New SurveyUSA Poll: Obama Up By 7% in New Mexico

The positive news continues. According to the latest SurveyUSA poll conducted in New Mexico on October 12-13, 2008 for KOB-TV, Barack Obama has a seven point lead over John McCain in the state, 52-45%. The results show only 1% undecided, with 2% intending to vote third party. A total of 568 likely and actual voters was included, and the margin of error was plus or minus 4.2%. The numbers have remained consistent over the past four weeks:

Compared to identical SurveyUSA polls released two and four weeks ago, little has changed; Obama has consistently taken 52% of the vote; McCain has taken 44%, 44%, and now 45%. While overall numbers remain steady, there is some offsetting movement along age lines, with some movement toward McCain among the youngest voters, and offsetting movement toward Obama among older voters.

Obama continues to need the support of Hispanic Americans and Native Americans to win the state. McCain leads by 13 points among New Mexico whites; Obama leads by 45 points among Hispanics and by 29 points among Natives.

... 13% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; independents are split.

... Absentee voting began in New Mexico six days ago. Among the 10% of New Mexico voters who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 23 points. Among likely voters, Obama leads by 6.

Obama's lead seems to be fairly consistent around New Mexico. He led in Bernalillo County 53-44%, compared with 51-45% in the rest of the state.

Obama was ahead with male voters (50-46%) and female voters (54-43%), and with all age groups except those 35-49, where McCain had a slight edge (50-49%). Obama had his biggest lead with voters aged 50-64 (58-38%).

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