Richardson Looking to Knock Out Edwards in Iowa Caucuses?

Two sources are now reporting that Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign plans to direct supporters in Iowa caucus precincts where he gets less than the 15% "viability" threshold to switch their votes to Obama in the second round. Both the Idaho Independent and the New York Times political blog, The Caucus are essentially sticking with their stories, despite a denial from Richardson campaign officials and "clarifications" from the Obama campaign.

In a previous post I had speculated on the possibility of Richardson urging his supporters to switch to Hillary in Iowa precincts where he didn't gain viability on the first round. After all, the Clintons and Richardson go way back. Now it looks like Richardson may be pursuing a more indirect way of supporting Clinton (and himself) by first trying to help push Edwards out of the race.

According to The Caucus:

Obama’s campaign has reached an agreement with Bill Richardson for the second-choice votes of Richardson supporters in caucuses where the New Mexico governor can’t clear the threshold for competition, according to a senior Obama campaign adviser. The adviser estimated that the deal puts Mr. Obama in position to claim support from roughly half of the 15 percent of Democratic caucus-goers expected to support second-tier candidates.

In return, the Obama adviser said, Obama forces will lend support to Mr. Richardson at caucuses where Mr. Obama turns out more backers than he needs to win any additional delegates. Mr. Richardson drew 6 percent of the vote in the most recent Des Moines Register Poll, trailing Mr. Obama’s 32 percent, Hillary Clinton’s 25 percent and John Edwards’ 24 percent.

However, in a later update, they reported on a clarification from the Obama campaign:

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, responding to the report that Mr. Obama had reached an agreement for reciprocal support with Bill Richardson’s campaign, insisted the campaign had reached “no formal arrangements” with any of his rivals. But he said that “there are certainly places where our precinct captains want to work with Richardson” supporters — to gain second-choice support in cases where Mr. Richardson doesn’t reach the threshold to compete, or to lend Mr. Richardson surplus backers in instances where they can’t yield any additional Obama delegates.

The Iowa Independent had this to say:

Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign is expected to direct its supporters to caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday's caucuses in precincts where he is not viable.  Two sources familiar with the plan told Iowa Independent that the New Mexico governor's organizers have been instructed to direct supporters to Obama in the places where they have not reached the 15 percent threshold for viability.

Richardson, whose poll numbers in Iowa have hovered near 10 percent since June, may need a solid fourth-place finish in the caucuses to continue his campaign.  And he is best served by directing support away from former Sen. John Edwards, who consistently polls between him and the two national front-runners, Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, in national and early state polls.

The Independent later added this update:

Joaquin Guerra, Richardson's national Online Director, denies that any plans are in place to direct supporters to Obama on the second round of voting.  Still, our sources remain sure of what they told us, and we are confident that they do not carry ulterior motives that would cause them to lie.

Edwards has bet the farm on a win in Iowa and, if he doesn't win there, he'll face an uphill battle for New Hampshire votes, as well as more campaign cash. Even if Clinton finishes second to Obama, she has the clout and funds to carry on strongly in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, if Edwards falters badly or withdraws, Richardson may have a chance to move up into the top three heading into the New Hampshire primary on January 8th.

If the reports are true, it's ironic, isn't it, that both ultra-progressive Dennis Kucinich and moderate Bill Richardson will be trying to help Obama in their nonviable precincts? Strategy trumps ideology.

Meanwhile, several leaders on the left are lining up behind Edwards. First came Ralph Nader, then Michael Moore, then Norman Solomon, a longtime writer, media critic, and antiwar activist. Rather late in the process though, in this election cycle anyway. Round and round we go. Anything can happen in the caucus rooms tonight, but the Richardson strategy that's being leaked makes a lot of sense to me. Tonight, we should know for sure.

Also see Heath Haussamen's take on the rumored horse trading for votes at tonight's Iowa caucuses, as well as analysis at .