Two States Down, Forty-Eight to Go

Hillary Clinton's NH victory speech

Yes, two states down and forty-eight to go. That's what Edwards had to say in his concession speech (video) last night in New Hampshire, adding he's in it until the Dem Convention in August. I hope he means it. I think Edwards has been crucial in pushing the other candidates to at least talk a more progressively populist game in terms of issues like health care reform, trade and bucking corporate influence. The longer he stays in the race, the more the issues he raises will get at least some attention, despite the media's obvious reluctance to cover him properly. And you never know -- Clinton or Obama could stumble or damaging facts could emerge that favor a resurgence by Edwards. I'm glad he intends to hang in there. I have to admit, however, that I wish he'd change his stump speech so he isn't saying the same things over and over and over at every single one. Enough about the guy with the cleft palate and the mill town already.

Speaking after the vote, Obama (video) emphasized that a second place finish in NH was still a remarkable achievement, and you can see how energized his supporters are in the crowd despite Hillary's win. This is just the beginning. I don't think his Big Mo will ebb one iota.

Personally, I'm glad we have a competitive race that will stretch at least until the Super Tuesday states, including New Mexico, vote on February 5th -- and maybe even beyond. I want to see voters in as many states as possible have a real say in the Dem nomination, not just Iowa and New Hampshire. I have a hunch this was on the minds of many voters in NH yesterday. With the huge stakes in this election cycle, it's important to see how the candidates deal with victory, defeat and the other ups and downs that come with a longer primary race. I think an endurance race produces a stronger nominee than a sprint.

According to CNN's delegate count, Obama has 25, Clinton 24 and Edwards 18. The magic number for winning the nomination is 2,025, so there's a long way to go, and the top three candidates are still fairly neck and neck in terms of pledged delegates. Time online has an excellent interactive map that tallies the pledged delegates state by state that are allocated based on primary and caucus voting.

This part of CNN's scorecard adds in the so-called Super Delegates -- elected officials and others within the Party who are automatically delegates to the convention by virtue of their positions within the Party. In this count, Clinton has 183, Obama 78, Edwards 52, Richardson 19 and Kucinich 1. The Super Delegates aren't bound to stay with the candidates to whom they've voiced their support at this time and allegiances often change as the race progresses and frontrunners emerge.

Who Voted for Clinton?
Based on exit polling numbers provided by MSNBC, Clinton won big among women, those from families earning less than $50,000 a year, union households and those over 40 years of age. It seems clear that the criticisms of Hillary at the last debate and about her tear up at the coffee shop brought women back into the fold who may have been considering voting for Obama. Obama won Independents and younger voters, but by less than he did in Iowa. I'm still surprised that Edwards isn't getting more lower income and union voters given his economic message. My guess is that it may well be a likeability issue. I, too, can have this problem with him. I strongly support his positions and the focus of his campaign, but I still have a bit of a hard time overcoming my perception of him as a little too slick. I think he can come off as more of a polished salesman than the genuine article.

Up Next
The January 19th Nevada caucus, with 25 delegates at stake, is the next major Dem contest. It was just announced that the much sought after endorsement of the powerful Culinary Workers Union Local 226, with 60,000 members in Nevada, is going to Obama. He also has the endorsement of the Nevada chapter of SEIU, which represents 17,500 health care and county workers in the state. This labor support will provide strong ground support for Obama, and the conventional wisdom is that it makes him the favorite to win Nevada. Both Edwards and Clinton have heavily courted Nevada union members in Nevada, but failed to lock in official endorsements.

The January 15th Michigan primary is actually the next scheduled contest, but the DNC withdrew its recognition when Michigan insisted on moving their date ahead of Nevada's. The DNC has said it will refuse to seat Michigan's delegates at the August convention, although few believe they'll follow through on that. All the Dem candidates except Clinton have announced they won't compete in Michigan so it's likely she'll win the state. If the Dem primary remains close through the summer, this could result in a floor fight over the seating of Michigan's delegates. Same with Florida, which also moved up its primary despite DNC threats to refuse to seat its delegates.

Here's the primary and caucus schedule through Super Tuesday:

January 15: Michigan

January 19: Nevada, South Carolina (Republican)

January 26: South Carolina (Democratic)

January 29: Florida

February 1: Maine (Republican)

February 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Democratic), Illinois, Kansas (Democratic), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (Democratic), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah