Democracy for New Mexico

Just So We Don't Forget ...

Big Mo Continues for Obama Beyond Super Tuesday

Obama fans in Barrow, Alaska, northernmost point in U.S.

Obama won 13 states out of 22 that held Dem contests on Super Tuesday, and had healthy margins in other states that will earn him delegates. His victories were in Alabama, Alaska, Connecticut, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota , Missouri, North Dakota, Utah. He may still pull out a win in New Mexico, as well. Click for CNN New Mexico results. Click for CNN Super Tuesday results (all states).

Clinton's performance was flat in that she won no states that were unexpected, and she lost in a few -- like Missouri and Connecticut -- where she had maintained huge leads only weeks before the primaries. She prevailed in eight states and one territory: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and American Samoa.

Up until a few weeks ago, Hillary was expected to dominate the Super Tuesday states to such an extent that she would drive Obama from the race. His big mo after South Carolina has clearly changed the trajectory of the quest for the Dem nomination.

The final numbers in the February 5th contest for delegates are not yet available. Delegate allocation is a tricky business. According to a late-nite prediction on MSNBC, however, Obama may have a total of 841 delegates versus Clinton's 837 (plus or minus 10 delegates) once the numbers are crunched from Super Tuesday. It may or may not be accurate.

These totals don't include the super delegates, who are Dem elected officials or other Party insiders and who can vote for whomever they choose at the convention. I don't believe Clinton's numbers include delegates from her dubious wins in Florida and Michigan -- states that bucked DNC rules by moving up their primaries. The DNC has ruled that the pledged delegates from those two states will not be counted in the delegate seating at the Party's August convention.

What Next?
In the next four contests, Obama is favored in all but Maine:

February 9: Louisiana primary; Nebraska and Washington caucuses
February 10: Maine caucuses
February 12: DC, Maryland, Virginia (Potomac Tuesday)
February 19: Hawaii, Wisconsin

Next up are states where Clinton again becomes competitive, and the campaigning should be intense, especially in delegate-rich Ohio and Texas:

March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont

Booman Tribune has put together a useful analysis explaining why the BooMan thinks Obama has the upper hand in these states and beyond.

Campaign Money
Obama raised $32 million in January alone, compared to about $13.5 million for Hillary, and the majority of his new and small donors are nowhere near their contribution limits. Many of Hillary's donors aren't able to donate any more, having reached their primary contribution caps, so it's a good bet that Obama will outraise Clinton again this month. Flush with cash, Obama will be able to devote more resources for organization and ads than Clinton in many places.

(Updated) Results: 2008 Super Tuesday

Updated NM results from KOAT as of Wednesday morning (does not include almost 17,000 provisional ballots, which may or may not be valid, that will start being counted at Noon). Dem State Party Chair Brian Colon told the AP that results from four precincts were still being delayed this morning -- three from Rio Arriba County and one from Sandoval County. DPNM Results page.

2008 New Mexico Democratic Caucus Candidate Votes Percent Winner Hillary Clinton 65,845 48% < Barack Obama 65,728 48% < Bill Richardson 1,174 1% < John Edwards 2,013 1% < Joe Biden 112 0% < Chris Dodd 68 0% < Dennis Kucinich 496 0% < Uncommitted 405 0% < Precincts Reporting - 181 out of 184 - 98%

Updated NM results from KOAT as of a few minutes before 1:00 AM:

2008 New Mexico Democratic Caucus Candidate Votes Percent Winner Hillary Clinton 62,802 48% < Barack Obama 63,030 49% < Bill Richardson 1,124 1% < John Edwards 1,966 2% < Joe Biden 102 0% < Chris Dodd 67 0% < Dennis Kucinich 482 0% < Uncommitted 344 0% < Precincts Reporting - 175 out of 184 - 95% /td>

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Updated as of Midnight Mountain Time:
Still waiting on New Mexico results. Most vote totals in from small or sparsely populated counties. Santa Fe is the only more populated county to report so far. Keep checking results at the NM Dem Party website. From the looks of things we'll probably have a pretty even delegate split between Obama and Clinton here. Here's the CNN exit polling on New Mexico, which shows a narrow Obama win.

Site Problems
Mary Ellen was a Caucus site manager and didn't get home until about 10 PM, tired to the bone and starving. No food at the site and no time to stop and send out for any or to consume it if any was at hand. No one could take any breaks as the voters just kept on coming from Noon to 7. She reports the volunteers she met from other sites were in the same shape after being completely overwhelmed all day.

It is a crazy thing for a party to try and run 184 voting sites across the state, plus all the rest that goes with a statewide election, with a volunteer staff that's maybe half of what it should be and only a few paid staffers. I mean half of what it should be with a normal turnout, not this huge one. There weren't enough tables, ballots, or just about anything else. This was awful for voters in many areas and awful for the volunteers trying to perform miracles with the numbers and resources they had.

Caucus volunteers were very hard to attract in places like Bernalillo County. People are busy. People aren't interested. People are content to leave the work to others and complain. The unpaid county and state officers worked like dogs, as did the paid state party staff. You can imagine which party members weren't around to help in any way. They all hold offices or are candidates or are "name" politicos or big Dem donors. No sign of them anywhere work was being done, or where a few pizzas or donuts might be welcome. Very troubling, to say the least. I wonder what the former presidential candidate and all his pals did all day and into the night. After all, a Caucus was originally his idea.

Right now:

CLINTON
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma
Tennessee

OBAMA
Alabama 
Alaska
Connecticut 
Colorado
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota 
Missouri
North Dakota
Utah

Basically, Clinton won states close to Arkansas and close to New York where the Clinton organization goes back years. California is a similar story, with the Clintons having spent many years nurturing their political network. Huge night for Obama, meeting or exceeding expectations while Clinton did the opposite. She didn't win enough states or by big enough margins where she did win to dominate, as had been expected up until the last few days. The Obama campaign had said if they could stay within 100 delegates of Hillary, it would be a big victory. Obama did much better than that.

MSNBC's political analyst last had projected delegate totals with Obama up by 4 delegates with an interpretation generous to the Clinton campaign and a warning it could change by 10 delegates either way. Truly an amazing achievement, most of which was accomplished during about a two-week period of surging numbers for Obama. Now the energies of the race move up an octave and the battle continues, delegate by delegate.

CNN will have results for all states here or you can visit the New Mexico page. Here's where the NM Dem Party's results will show up eventually. KNME will air a local results show from 7:00-8:00 PM tonight, along with a live stream online. Crooks and Liars has an easy to read table of nationwide results. I'm going to leave you to clicking for results on your own for now. I'm going to have dinner and relax in front of the TV. Wel, relax is probably the wrong word. Nervously stare at the tube is more like it. Hey, lots of others are live blogging this thing -- why repeat the results here! I'll check in later after more is revealed. It could be a long and bumpy night.

First Dem Projected Winner: Obama, Georgia (based on exit polling)

Continuing reports that Caucus turnout is strong around the state. In Albuquerque we're hearing that sites are running out of provisional ballots, and they're having difficulties obtaining more. Provisional ballots won't be counted until Wednesday because data has to be checked to ensure the votes are valid. The waits are in the general range of 30 minutes to an hour, with lines snaking through the sites and out the doors in some places. Caucus sites are open from Noon to 7:00 PM tonight. If you're in line by closing time, you'll be allowed to vote. If you need info on where to vote, check out our left-hand sidebar for links.

Problems are being reported in many voting sites nationwide, with unprecedented turnouts in many areas.

NM Senate Finance Retaliates Against Air, Land, Water Protections

This is alarmingly childish and damaging: As reported in today's Albuquerque Journal: "The budget (HB 2) by the Senate Finance Committee ... would cut money and legal staff for two state agencies that have drawn criticism from some legislators for proposed tougher regulations on the oil and gas industry and vehicle emission standards."

Governor Richardson's blog also weighs in on the cuts: "The Senate Finance Committee tucked cuts into its version of the state budget that would essentially punish state agencies that have the audacity to hold oil and gas companies accountable for protecting New Mexico’s environment. The budget cuts look like an effort to retaliate against tough but fair rules and regulations implemented by the Richardson Administration to protect the environment."

Conservation Voters of New Mexico released the following statement today on the clearly retaliatory actions by Senate Finance, which is chaired by Sen. John Arthur Smith, a Deming Democrat:

SANTA FE – Conservation Voters New Mexico and many of its ally environmental organizations are calling for the reinstatement of $500,000 in cuts against important positions in the Environment Department and the Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department (EMNRD) by the State Senate Finance Committee. The cuts remove four staff attorneys from the Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department and two staff attorneys from the Environment Department. Those staff positions serve as important resources to agencies such as the Environmental Improvement Board and the Oil Conservation Division, who under the authority of state statue, have been working to strengthen protections against environmental and health threats such as vehicle emission air pollution and ground water contamination throughout New Mexico.

“These agencies have worked diligently to protect the health and well being of New Mexicans -- and as a result they’re being punished by a handful of legislators,” said Sandy Buffett, Executive Director of Conservation Voters New Mexico. “I imagine these legislators have kids and grandkids who depend on clean air and clean water. It’s truly baffling what would motivate them to put the interest of polluters ahead of our childrens’ health and the well-being of the environment that they will inherit.”

With this action, the resources for these six staff attorneys will be diverted to positions within the Attorney General’s Office. “This re-shuffling appears to be in direct retaliation for the environmental and energy agencies doing their job,” adds Buffett. 

Conservation Voters New Mexico is organizing constituents in each of the related legislator’s districts to call upon them to reverse this action and return funding for the six FTEs into House Bill 2. A conference committee of the House and Senate Leadership is expected to take the matter up later this week.

For more information, please contact Sandy Buffett, Executive Director of Conservation Voters New Mexico, at 270-5743.

Snowy Caucus Day in New Mexico 2008

Update: A story in the Albuquerque Tribune about Caucus turnout is entitled, "Overwhelming interest surprises New Mexico Democrats."
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Snow frosted our Obama sign this morning in Albuquerque, on New Mexico's Democratic Presidential Caucus Day 2008. We got an inch or two overnight, but most of it will be gone by the time the Caucus sites open at Noon. Up north, things will be a bit more dicey. The Chama area got the most snow with four feet falling over two days in some spots, creating emergency conditions and closing many roads. Yesterday, Gov. Richardson declared Chama and the rest of Rio Arriba County to be a disaster area, and today he ordered more than a dozen National Guard troops to assist with relief efforts there.

My block in ABQ: Obama signs stuck in snow this morning.

Taos blogger FarrFeed has this to say today about the snow in his area:

We were supposed to get less than two inches overnight, but there are knee-deep drifts in places. About 10 -12 inches overall, and it’s still snowing ... The votes from Taos County are going to be way down, absolutely ... Most of the roads in this part of the state are closed. ALL the mountain passes are closed.

The Santa Fe area is reportedly icy in places, but passable. There was a two-hour delay in school openings this morning there, as well as similar delays in the East Mountains outside Albuquerque. Most areas of the state should be just fine by Noon, after the sun has had a chance to heat things up.

If you've been out to vote, head on over to where they're collecting info on the weather, turnout and level of enthusiasm around the state.

The Official State Question: Red or Green?
According to blogger KathyF at What Do I Know, a Democrat abroad and former Albuquerque resident who helped run the Dean campaign in New Mexico last caucus season, Obama is red chile, Hillary is green. We think you have it just right, Kathy! Of course, our house is partial to the RED:

Snowy backyard in the high desert with arching hollyhock remnants:

Click on photos for larger images. All photos by M.E. Broderick.

Guest Blog: Why New Progressives Should Support Obama

This is a guest blog by Eric Griego, Moe Maestas and Javier Benavidez:

It is rare in American politics that a leader emerges who inspires people to look beyond their political party, their race, or their gender.  A leader who truly restores faith in the idea that we are all in this together and that it is still possible to change America for the better.  We believe Barack Obama is that leader.

With a few notable exceptions, the two remaining Democrats have similar platforms.  Obama has been a strong and steady opponent of the war in Iraq.  Clinton voted to go to war.  Obama has the most progressive position on immigration, including a path to citizenship. Clinton flip flopped on the issue of issuing drivers’ licenses to immigrants to protect public safety.  While Clinton is as hawkish as conservative Republicans on using diplomacy, Senator Obama believes we should never negotiate out of fear, but we should never fear to negotiate with some of our toughest enemies.  Not with a blank check and no agenda, but with an earnest resolve to move diplomacy where we can.  Instead of forcing people who cannot afford insurance to buy it, Obama’s healthcare plan focuses on cutting costs.  Clinton’s plan looks a lot like the failed and underfunded Massachusetts model.

Almost 50 years ago, another young Senator inspired a nation with his message of unity and bold change for America.   His name was John F. Kennedy.  Like Senator Obama he challenged Americans to believe that we could change history by making America work for all of us again.  He was not the typical candidate.  He was young.  He was from a religious group (Catholics) that had never fielded a Presidential candidate.   Some people at the time said he was a gamble.  However, his bold plan for America changed the course of history.

One of JFK’s closest allies in the U.S. Senate, was a man, who grew up in Albuquerque’s Barelas neighborhood, Senator Dennis Chavez.  Dennis Chavez co-chaired the national Viva Kennedy campaign, which helped deliver not just the state for Kennedy, but most of the Hispanic vote nationwide. It was the first time that Hispanic voters were mobilized enough to determine the outcome of a national campaign.

Sadly, the Clinton campaign is claiming that Hispanics are monolithic and according to her pollster, Sergio Bendexin, will not support a Black candidate.  The myth of a brown-black rift is just that – a myth.  A fairytale if you will.  As Time magazine pointed out, Hispanics have helped elect several big city Black mayors from Harold Washington in Chicago to Wellington Webb in Denver.  Here in New Mexico Obama’s state campaign co-chair James Lewis was elected by an overwhelming Democratic majority – most of whom were Hispanic.

This should not be a black vs. white election, or even a black vs. brown election.  It should also not be a man vs. women election. It should be a future vs. the past election.  An innovation vs. the status quo election.  Color, gender or age should be irrevelant.

In the end, the differences between Obama and Clinton are minor compared to the Republican alternatives.  Both Obama and Clinton are more than qualified to be President.  The real question is whether we want a new direction, a fresh approach, a new way.  For those of us who are trying to be part of a new kind of politics here in New Mexico, we think Obama offers the best hope for our future. 

We hope you will join us.

Fired Up, Ready to Go Song: Pass It On

Seattle Musicians: Read about it.

VOTE: NOON TO 7:00 PM

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2008

Come wind, come rain, come snow

What Will Super Tuesday Bring?

Plus Alaska and American Samoa

Super Tuesday states. Obama has had incredible momentum since South Carolina, and he's been making big polling gains on Two-For-The-Price-Of-One Clinton in states like California, Massachusetts and New Jersey. Some of the national polls show them in a statistical dead heat. Still, Clinton may well hang on in California and beyond tomorrow. New Mexico appears to be up for grabs and anybody's guess. Turnout is everything.

Obama is moving up fast but he hasn't crested yet, so he'll probably lose any number of states, most of them by single digits. In some places, not enough people were exposed to him or his wife, Michelle, in time for an out-and-out victory. In others, where early voting is big, many marked their ballots for Hillary before Obama's big mo got going, or they voted for Edwards thinking he'd still be in the race on Super Tuesday.

Obama's Goal: Stay Competitive
The point is that Obama doesn't need to win the majority of states tomorrow to "win" in the long run. What he needs to do is win a few and come close in others to show that Hillary's trajectory has been flat as a pancake since the early contests. Obama must collect enough delegates to stay close and that will equal the equivalent of a victory, for now.

Just two weeks ago polls were predicting a Clinton blow-out in many locales. Now the margins between the two candidates have gotten smaller in some places with each passing day. Given expectations, if Hillary doesn't win big -- as in double digits -- in a significant number of states, the battle for delegates will have just begun. Unless Obama or Clinton has absolutely stunning victories across the board tomorrow, no amount of spin will permit one or the other to justifiably declare they're the big winner. Remember, almost all of the Democratic primaries and caucuses award delegates proportionately, according to the percentages the candidates get in each Congressional district.

If Hillary doesn't dominate on Super Tuesday, her campaign contributions may well begin to fade dramatically. For one thing, her fundraising operation is conventional to the max, meaning most of her contributors are already tapped out because they've given the limit. Meanwhile, it's not unreasonable to assume that Obama's will continue to gush, given the $32 million he raised in January alone, much of it from small and new donors.

Coming Up
The rest of February's Dem contests include states where Obama is expected to do better than Clinton. And he'll have more time to close the deal:

• February 9: Louisiana primary; Nebraska and Washington caucuses
• February 10: Maine caucuses
• February 12: DC, Maryland, Virginia
• February 19: Hawaii, Wisconsin

Obama is now favored in all of those except Maine. Next up, states where Clinton again becomes competitive, and the campaigning should be intense:

• March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont

Then two where Obama is favored, a long gap and then the battleground state of Pennsylvia:

• March 8: Wyoming
• March 11: Mississippi
• April 22: Pennsylvania

I'll stop there, because nobody knows where we'll be by then. Many believe we could go all the way to the August convention in Denver before we have a nominee, unless either campaign collapses or someone makes a huge error. You never know.

(Updated) Voting: Other Ways to Find Your 2/5/08 NM Caucus Site

UPDATE 2/5/08: From Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver:

In regard to the removal of the "Where do I Vote?" tool on the County Clerk's website:

The Bernalillo County Clerk's office is working diligently to assist the Democratic Party with today's caucus. 

In the preceding weeks we've received multiple complaints regarding the fact that the tool does not refer voters to their Caucus website.  The tool is based on our voter registration system, which only allows us to enter polling locations when we are conducting elections.  Since the state Democratic Party is conducting this election, we are not able to use the tool in the same way.  If a voter accessed the "Where do I Vote?" tool recently, it gave them information about how to vote in the September, 2007 CNM election. 

Needless to say, this was confusing to voters.

We temporarily removed the tool from our website in order to reduce the confusion.  In it's place, we put a link to the State Democratic Party website.

Voters may contact our office at 468-1291 to find out their precinct and polling location. Phones will be answered until polls close at 7 PM.
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I'm hearing that many people are having a hard time finding where to vote in the NM Democratic Presidential Preference Caucus tomorrow because Dem Party phone lines and website pages are overwhelmed at times. I also noticed the tool to find your precinct number is down or removed from the Bernalillo County Clerk's Office website, and you need your precinct number to find your caucus site. An easy solution is to the use the tool at the Obama New Mexico page. Just type in your info here. Granted, you'll get on the campaign's mailing list whether you're a supporter or not, but at this point it might be your best bet. Various alternative links are listed on the left-hand sidebar near the top of the page on DFNM.

Update: You can also go to here and look yourself up. It'll list your Precinct number next to "Polling place." Then go to the State Party site  (which seems to be working ok) and see which polling place your Precinct is assigned to. I was originally directing people to a League of Women Voters site but have since learned it doesn't alway return the right voting place for this particular election.

Today: HB9-Domestic Partner Bill Hearing in Senate Judiciary, 2PM

From EQNM: We're sorry for the short notice, but the Senate Judicary Committee is going forward with hearings on House Bill 9 (The Domestic Partners Rights and Responsibilites Bill) after all! The hearing is scheduled for 2:00 PM in room 321 at the Roundhouse. We anticipate the meeting will probably start a little late, so if at all possible please join us for our rally and press conference in the rotunda at 2:30 PM and then stay for the hearing. Today is EQNM Lobby Day at the Legislature. Let's Rock the Roundhouse!