Albuquerque Journal Poll Has Obama 45%, McCain 40% in New Mexico

According to a poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal by Research and Polling Inc., Barack Obama is up 5 points over John McCain in New Mexico, with 14% still undecided. Bottom line: This is still a close and fluid race -- and we need to get out there and knock on doors, make calls and talk to our friends, family and neighbors.

The poll is based on telephone interviews conducted September 29 thru October 2, 2008 with 659 registered voters statewide who said they are likely to vote on November 4. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 points.

You can compare the Journal's poll with other survey results in New Mexico at Pollster.com. Recently, Rasmussen reported a 10/1 poll with Obama leading 49-44%, with 4% for Other and 3% undecided. SurveyUSA reported a 9/29-9/30 poll with Obama leading 52-44% and 4% undecided.

Released Results:

Statewide
Obama 45%
McCain 40%
Undecided 14%

Democrats
Obama 73%
Undecided 16%
(Leaving 11% for McCain?)

Republicans
McCain 85%
Undecided 10%
(Leaving 5% for Obama?)

Independents
Obama 44%
McCain 29%
Undecided 22%

Hispanics
Obama 62%
McCain 17%
Undecided 21%

Ages 18-34
Obama 51%
McCain 36%

Ages 35-49
Obama 33%
McCain 46%

Ages 50 and Older
Obama 48%
McCain "Just Under 40%" (according to article)

College Graduate Work or Grad Degree
Obama 60%
McCain 29%

High School Graduate or Less
Obama 53%
McCain 36%

Some College
Obama 34%
McCain 45%

Four-Year College Degree
Obama 41%
McCain 45%

Albuquerque Metro Area
Obama 51%
McCain 34%

North-Central Region NM
Obama 76%
McCain 12%

East Side NM
Obama 23%
McCain 64%

Southern NM
Obama 30%
McCain 50%

Which presidential candidate comes closer to reflecting your values?"
Obama 48%
McCain 41%

Note: On the values question, 400 registered, likely voters were interviewed statewide, and there's a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.

As usual, the Journal did not release Research and Polling Inc.'s complete cross-tabs so we don't know how the rest of the questions were asked, if other breakdowns of those surveyed provided additional data or if some results were not released to the public.

Some quotes from the Journal article by Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling Inc. on the poll results:

"For John McCain to win, he needs to get his half of the independent vote. The jury is still out on whether his maverick message will prevail. The good news for McCain is, 16 percent of Democrats are undecided: They evidently have some reservations about Obama."

"... it looks like the Hispanics supporting Hillary are coming home to Obama. Bush was able to cut into that block, and win New Mexico, four years ago. McCain has a ways to go."

"McCain's strength has been among seniors." But "as Obama begins to open up a lead, both nationally and in New Mexico, he's beginning to (grab the advantage) among seniors."

"To win, John McCain must do better in Albuquerque ... he can't lose by this kind of margin."

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