NM-Sen: Latest SUSA Poll Confirms Udall's Strength in Primary & General

Udall (R) at Taos Fiestas Parade

The latest SurveyUSA polling of 2100 registered voters conducted for local KOB-TV on the 2008 U.S. Senate race in New Mexico confirms the results of SUSA's earlier surveys, as well as other recent polling. Bottom line at 180 days before early primary voting begins: the lead of Rep. Tom Udall over Dem primary challenger Marty Chavez continues to be daunting. And if the general election were held today, he'd win handily over either of the Repub contenders -- Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) or Rep. Steve Pearce (NM-02) -- while Chavez would lose to both of them. Meanwhile, Wilson is trumping Pearce in the Repub primary by almost 20 points:

Democratic Primary:
Rep. Tom Udall (D) 62%
ABQ Mayor Martin Chavez (D) 32%
Other 4%
Undecided 2%

Republican Primary:
Rep. Heather Wilson (R) 56%
Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 37%
Other 3%
Undecided 4%

General Election Matchups:
Rep. Tom Udall (D) 54%
Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 40%
Undecided 5%

Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 52%
ABQ Mayor Martin Chavez 42%
Undecided 7%

Rep. Tom Udall (D) 56%
Rep. Heather Wilson (R) 41%
Undecided 3%

Rep. Heather Wilson (R) 47%
ABQ Mayor Martin Chavez (D) 46%
Undecided 7%

"Moderates" vs. "Liberals"
If you look at the cross tabs data, perhaps the most telling are the numbers that show Udall winning a significant majority of both "moderate" and "liberal" voters -- putting to rest Chavez's claim that Udall is "too far to the left" for New Mexico voters. Instead, the results suggest that Chavez may be too far to the right for New Mexico Dems and not far enough to the right for the state's Repubs. He seems to inhabit that middle-of-the-road, trusted-by-neither-party netherworld that's so unpopular with voters in an era of unrest and disgust with the status quo. Or it may just be that neither moderates nor liberals trust him, based on his combative and controversial years as Mayor of Albuquerque.

NM FBIHOP trend lines from earlier polling, as well as some interesting analysis. Quote:

Against Pearce, Chavez garners the support of just 4 percent of moderates and 68 percent of liberals. Compare this to Udall, who has the support of 63 percent of moderates and 85 percent of liberals. This is a shocking disparity for Chavez, showing that liberal Democrats really, really do not like Chavez.

The same can be seen against Heather Wilson. Chavez has the support of just 51 percent of moderates and a better 73 percent of liberals. But Udall eclipses both of those numbers, with 66 percent of moderates and 86 percent of liberals.

Also see analysis at DraftUdall.com.

Undecideds
Note that undecided respondents make up only 3% to 7% of the totals, demonstrating that the name recognition for all the candidates is very good statewide, even at this early stage. With candidates as well known as these four, it may well be difficult to change voters' minds before election day. 

Where Will Marty Get Support?
With convincing numbers like these favoring Udall, you have to wonder where Marty Chavez can find voters to support his run -- how he intends to go about it. Will he trying to somehow convince voters that Udall has huge, hidden flaws that haven't been revealed during Tom's several decades of service to the state? Clearly, New Mexicans know these candidates, and I don't expect that many will suddenly change their views. You also have to wonder where Chavez expects to raise the level of funds that will be needed in this race, given such dismal poll numbers. His continued candidacy with Udall in the race seems more and more like a Quixotic quest, doesn't it?

Summary of Senate Race Polling:

• SurveyUSA Poll 1, released October 8, 2007
• Udall's internal Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin Poll, numbers released October 29, 2007
• SurveyUSA Poll 2 released November 5, 2007
• Daily Kos Research 2000 Poll released November 8, 2007
• SurveyUSA Poll 3 released November 19, 2007

There were also a few numbers leaked by the Chavez campaign from an older Lake Associates poll, but no documentation has ever been provided. Chavez admitted that the results were purchased and were actually from a poll performed on behalf of former AG Patricia Madrid when she was considering entering the Senate race.

For our previous posts on the 2008 U.S. Senate race in New Mexico, visit our archive.