NM-02: Internal Poll Shows Teague Leads Tinsley 46-41%

The campaign of NM-02 Congressional candidate Harry Teague has released the results of a recent internal poll conducted by Hamilton Campaigns that shows Teague leading his GOP rival, Ed Tinsley, by five points. Here's the text of the memo issued by Hamilton Campaigns:

Key Findings Harry Teague now leads Ed Tinsley in the race for Congress in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District. Democrat Harry Teague leads Republican Ed Tinsley by 5 percentage points (46% Teague – 41% Tinsley -- 13% undecided). In previous polling, Teague trailed Tinsley by -3 percentage points.

Bottomline

Harry Teague has taken the initiative in the early part of the general election campaign to strongly define his image to voters. In other years and with other candidates, winning in this district could be difficult, but Harry Teague has put himself on solid footing to defeat Ed Tinsley and turn New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District from red to blue.

Footnote: This memo is based on a survey of 500 registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2008 general election in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District. Hamilton Campaigns conducted telephone interviewing September 2-5, 2008. The margin of error for a sample of this size is ±4.4 percentage points, at the 95% confidence level.

No questions or crosstabs on this survey have yet been released, and I don't know of any independent polling done on this race. However, it's noteworthy that Tinsley's campaign hasn't released any of their internal polling results, which tells me this race isn't going very well for the GOP contender. Teague can definitely win this race. We need to help.

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