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Tuesday, January 08, 2008
(Updated) 2008 NH Primary: Resources & Results
Photo by Steve Terrell on the ground in NH. Go see more.
UPDATE 10:04 PM: Okay, I lied. I didn't return with updates so I'm especially glad that NM FBIHOP live blogged it. Good job. I got too comfortable on my couch watching the returns on TV like I used to do in the days before blogging, and enjoyed every minute of it. This is gonna be some marathon for our top three candidates. And sheesh, McCain gave read a horrible victory speech, didn't he? I'll have more tomorrow and so will every other blogger and news outlet! On to Nevada.
| Democrats | ||
|---|---|---|
| 268 of 301 Precincts Reporting (89%) | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 99,863 | 39% |
| Barack Obama | 93,033 | 36% |
| John Edwards | 43,100 | 17% |
| Bill Richardson | 11,656 | 5% |
| Dennis Kucinich | 3,485 | 1% |
| Republicans | ||
|---|---|---|
| 267 of 301 Precincts Reporting (89%) | ||
| John McCain | 79,061 | 37% |
| Mitt Romney | 67,574 | 32% |
| Mike Huckabee | 23,667 | 11% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 18,362 | 9% |
| Ron Paul | 16,281 | 8% |
| Fred Thompson | 2,572 | 1% |
| Duncan Hunter | 1,085 | 1% |
*********
The Manchester Union Leader is huge turnouts today in New Hampshire. You can learn more about this contest and its history at Wikipedia. Helpful sites to keep an eye on as the day goes on and results and exit polling data start coming in after the polls close:
- Seacoast Media Group
- Nashua Telegraph
- Manchester Union Leader
- New Hampshire Public Radio
- New Hampshire Political Library
- New Hampshire Secretary of State (Results)
- CNN Primary Results
- MSNBC Primary Results
I'll be coming back with updates later.
January 8, 2008 at 03:30 PM in 2008 Presidential Primary | Permalink
Comments
Yes, McCain's speech was terrible, but you could feel his ego expanding as he was talking. What a media whore.
And speaking of the media...the media was making such a HUGE issue of Hillary's win (not that it isn't their job to do so, I suppose) - but her win was less than 7,000 votes in a state where 250,000 Democrats voted in this primary, and in a state that is much more centrist and moderate than most states in the union. What did Hartmann say today - something like 45% of NH voters are independent, the largest percentage in the nation? Not spectacular.
However, 2 of the next 4 states are BIG delegate states (MI, FL) and Clinton is killing Obama in polling in those states by over 20 points. She is beating by Obama by as much in Nevada. The only state of the next four where Obama is polling head is SC, and he's not ahead there by near as much as Clinton is in the others.
I don't know why it's a surprise, but the surprise for me was that Edwards did so poorly, and is well behind in all of the upcoming primaries/caucuses. I am hating that this is not going to be competitive for Edwards. It was predictable, really - Clinton/Obama is all the media have talked about for months and they have marginalized everyone else. What are the real policy differences between these two? How are either different from the status quo, for any practical purposes? Hope we haven't been suckered, but I have a feeling...
https://www.counterpunch.org/mokhiber01082008.html
Posted by: | Jan 8, 2008 11:07:33 PM
Holy Cow - everyone should see this:
https://www.bradblog.com/?p=5530
Posted by: | Jan 8, 2008 11:11:02 PM
Reading bradblog certainly makes one wonder about the Clinton/Obama results. I too also have to think that there is something odd about Edwards lack of media attention and less than stellar showing . Let me get my tinfoil hat adjusted, perhaps there really is something to the theories of a corporate war against him.
Posted by: VP | Jan 9, 2008 7:55:19 AM
Bradblog has an axe to grind. Voting issues are pretty much the only thing they write about and it's where they get their readership so I think we need to take their speculation with a huge grain of salt. They are speculating with no real evidence as they say themselves.
I also think Bradblog's statement that DailyKos is "Clinton-centric" is crazy. If you look at Kos' monthly straw polling, Clinton never gets more than about 5% over there and Edwards is always the big winner.
The exit polls, which are almost always more accurate than pre-election polls, showed a very tight race and that's what it turned out to be. I think many people had second thoughts about Obama getting the nomination so easily. The determining factor seems to be that Hillary got a larger percentage of women's votes than she did in Iowa.
The Democratic rank and file in NH by and large support Hillary and have from the beginning with Jean Shaheen running a tight GOTV ship. Clinton was ahead by double digits in NH for most of the year. Clinton won big in Southern NH, which has become a kind of Boston metro area suburb with high numbers of working women over 40. These went strongly for Clinton.
I think Obama got a big bounce from Iowa but it dissipated over the days between his win and the NH primary when people realized Hillary could be eliminated if she lost there. I think many Democrats want to see the race continue and see more of the candidates.
Posted by: Outsider | Jan 9, 2008 9:04:55 AM
The axe that BradBlog has to grind is that we have had stolen elections and nobody ever does a damn thing about it. So when the results come back vastly different from the polling just days before, it's worth some speculation.
I have been a BradBlog reader and commenter for four years now, and there is a lot of integrity there where voting is concerned, but there are also a lot of other stories that get ignored by the MSM. For example, Brad has done some great blogging about Sibel Edmonds, the Turkish-American translator who has brought allegations that US officials are involved in selling US nuclear technology to various black market entities. https://www.bradblog.com/?p=5527
Good stuff there that is ignored by the US media.
I think it's fair to say 'take BradBlog with a grain of salt' - but no more or less than anywhere that has an agenda.
Posted by: | Jan 9, 2008 9:31:03 AM
I think Bradblog and the other election activist sites would do better if they weren't so hysterical in their commentary and if they didn't cry wolf without good proof like they are in this case.
By this time everyone knows the problems with the voting machines but Bradblog and others tend to insist dirty deeds were done because they can be done. They ignore the checks and balances that ARE in place to catch stuff like this. I think they insult the integrity of many who work the polls, are county clerks etc.
I support federal legislation that will get rid of the electronic machines and scanners but I think Bradblog and others go off the deep end too much and make the movement for better voting mechanisms seem kinda off the wall.
Posted by: | Jan 9, 2008 10:20:59 AM
I would encourage you to read the book that Bob Fitrakis, Harvey Wasserman, and Steve Rosenfeld (I think he was the third) put out following the 2004 election, titled "Did George W. Bush steal America's 2004 election?" There are near 800 pages of statistical evidence, circumstantial evidence, affidavits from officials and poll workers, that heavy malfeasance was afoot in Ohio in 2004. What was done about it? Nothing that reversed the outcome of the election. Exit polling in Ohio indicated that Ohio should have gone to Kerry. (Yes I know pre-polling and exit polling are different.) But the residuals still linger and many people, including myself, fear another stolen election in 2008 - and it could be done through a fixed primary system or a general election...or both. The point is that in this time and place, ANY anomalies should be scrutinized.
If it weren't for activists like Brad Friedman, who communicates with election officials all over the country about election security, there might not be the public pressure to make sure that our county clerks know what they are doing.
I had a long conversation with Robert Adams, deputy clerk for Bernalillo County, back in November. He told me that Bernalillo County is writing security standards and audit standards for BernCo, and will present them to the Sec of State, because there are NO security standards for elections in New Mexico.
There is every reason for people to be skeptical, and pointing out circumstantial evidence such as the disparity between pre-polling and the NH is not hysteria.
Posted by: | Jan 9, 2008 11:05:37 AM
I agree with your assessment but again I think the effort to get more security is sometimes hampered rather than helped by the overreactions of some people questioning things in a hysterical way with so many CAPS and exclamation points and twirling lights and all that.
I do fault the Democrats for sitting on their asses on this and especially Kerry for not contesting Ohio results.
I also think the election reform movement has hurt itself by being so split in such a nasty way over the Holt legislation to the point of nothing getting achieved.
Posted by: | Jan 9, 2008 11:44:36 AM
