Journal Dem Prez Primary Poll in NM-01, NM-03: Obama Leads

The Albuquerque Journal today released results from a survey by Research and Polling Inc. on the Dem presidential primary race in New Mexico's First and Third Congressional Districts. Matching the February 5th Dem caucus results, Barack Obama is ahead in both Districts. He's widened his lead over Hillary Clinton in both the Albuquerque metro area and Northern New Mexico since the state's Dem caucus:

Results in NM-01: Telephone poll conducted May 20-22 surveying 402 likely Democratic primary election voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 points.

44%  Obama
38%  Clinton
14%  UNDECIDED
04%  Neither

Obama beat Clinton in NM-01 in the February 5th primary balloting in New Mexico by about 2.6%.

Results in NM-03: Telephone poll of 500 likely Democratic voters conducted May 20-22. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 points.

43%  Obama
37%  Clinton
14%  UNDECIDED
06%  Neither

Obama beat Clinton by about 3.6% in the 3rd District in the February 5th Dem caucus in New Mexico, mostly by running up margins in Santa Fe, Taos and Los Alamos.

The Journal did not poll New Mexico's Second Congressional District in this survey.

According to the Journal's reporting on the May 20-22 poll in NM-01:

• Among Hispanics surveyed, Clinton had a 10 point lead over Obama— 48 percent to 38 percent. "Hillary Clinton is still the preferred candidate among Hispanics," Sanderoff said. "However, Obama's share of the Hispanic (vote) is significant."
     
• Among all poll respondents between the ages of 18 and 34, Obama had a 13 point advantage— 51 percent to 38 percent— while Clinton led Obama among voters ages 65 and older, 43 percent to 34 percent.
     
• Among those whose education doesn't exceed a high school diploma, Clinton had a 22 point lead— 52 percent to 30 percent. The opposite was true among college graduates, who favored Obama by 21 points. The margin was even higher for Obama among Democrats with postgraduate work or degrees.
     
• Among men, Obama had a 12 point advantage over Clinton— 46 percent to 34 percent. Among women, the two were practically even.

According to the Journal's reporting on the May 20-22 polling in NM-03:

• Among college graduates, Obama held a 17 point advantage over Clinton— 49 percent to 32 percent. The two candidates were practically tied among those whose education didn't exceed a high school diploma, though Clinton had at least a small edge among Democrats with some college time.
     
• While support from Hispanic voters elsewhere in the country has been a major advantage for Clinton, she had a 6 point margin over Obama among Hispanics in the 3rd District— 44 percent to 38 percent. "Hillary Clinton is still the preferred candidate among Hispanics. However, Obama's share of the Hispanic (vote) is significant," Sanderoff said.
     
• Clinton had the support of 42 percent of the women surveyed, compared with 36 percent for Obama. Among men, Obama had a 21 point advantage— 52 percent to 31 percent.
     
• On the 3rd District's conservative east side, which includes Portales, Clovis and Clayton, Clinton had a 26 point lead— 46 percent to 20 percent. In the north-central area, which includes Santa Fe, Obama had a 7 point advantage.
     
• In the reverse of what's often been the case nationally, Clinton edged Obama among younger voters— 44 percent of those age 18-34 backed her, compared with 40 percent for Obama. Obama had the support of more voters ages 35-64.

Clinton edged Obama by 1,709 votes statewide to win New Mexico's Super Tuesday Democratic presidential caucus in February, mostly by winning downstate in rural areas of the Second District and on the rural east side of the state generally.

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