NM-Sen: Why Did Marty Chavez Quit the Race? Door Still Ajar for NM-01 Run?

The abrupt departure of Mayor Martin Chavez from the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico on Friday is naturally spawning many theories about the reasons behind the move. Many have pointed to possible pressure to throw in the towel from heavyweights like Sen. Chuck Schumer, who heads the DSCC, and other powerful Dems who made it known they don't think Marty has what it takes to win a Senate race.

In a Sunday Albuquerque Journal article, Marty's campaign manager, Mark Fleisher, claims the decision to withdraw from the race was based on internal polling results, received Monday, that provided a dismal picture of Chavez's chances:

Disappointing results from an internal poll -- and not closed-door arm twisting from Democratic power brokers in Washington -- came during the run-up to Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez's surprise decision to quit the 2008 U.S. Senate race, his top campaign staffer said Saturday.

... Fleisher said he and Chavez began discussing a possible exit from the race last Monday when the Chavez camp got early results from an internal poll that "wasn't very favorable." He declined to provide specific poll numbers.

Who knows if what Fleisher is saying is true? As late as last Thursday the campaign sent out a fundraising email with another chance for folks to sign their petition to "Save New Mexico's Labs." This despite Fleisher's claim in the Journal article that "Chavez decided to quit the race Thursday and phoned Udall ... on Friday afternoon to inform him."

There are also rumors circulating that Marty's campaign fundraising was in the pits, perhaps because big donors were being discouraged from supporting Chavez by Dem leaders. Or maybe just because support for Chavez among Democrats seems to be at an all-time low, given his habit of backing Repubs and their views on issues important to Party members. And, our course, the support for Tom Udall for Senate inside and outside New Mexico is wide-spread and passionate.

Door Still Open to Chavez Congressional Run?
Although it has repeatedly been reported that Chavez has no interest in switching gears to run for Congress in NM-01, Fleisher seemed to leave the door slightly open to that possibility in his comments to the Journal:

Campaign manager Mark Fleisher added Chavez does not currently plan to jump into the race for the Albuquerque-based 1st Congressional District seat, which is also open. But Fleisher said he has been "surprised" by a large number of calls from backers urging Chavez to switch gears and enter the U.S. House race.

"We had absolutely no discussion about it -- so no, I don't think he's going to do it," Fleisher said in a Journal interview when asked about a possible House run by Chavez. "We'll see what the future brings.... But I don't think that's his intent."

Do You Hear What I Hear?
Remember all the "Run, Tom, Run!" cheers aimed at convincing Udall to enter the Senate race? Now that Udall is in and Marty is out, the calls have changed to "No, Marty, No!" in terms of Chavez entering the NM-01 primary contest. Let's hope that's what Marty keeps hearing above the rumble of his backers to run for Congress.

Former Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich has been active in the NM-01 race since this past April, and has raised a considerable amount of cash and wide-ranging support. His campaign reports more than 1,400 supporters, 93% of them New Mexicans, have contributed so far. Democrats seem to be coalescing in large numbers around his candidacy. And there's already an active primary contest going on, with firecracker Michelle Lujan Grisham, pro-impeachment candidate Jason Call and attorney Jon Adams in the race in the underdog category. Do we really need another candidate to compete for the 20% of the vote needed to get on the ballot at this Spring's Dem preprimary convention?

Remember, Chavez has never gotten even 50% of the vote in his nonpartisan mayoral runs. With little support from the progressive wing, and recent controversies swirling over issues like his red light camera program and Tax Increment Financing for "green field" developments like those of Sun Cal, the chances of Marty being victorious in a Democratic Congressional race primary in the Albuquerque area seem slim indeed.

I guess we'll have to wait a bit to get a definitive, first-hand answer on what's next for Chavez. Mayoral spokeswoman Deborah James told the Journal that Marty "would discuss his plans in coming weeks." Sounds like that rules out a press conference appearance anytime soon by Chavez to explain in person why he left the race and what he sees as his viable political options.

To read our previous coverage of the 2008 U.S. Senate race in New Mexico, go here. Our post archive for coverage of the NM-01 Congressional race can be accessed here.