NM-01, NM-03 Journal Polls: Heinrich, Lujan Ahead But Undecideds High

Results from the Albuquerque Journal's telephone polling of Democrats in the First and Third Congressional Districts by Research and Polling Inc. were released in this morning's paper. Martin Heinrich and Ben R. Lujan, Jr. were the winners in the NM-01 and NM-02 Dem primary race polls for U.S. House seats, respectively, but there were high percentages of undecided voters in each contest. This, despite there being only nine days until the June 3rd primary election, and early voting already underway.

The paper quotes David Wasserman, the Cook Political Report editor who covers House races, on the high percentage of undecideds: "I would definitely expect for voters to realize in the final weeks of the campaign that there is an election going on."

Surprising, at least to me, was the second place finish in NM-01 by former NM Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. Vigil-Giron got into the race late, had to gather additional signatures to get on the ballot and has run what can only be called a poorly funded, low-key campaign. In the reporting period that ended May 14, Vigil-Giron said she'd raised only $18,000 to date and had spent only about $15,000. Heinrich has raised a total of $733,000 in donations and spent almost $525,000, according to his report. Heinrich would seem to have a strong edge over Vigil-Giron going into the primary as he can spent significantly more on TV ads, mailers and GOTV efforts in the final days of the primary.

In a polling universe where 29% are undecided after months of primary race events, maybe it isn't surprising after all that name recognition appears to be a big factor. Despite campaigning longer than Vigil-Giron and airing one TV ad to none by Vigil-Giron, Lujan Grisham garnered only 10% of the votes in the sample. She has to be disappointed.

In NM-03, the race appears tight between frontrunner Lujan and second place finisher Don Wiviott. Given that a third of voters sampled were still undecided, this race could still go either way. Although Wiviott has more money at his disposal, Lujan seems to have enough to stay up on TV with his ads and to conduct an effective campaign in the final days. Shendo finished a distant fourth, despite the media blitz that followed his allegations about Lujan's "life style." Part of the polling in this race was done after Shendo's accusations received widespread attention in the media and blogs, but they appeared to have little or no affect on the results, according to Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling Inc.

Polling results NM-01 Congressional Dem Primary: Telephone interviews were conducted on May 20-22 with 402 registered Democrats in the 1st District who have a record of primary voting. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 points.

34%  Martin Heinrich
23%  Rebecca Vigil-Giron
10%  Michelle Lujan Grisham
04%  Robert Pidcock
29%  UNDECIDED

Polling results NM-03 Congressional Dem Primary: Telephone interviews were conducted May 20-22 with 500 registered Democrats in the 2nd District who said they were likely to vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 points.

29%  Ben R. Lujan, Jr.
23%  Don Wiviott
07%  Harry Montoya
05%  Benny Shendo, Jr.
02%  Jon Adams
01%  Rudy Martin
33%  UNDECIDED

Once more, the Albuquerque Journal continued its irritating ane unexplained practice of neglecting to release complete data on the polling -- no info on the questions asked and provision of only hit and miss data on the demographic cross-tabs for either race.

According to the Albuquerque Journal article on the NM-01 race:

Any clue to how the undecideds will vote might be found in the breakdown of the Democrats polled who are Hispanics or who have a high school diploma or didn't complete high school. Those groups were the most likely to be undecided, and those groups also tipped more in Vigil-Giron's favor than for any other candidate.

Heinrich found his strongest support among Anglos and the most educated Democrats, and he topped the field among those polled from 18 to 34 years old, 35 to 49, 50 to 64 and 65 and over. He also led among males and females polled.

Vigil-Giron was strongest among Hispanics, high school graduates and had solid support from those between 35 and 49 years old.

Lujan Grisham made her best showing among the elderly, while Pidcock found himself in the 3- to 5-percentage point range among every category of those polled.

According to the Albuquerque Journal article on the NM-03 race:

Hispanic Dems: 38% Lujan; 18% Wiviott. Anglo Dems: Wiviott 34%; Lujan 22%

"The ethnicity of a candidate is oftentimes a major predictor of how people will vote and this race is no exception," Sanderoff said.

The highest percentages of voters who said they were still undecided were in Rio Rancho in Sandoval County and the district's east side, which includes Clovis and Portales.

Lujan outpolled Wiviott among men and women across the board. Thirty-one percent of men said they favored Lujan and 24 percent of men preferred Wiviott. Among women, Lujan had 28 percent support, while 22 percent favored Wiviott.

The Journal will release Research and Polling Inc.'s polling on the Repub primaries in NM-01 and NM-03 next Sunday. The paper did not poll the Dem NM-02 Congressional primary race.

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