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Thursday, November 08, 2007
(2 Updates) Udall Strong in Daily Kos - Research 2000 Baseline Poll on 2008 U.S. Senate Race in NM
UPDATE 2, 11/9/07: Brent Blackaby of the Chavez campaign emailed the following to me in response to this post: "Marty is not considering a run for NM-01. His campaign for U.S. Senate continues full-speed ahead."
UPDATE 1, 12:06 PM: Check out the coverage from the National Journal's Hotline of what may be going on regarding Marty Chavez and Tom Udall running for Senate. Is Marty considering a switch to being a candidate in the NM-01 Congressional race to save face?
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National blog Daily Kos has commissioned a baseline poll with the highly regarded Research 2000 on the 2008 race for U.S. Senate in New Mexico. The poll of 600 likely voters who regularly vote was conducted from November 5-7, 2007 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%. The poll results are front paged on Kos, where you can find all the cross-tab data, including favorable vs. unfavorable ratings for Rep. Udall, Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, Rep. Steve Pearce (NM-02) and Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01). Summary results emphasize the strength of Rep. Tom Udall against both Repubs in the race -- Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce -- as well as much better numbers than Chavez against the Repubs:
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Marty Chavez, the Democrat, and Heather Wilson, the Republican?
Wilson (R) 45
Chavez (D) 42
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Diane Denish, the Democrat, and Heather Wilson, the Republican?
Wilson (R) 44
Denish (D) 43
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Udall, the Democrat, and Heather Wilson, the Republican?
Wilson (R) 38
Udall (D) 55
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If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Marty Chavez, the Democrat, and Steve Pearce, the Republican?
Pearce (R) 40
Chavez (D) 39
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Diane Denish, the Democrat, and Steve Pearce, the Republican?
Pearce (R) 39
Denish (D) 45
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Udall, the Democrat, and Steve Pearce, the Republican?
Pearce (R) 37
Udall (D) 54
I don't have time to delve into the cross-tabs right now, but I'll try to get back with some analysis later today. In the meantime, go ahead and post a comment on what you see in the data.
The methodology used by Research 2000 polling is much more respected than the automated, random phone method used by SurveyUSA. Results of the most recent SurveyUSA polling on this race can be found here: Collected 10/27/2007 - 10/30/2007.
For our previous coverage of the 2008 U.S. Senate race in New Mexico, visit our archive. The Draft Udall website can be found here.
November 8, 2007 at 11:08 AM in 2008 NM Senate Race | Permalink
Comments
Barb,
This is Scott from Marty's campaign. Marty is not considering a run for NM-01. His campaign for U.S. Senate continues full-speed ahead.
I enjoy your blog, keep it up!
Thanks,
Scott Forrester
Marty Chavez for Senate
Posted by: Scott | Nov 8, 2007 2:03:30 PM
Governors Jerry Apodaca and Toney Anaya have endorsed Mayor Martin Chavez. Good Luck Marty!
Posted by: | Nov 8, 2007 5:12:43 PM
31% of all in that poll have a favorable opinion of the Mayor. 70% have a very unfavorable opinion. Perhaps, he ought to consider dropping out now and save everyone the embarrassment.
Posted by: VP | Nov 8, 2007 5:21:12 PM
VP--
What poll is that? I see 42-32 favorable/unfavorable for Marty in the Kos poll... and 55-18 favorable/unfavorable among Democrats.
Where did you get your numbers?
Brent Blackaby
Marty Chavez for Senate
Posted by: | Nov 8, 2007 5:46:57 PM
Well Barb, the Chavez team is showing a lot of class in that they respond quickly to your blog. Congratulations to you.
Terry Riley
Posted by: Terry Riley | Nov 8, 2007 7:49:07 PM
I sure hope Marty continues to run for Senate, where Udall will crush him like a cockroach. He could have beaten Heather Weasel for CD-1 any time he wanted to in the last 6 years. He didn't want it. Now is the time for Tom Udall and Martin Heinrich, who are real Democrats.
Posted by: Don Schiff | Nov 8, 2007 10:07:14 PM
I love this quote by Chavez from the Hotline article:
Chavez: “This will not be a sweet primary. It just won’t. The contrast in records between me and the Congressman won’t situate him well for the general election. …"
Just the other day Marty couldn't come up with one position where he differed with Udall, even though he had previously called Udall "too far to the left."
It's obvious Marty makes it up as he goes along. I guess he doesn't get it that a national network of blogs exists now to catch him in his lies and double talk. Join the 21st century Marty!
Posted by: < | Nov 9, 2007 12:19:12 AM
Hey Marty should run for dogcatcher. Oh wait, he's even pissed off the animal rights people, including his old pal Repub city councilor Sally Mayer, by pulling his usual strongman act with hiring and firing for the city shelter. The more Chavez talks and acts, the more votes he loses.
Posted by: Me-Ow | Nov 9, 2007 1:02:16 AM
Oops, I typed 70% and it should have been 7%, sorry for the typo.
Posted by: VP | Nov 9, 2007 7:38:49 AM
Hey Don,
"who are real Democrats"
This type of language is really common amongst the progressive circles. Are you an authority of the Democrats that can qualify who is and who is not a REAL Democrat??? Sounds pretty exclusive to me....
Here are some accomplishments of the many of this REAL Democrat...
-Post Card Voter Registration
-Early Voting
-New Mexico's Forest Re-Leaf Act
-Major amendments to the New Mexico Public Records Act
-Legislation creating the National Hispanic Cultural Center
-The Workers' Compensation Reform Act
-100% environmental and AFL-CIO COPE labor ratings
For the record... I like Martin Heinrich and I like Tom Udall, but for some reason you Democrats can not like our Democrats... hmmm???
Posted by: Westside Voter | Nov 9, 2007 12:15:23 PM
dear westside:
i have been watching you rag on about this website and participants on this website that somehow we are anti hispanic, that we have not supported hispanic candidates. In my opinion nothing could be farther from the truth. Let me list several off right now:
Javier Benavidez with a glowing post of his acheivements written two days ago.
Geno Zamora running for AG last time, Stephanie Gonzales, many dfnm members supported Jeff Armijo, and Robert Aragon running for County chair. Eric Griego, Debbie O'Malley, Rey Garduno, Diana Archuleta, Patricia Madrid many of us worked our tales off for. Bill Richardson when he ran for gov, and within his prez run. Jim Baca for land commissioner. Hector Balderaz when he was the candidate for state auditor after armijo left the race. Brian Colon for state party chair. Richard Romero is another.
It is the mayor who gets his major support on the city council by republican anglos.
I hope you reconcider your attacks on the website and the individuals who write on it. We are not anti-hispanic, what we believe in are the traditional values of the democratic party.
Posted by: mary ellen | Nov 9, 2007 1:02:35 PM
What you said, Mary Ellen.
I was polled the other night. One of the questions was, "Thinking about the race for Congress, would you support Republican Darren White or Democrat Marty Chavez," or something to that effect. The answer to that is between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Run Tom Run!
Posted by: Will Vote | Nov 9, 2007 1:15:30 PM
"For the record... I like Martin Heinrich and I like Tom Udall, but for some reason you Democrats can not like our Democrats... hmmm???"
I really don't know what that is supposed to mean. I am supporting the two Dems mentioned above because I believe in Dems with principles. Remember Heinrich fought for years to raise the minimum wage against heavy opposition and succeeded. This did not help the "liberals in nob hill" as much as it helped the people in my neighborhood. I supported RFK because he helped us and for that same reason I support Martin H. It is possible to support candidates on their background and their princples ALONE.
Posted by: A. Sandoval | Nov 9, 2007 3:52:30 PM
Sorry Mary Ellen, you must have me mistaken with someone else... I don't believe I have said anything about DFNM not supporting Hispanic candidates and when I say "our" that is not what I mean. What I mean by "our" may be seen as moderate Dems. Many progressives believe that they are bringing values something to the DPNM that were "never" there. Constantly attacking good Dems. Dems that have long, established history and track records of upholding Dem values. I am against those type of attacks.
Posted by: Westside Voter | Nov 9, 2007 4:48:22 PM
i think the 2 former govs, anaya and apodaca will hurt chaves. i wasnt impressed with em. they are not liked down south.
Posted by: george | Nov 9, 2007 5:00:55 PM
Udall will have my support if HR 333 comes out of the Judiciary for a House vote, and he votes to proceed with impeachment. If not, I will look elsewhere. Yes, it's that important. It's not ideology, and it's not partisan. It's the responsibility of Congress - a Congress which has repeatedly shirked it's duty over the last 7 years.
Any Democrat who takes Nancy Pelosi's line of thinking, that there are more important things than upholding the Constitution and holding criminals accountable, is sorely underestimating the voting public.
That doesn't mean I would support Chavez by any stretch - the Albuquerque Police Department, especially lately, has acted terribly oppressively towards peaceful protesters, as I have been personal witness to on multiple occasions. I lay this responsibility at Chavez's feet.
Jason Call
www.Call4Democracy.org
Candidate, US Congress, CD 1
Posted by: | Nov 9, 2007 6:43:59 PM
Westside Voter: What is "Post Card Voter Registration"? Who wants to send their SSN and birthdate on a postcard? I'm glad we now have a Voter Registration form that gives a copy to the voter, is serially numbered, and is tied to a registrar. We had too much fraud with the previous version.
Posted by: Michelle Meaders | Nov 10, 2007 2:45:58 PM
