Missing the Point on Richardson's Endorsement of Obama

It's been interesting to read the commentary about Gov. Bill Richardson's endorsement of Barack Obama for President last Friday. I think much of it misses the point. Analysis has focused on two questions -- whether the endorsement will sway Hispanic (or other) voters and whether it was made by Richardson to try and secure a future post in Washington. Speculation on both counts appears to be rather meaningless at this point in terms of the race at hand.

The bottom line is that unless Clinton gets overwhelming victories in all of the 10 states with upcoming primaries, she can't come close to Obama in terms of the popular vote, states won or pledged delegates captured. Even if she won all of the contests by a margin of 60-40, a definite pie-in-the-sky scenario, she'd still likely be behind in all three categories. As anyone who's studied the numbers knows, the only way Clinton can snatch the nomination away from Obama would be to a) destroy him personally or completely undermine the integrity of his campaign or b) strong arm enough superdelegates to overcome his healthy delegate lead and/or convince them Obama can't win in November.

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

In his endorsement speech, Richardson made a point to decry the negativity that's cropped up in the race as Hillary's chances for victory have weakened. It seems clear he's signaling to other superdelegates and so-called "party elders" that if this race -- that's unwinnable for Hillary unless she concentrates on gutter politics -- is allowed to continue there will be damage done to our eventual nominee with every passing news cycle.

Remember, Richardson made his endorsement soon after it became clear that neither Michigan nor Florida would be having a "re-do" of their discredited primaries. Any seating of the now barred delegates from those two states will reflect a fair and rather even distribution of delegate numbers between the Clinton and Obama camps, not any significant gain by Clinton. The handwriting is on the wall and Richardson made a strong pitch for the Party to begin rallying around the inevitable winner. There's no up side to allowing the Clinton campaign to damage our nominee despite having virtually no chance of victory based on conventional measurements.

The Numbers
Obama has won 30 contests to Clinton's 14, and has 1418 delegates to her 1251, a margin of 167 according to his campaign's math. And reports that only about 500 pledged delegates are still up for grabs, while quoting the independent website RealClearPolitics.com that puts the superdelegate count at 248 for Clinton and 213 for Obama as of Sunday. Obama has nearly a 750,000 lead in the popular vote. On Sunday on Fox News Richardson said, "The Democrats (should) come together and look at who's ahead when it comes to delegates, when it comes to the popular vote, the number of states." Bingo.

As the Baltimore Sun :

Democratic strategist Steve Murphy said the Clinton campaign is "like a lawyer with a losing case. You file every motion imaginable and hope to hit pay dirt ... The Obama candidacy would have to collapse for her to win," said Murphy, a Democratic consultant not aligned with either campaign. "Their real strategy is to buy as much time as possible in the hope that that will happen."

Tell It Like It Is
There are not many Dems who have the chutzpah or clout to confront Hillary and the former President with the facts, and be heard. I firmly believe that if Hillary were any other candidate in a similar situation, she would have been "encouraged" to get out of the race weeks ago.

As it is, even those within the Clinton campaign's inner circle who have accepted the realities in this race are reportedly fearful of speaking their truth to the former President and First Lady. But Richardson, with his close relationships to Bill and Hillary and his experience within the Clinton administration, has both the standing and the nerve to urge the power duo to face the music. Richardson has the prominence on the national stage necessary to attract big media attention to the dilemma and underline the dangers of continuing down this path so that fellow superdelegates and opinion makers get the message.

Richardson may well gain some voters for Obama, and he may well be angling for a future job in Washington, but neither factor will change the shape of the race one iota. I think the real meaning of his endorsement has to do with convincing the Party that we need to begin closing down the nomination process so we can concentrate on confronting McCain and gaining strength for the general election.

Despite the fact that Clinton's chief strategist, Mark Penn, has claimed that Richardson's endorsement is meaningless -- too little too late -- I notice that the Clinton camp's number one media mouthpiece, James Carville, wasted no time in coming forth to demean Richardson. His "Judas" remark shows just how worried the Clintons are about Richardson calling attention to the fact that the sun is finally beginning to set on their dreams for a restoration.

Richardson https://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-responded this way to Carville's slur:

"I'm not going to get in the gutter like that. And you know, that's typical of many of the people around Senator Clinton. They think they have a sense of entitlement to the presidency." Richardson was energy secretary and United Nations ambassador for President Bill Clinton, and the Clintons seem more than a little angered at his endorsement of Clinton's rival.

The strong blow back from the Clinton campaign and their allies demonstrates how much persuasive power Richardson still has with other power players in the Party. At least I hope so, for the good of the Party and the nominee who's pretty much sealed the deal.