NM-01: GOP Ditches Darren White to Save Incumbents

I previously posted on the National Republican Congressional Committee's recent decision to withdraw two-thirds of its TV advertising buys in the NM-01 race between Dem Martin Heinrich and Repub Darren White (right). The cancellation translated to a loss of about $500,000 in support from the national GOP for White -- at a time when the Heinrich campaign is reporting a big third quarter fundraising haul of about $575,000, and Heinrich's getting lots of help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

I said I thought the cut-back meant the GOP believed the money could be used more effectively in other races where there's a better chance for victory. Now a story on Politico confirms that the DC Repubs are effectively ditching Darren White -- to concentrate on defending GOP incumbents whose seats are now in jeopardy thanks to a Democratic tide rising nationwide:

Darren White and Erik Paulsen were prized Republican recruits, House candidates poised to be the new face of the GOP on Capitol Hill.

But as the two head into the homestretch of their campaigns, GOP operatives say they’ll probably have to win — or lose — on their own. The money national Republicans earmarked for White in New Mexico and for Paulsen in Minnesota will likely go instead to protect GOP incumbents who once looked like locks for reelection.

The GOP now has to put significant funds into races like those of incumbent Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California who "are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise."

Meanwhile, the Dems have raised significantly more campaign funding than the Repubs:

Democrats have maintained a sizable fundraising advantage since taking control of the House. At the end of August, House Democrats had nearly $54 million in cash, according to the Federal Election Commission. By contrast, Republicans had only $14.3 million to spend down the stretch.

As of Sunday, the DCCC had spent money in 47 congressional districts. Of those, 34 are seats held by Republicans. In contrast, the NRCC has spent money in 13 districts — 10 of which it is trying to defend. As of this past weekend, Democrats have spent nearly $24.7 million, while Republicans have spent less than $2 million.

The DC Dems have been using their funding advantage to enable them to commit resources to races all over the nation this cycle, much as Obama's prodigious fundraising has allowed him to challenge McCain in previously Red States.

“If you’re a Republican in a less-than-outstanding district, you want to have taken a poll in the last two weeks no matter who you’re running against,” said David Wasserman, an analyst on House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“The DCCC has made advertising decisions that have forced Republicans’ hands,” he continued, mentioning Terry’s seat in Nebraska and one held by conservative Rep. Mark Souder in Indiana. “Republicans, in turn, need to spend in these districts. And $500,000 to the [National Republican Congressional Committee] is a whole lot more meaningful than $500,000 to the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee].”

... Down the stretch, national Republicans would like to see their troubled incumbents do what most vulnerable lawmakers do in a tight spot: Go negative. But to do that, they need to have money and they need to start soon, so they have enough time to define relatively unknown opponents before those opponents make the attacks irrelevant.

The TV ad campaign for White -- who already has high name recognition -- has been almost entirely negative, following the strategy described above to try and define the lesser-known Heinrich. Now, White won't have much cash to pay for ads to continue down that road in the last few weeks before the election. Heinrich, on the other hand, can pursue a relatively better funded ad strategy to increase his name recognition and promote his positions -- and attract more undecideds and disaffected Repubs to vote for him.

With just 21 days left until election day, Heinrich still has a difficult task in trying to put the NM-01 seat in the Dem column for the first time in its history. However, his odds are definitely improving as the GOP is forced to abandon weak candidates like Darren White to protect their faltering incumbents.

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