GOP for White -- at a time when the Heinrich campaign is reporting a big third quarter fundraising haul of about $575,000, and Heinrich's getting lots of help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

I said I thought the cut-back meant the GOP believed the money could be used more effectively in other races where there's a better chance for victory. Now a story on Politico confirms that the DC Repubs are effectively ditching Darren White -- to concentrate on defending GOP incumbents whose seats are now in jeopardy thanks to a Democratic tide rising nationwide:

Darren White and Erik Paulsen were prized Republican recruits, House candidates poised to be the new face of the GOP on Capitol Hill.

But as the two head into the homestretch of their campaigns, GOP operatives say they’ll probably have to win — or lose — on their own. The money national Republicans earmarked for White in New Mexico and for Paulsen in Minnesota will likely go instead to protect GOP incumbents who once looked like locks for reelection.

The GOP now has to put significant funds into races like those of incumbent Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California who "are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise."

Meanwhile, the Dems have raised significantly more campaign funding than the Repubs:

Democrats have maintained a sizable fundraising advantage since taking control of the House. At the end of August, House Democrats had nearly $54 million in cash, according to the Federal Election Commission. By contrast, Republicans had only $14.3 million to spend down the stretch.

As of Sunday, the DCCC had spent money in 47 congressional districts. Of those, 34 are seats held by Republicans. In contrast, the NRCC has spent money in 13 districts — 10 of which it is trying to defend. As of this past weekend, Democrats have spent nearly $24.7 million, while Republicans have spent less than $2 million.

The DC Dems have been using their funding advantage to enable them to commit resources to races all over the nation this cycle, much as Obama's prodigious fundraising has allowed him to challenge McCain in previously Red States.

“If you’re a Republican in a less-than-outstanding district, you want to have taken a poll in the last two weeks no matter who you’re running against,” said David Wasserman, an analyst on House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“The DCCC has made advertising decisions that have forced Republicans’ hands,” he continued, mentioning Terry’s seat in Nebraska and one held by conservative Rep. Mark Souder in Indiana. “Republicans, in turn, need to spend in these districts. And $500,000 to the [National Republican Congressional Committee] is a whole lot more meaningful than $500,000 to the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee].”

... Down the stretch, national Republicans would like to see their troubled incumbents do what most vulnerable lawmakers do in a tight spot: Go negative. But to do that, they need to have money and they need to start soon, so they have enough time to define relatively unknown opponents before those opponents make the attacks irrelevant.

The TV ad campaign for White -- who already has high name recognition -- has been almost entirely negative, following the strategy described above to try and define the lesser-known Heinrich. Now, White won't have much cash to pay for ads to continue down that road in the last few weeks before the election. Heinrich, on the other hand, can pursue a relatively better funded ad strategy to increase his name recognition and promote his positions -- and attract more undecideds and disaffected Repubs to vote for him.

With just 21 days left until election day, Heinrich still has a difficult task in trying to put the NM-01 seat in the Dem column for the first time in its history. However, his odds are definitely improving as the GOP is forced to abandon weak candidates like Darren White to protect their faltering incumbents.

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NM-Sen: Udall at Back-to-Back Student Events Today at UNM

Dem U.S. Senate candidate Tom Udall will host back-to-back events today, October 14, 2008 at UNM in Albuquerque. They'll focus on addressing issues important to students and encouraging participation by young people in the upcoming election as well as Tom Udall’s record of doing what’s right for New Mexico. First up, Tom will hold a town hall meeting discussion today at 11:30 to 1:00 PM at the UNM Student Union Building. That will be followed by a get out the vote rally at the UNM Student Union Building Theater from 1:30 to 3:00 PM.

NM-01: Celebrate Martin Heinrich's Birthday Tonight With Bluegrass Bands at O'Niell's Pub

Visiting Iowa Congressman Bruce Braley (D, IA-01) and Martin Heinrich talk about family, the future and Congressional service at DPNM HQ in Albuquerque recently.

This is a fun one. Martin's wife Julie has invited one and all to celebrate NM-01 Congressional candidate Martin Heinrich's birthday tonight: This Friday is Martin's 37th birthday and we're throwing an early birthday party for him tonight at O'Niell's. I hope you can make it! Here's the scoop. The party is at 6 PM, Tuesday, October 14th, at O'Niell's Pub (4310 Central Ave. SE near the corner of Central & Washington). And, we're having blue grass bands play to celebrate turning New Mexico into a blue state!

In lieu of gifts, we're asking everyone to contribute at least $25 (or $37 in honor of Martin's birthday!) to the campaign. It's going to be a great time and we hope that you can make it! RSVP now.

Martin, the boys and I have been on the campaign trail for over a year and a half and I can't believe that the election has started and voting is underway. We've been to every corner of the district and we have a lot of stories to tell.

When Martin and I made the decision to run for Congress, we did it because of our kids. Like so many of you, we knew that the country that we love so much was off on the wrong track.

Two long terms of George Bush, Dick Cheney and the Washington Republicans produced both a quagmire in Iraq that's cost us hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives and an economic disaster the likes of which haven't been seen since the Great Depression.

We can't change Washington by sending another Republican who has steadfastly towed the Bush/Cheney line. We need to send Washington a message that it's time for real change by turning this Congressional District - and all of New Mexico - blue.

I hope you'll join us for Martin's birthday party tonight. Thanks so much for your support.

Sincerely,
Julie Heinrich

Note: If you can't attend, you can still donate online to Martin's campaign and help turn NM-01 as BLUE AS A BLUEGRASS BAND!

Rep. Bruce Braley was first elected to Northeast Iowa's First District in 2006 and was the first Democrat to represent the district since 1979. Sound familiar? If we do all we can to help, Martin Heinrich can be the first Democrat to represent New Mexico's First District!

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Tonight in Espanola: Mayor Joe Maestas to Host Economic Roundtable and Discussion of Obama Economic Plan

Espanola Mayor Joe Maestas will host a roundtable this evening, October 14, 2008, to discuss New Mexican’s concerns with the current state of the economy. Mayor Maestas and members of the Espanola community will discuss the economic challenges faced by New Mexican families from skyrocketing healthcare costs to the housing crisis. They will also discuss Sen. Obama's plan to strengthen the economy and support working families. The event is set for 6:30 PM at the Espanola Senior Services Center at 735 Vietnam Veterans Memorial Road.