NM-03: Wiviott and Luján Close in New Pollng But Most Still Undecided

The primary race is tight in NM-03 between fellow Dems Don Wiviott and Ben Ray Luján. Internal polling conducted for Wiviott's campaign shows Luján in the lead but within the poll's statistical margin of error (numbers rounded up*):

The poll of 500 likely Dem primary voters in New Mexico's Third District was conducted by Lake Research Partners from March 24-27, 2008, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%. No crosstab data is available. Click for the polling memo by Celinda Lake and Daniel Gotoff. Excerpt:

When asked whom they would vote for if the election were held today, fully 48% of voters are undecided. Underscoring that this race is far from over, the number of undecided voters is more than double the support of any candidate in the race. In the same initial trial heat, Luján leads Wiviott by a statistically negligible margin (23% to 16%), with the remaining candidates clocking in at single digits. Montoya, Adams and Shendo each draw 4%, and Martin attracts just 2%.

In other words, this race has a long way to go and it's clear that Wiviott is more than holding his own. This, despite Luján's perceived advantages related to name recognition and political help provided by his father, Ben R. Luján, Sr., who is Speaker of the NM House of Representatives.

Caroline Buerkle of the Wiviott campaign had this to say about the poll results:

Just a few weeks ago, Don Wiviott was polling in single digits. Now, he's closing in on the lead! With just over two months to go until the primary election, Don Wiviott has surged to within just single digits of his nearest rival. There's a large undecided and Wiviott and Lujan are polling within the margin of error. This race is wide open and Wiviott is surging.

Don Wiviott has the momentum. These encouraging numbers show that Don's commitment to our shared values is beginning to resonate among the electorate. They also show that the voters - not the insiders - will decide this nomination.

Don Wiviott said:

"I am very humbled by the outpouring of support our campaign continues to generate. People are desperate for change and leaders who can deliver it. For too long, Congress has stood idly as Bush Republicans replace our government with divisive politics and right-wing ideology. New Mexico needs to elect leaders who will fight tooth and nail to move our country forward and put the interests of the American people first."

In a release the campaign added:

Wiviott's momentum is a reflection of his growing grassroots support from New Mexicans disillusioned with insider politics and the influence of corporate lobbyists in Washington. Wiviott believes too many politicians have lost touch with the people who sent them there and are turning a blind eye to the most pressing problems confronting Americans, such as skyrocketing gas prices, an ailing economy, and lack of adequate health care coverage.

Wiviott seems to be picking up significant momentum in the race when compared with results from a February poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the Luján campaign. Although no documentation was provided, the Luján campaign reported that Luján had 35% of the vote, with Harry Montoya at 9%, Don Wiviott at 6%, Jon Adams at 4%, Benny Shendo, Jr at 4%, Derrith Watchman-Moore at 3% and Rudy Martin at 2%.

At the March 15, 2008 Dem preprimary nominating convention, the candidates came out like this among the delegates:

Ben R. Lujan: 40%
Don Wiviott: 30%
Benny J. Shendo Jr.: 16%
Harry B. Montoya: 11%
Jon Adams: 2%
Rudy Martin: less than 1%

(*The actual numbers in the Lake poll before rounding were: Lujan 22.5%, Wiviott 16.1, Shendo 4.3, Montoya 4.3, Adams 3.5, Martin 1.6, Undecided 47.6.)

To read our previous coverage of the 2008 NM-03 Congressional race, visit our archive.