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Thursday, October 18, 2007
Dem House Leaders Pushing for Madrid Run in NM-01?
Former Attorney General Patricia Madrid, who lost to Rep. Heather Wilson in NM-01 by fewer than 900 votes in 2006, has reportedly been toying with running either for U.S. Senate or the House seat in NM-01 ever since Domenici announced his retirement. She hasn't been alone. Unless you've been out of the country or off the planet, you've witnessed the names of dozens of New Mexicans being mentioned or leaked or dropped as possible candidates. Coy quotes are planted. Politicos spin and whisper. Emails and phone calls come in clusters. Even to me.
Emanuel and Pelosi Apply the Pressure
In Madrid's case, it's gotten more definite over the last few days. She told the media she's decided not to run for Senate, but left the door ajar on another Congressional run in the First District. Late yesterday, I got word from someone I met at the YearlyKos bloggers convention this summer that a rumor about Madrid springing from knowledgeable sources was circulating in DC. Namely, that Dem House Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel, along with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, were pressuring Madrid to enter the NM-01 race.
Yes, that Rahm Emanuel -- the pugilistic DLC Dem who had insisted that Tammy Duckworth was a better candidate in IL-06 -- even though Christine Cegelis had built a real following and given Rep. Henry Hyde a run for his money two years previously. Emanuel was wrong about Duckworth. She lost in 2006, and no one in Illinois was surprised except Rahm. It's also common knowledge that Emanuel fought behind closed doors against several Dem Congressional candidates who ended up winning in 2006, only to claim credit for their victories later. Rahm Emanuel has long expressed the view that DNC Chairman Howard Dean is just shy of the devil incarnate -- mostly because Dean has respect for local voters and local parties, and has stuck with his plans to organize in all 50 states. Now Emanuel is rumored to be perhaps the strongest advocate for another Congressional run by Madrid.
If what I've heard is true, I guess Rep. Emanuel doesn't see any value in the NM-01 candidacy of Martin Heinrich, who's already raised $318,000 and has been performing well in the campaign spotlight for many moons now. I guess he doesn't see any value in political newcomers Jon Adams or Michelle Lujam Grisham either. No, Rahm wants to play the role of long distance candidate picker -- all the way from inside the Beltway. He wants things his way, as he usually does, and the word is he's got Nancy Pelosi helping him make the pitch. Do they care what New Mexicans in the First District want? I think not. Emanuel, in particular, is known to have only disdain for the locals. In his world, all the wisdom (and power) is found within the Beltway in DC.
Madrid Fatigue
If there's anything afoot here in New Mexico to do with another Madrid run, it's clearly candidate fatigue. Complete with groans and cries of "no please, not again." Every time her name gets floated, that's what I hear, even from those who have been fans. The fact is that Dems worked their hearts out for Madrid in '06, only to be let down abruptly and without recourse when she performed (You Tube) incredibly poorly (You Tube) in a TV debate in the waning days of the campaign. Supporters, whether passionate or practical, were devastated. I'm sure she was too. But it didn't help that Madrid refused to demand a recount in the incredibly tight election. No one really knows why. The margin was so small it would have automatically resulted in a recount in many districts around the country.
Patricia Madrid has been a hardworking and often effective public servant for years, but I have to say that another run for Congress would almost certainly go over like a lead balloon. Most of all this election cycle, voters are clammering for a fresh perspective, an original approach, something new and inspiring. Not the same old faces, the same old targets of negative ads, the same old same old. If Rahm Emanuel and Nancy Pelosi succeed in convincing Madrid to run again in NM-01, I predict nothing but disaster. And that would be a sad and tragic thing for Patsy, for New Mexico's Dems and, ultimately I'm afraid, for the country.
New Mexico Dems know what's going on here in terms of the political atmosphere, not Rahm Emanuel or Nancy Pelosi. Chances are Madrid will make a decision sometime this weekend about another run in NM-01. I hope she makes the right one.
You can read our previous coverage of the NM-01 Congressional race in our archive.
October 18, 2007 at 10:26 AM in NM-01 Congressional Seat 2008 | Permalink
Comments
Wow - it boggles the mind that anyone would think that Patsy running again in CD-1 is a good idea... That's the recipe for wrapping it up in a nice little bow and handing it to the Repugs for another decade or more.
She can't win. It's that simple. I know many Dems who would rather sit out than vote for her. And they're certainly not going to be energized enough to get out and walk/phone/volunteer for her. I think they would be too embarrassed or humiliated to admit that they were supporting her.
The only candidate I've seen that has folks energized and excited is Martin Heinrich. I like him a lot, but I care most about winning the seat. To do that, we need maximum effort - something that he seems uniquely capable of generating at this point.
So please don't run, Patsy. Please.
This is our best shot at turning CD-1 blue - don't ruin it for us.
Posted by: Scout | Oct 18, 2007 10:56:27 AM
I respect Madrid as far as that goes but another run in the first district would be awful and very unwise. I know that she is close to Mayor Martin Chavez and that he endorsed her run for Congress last time. With him running for Senate and her for House in 2008 I have a strong feeling we would lose both seats. We can't allow this to happen. Too much is at stake.
Posted by: roadrunner | Oct 18, 2007 11:16:10 AM
No, no, no. I urge anyone who knows Patsy to convince her not to run for Congress. She had her shot.
Posted by: Old Dem | Oct 18, 2007 12:21:52 PM
As someone who worked her tail off for Patsy last year and felt personally devastated by the loss to Heather the Horrible, I am compelled to say that she is now such damaged goods that Emanuel/Pelosi would be making a catastrophic mistake if they get her to run again.
Consider the fact that Albuquerque's 50,000 watt giant, KKOB-AM, is already replaying clips of Madrid's monumental 2006 debate gaffe. In New Mexico political annals, it is the equivalent of Dan Quayle's deer in the headlights moment against Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. It is noteworthy when one screw-up can unalterably define a candidate forever after, but Patsy's debate performance did precisely that.
Madrid's unfavorables must be through the roof now. She has never stepped up with an explanation for that debate disaster. She has never even offered the answer she should have given about the Bush tax cuts. She owed us that much.
In the hard ball of politics, a sense of entitlement will never substitute for hard work and preparation.
After the enormous investment of time, energy and money that went into the Madrid enterprise in 2006, I don't believe we can carry her on our backs again in 2008. The Republican favorite, Darren White, has high name ID too -- but also high favorables. As much as I hate to say it, he would wipe the floor with Patsy in a debate. And this time, she won't have Richardson and his 69% of the vote to carry her at the top of the ticket.
So far Heinrich seems to be emerging as an very impressive candidate. He has the resume and the smarts. He's doing the hard work. He's raised a substantial amount of money. All of that, plus he's an unabshed progressive who demonstrated the courage to stand up when it counted -- before Wilson bailed out. (It's painful to recall that at this time in 2005, Patsy was letting it be known that her real inclination was not to take on Wilson but rather to challenge Lt. Governor Denish in the Democratic primary!)
Posted by: Sadder but wiser | Oct 18, 2007 12:44:55 PM
Patsy Madrid didn't impress anyone I know last year. That tinny girly voice. She even said we shouldn't have gone into Afghanistan after 9/11.
With Martin Heinrich, we finally have a solid opportunity to elect a sensible, pragmatic progressive Democrat to represent us in Congress. But I'm not too worried. Even if Patsy runs, Martin Heinrich will win the primary decisively.
Posted by: Rocky Mountain Mike | Oct 18, 2007 1:14:30 PM
Ok, i have about 75 things I'd like to say about this piece, but I'll stick to just a couple:
-You can disagree with Rahm's politics, or “pugilistic” his political style (god forbid a Democrat push back), but it's flat out ridiculous to point out the Tammy Duckworth loss, to the former Speaker of the House no less, in the face of the astounding Democratic success he helped orchestrate last cycle. That’s revisionist and completely void of perspective. Howard Dean has no idea how to manage a budget, and his big idea at the DNC is to copy a republican initiative from 20 years ago. Which may work, one day. But try giving a little credit where it’s actually do.
-Fresh faces in politics are great, and they make us all feel warm and fuzzy. The problem is, they rarely win. I like Martin Heinrich; I think he’s smart and thoughtful and would make an excellent Congressman. But he and Jon Adams and Michelle Lujam Grisham and any other fresh face have a huge, massive, 800 lb gorilla-sized problem with name recognition. That is where all of their campaign funding would go. All of it. Forget in-depth discussions about the issues or thoughtful ads about what they’ll stand for as your Representative. All you’ll get is “Hi, I’m your candidate, and here’s my limited political biography.”
-Madrid’s televised debate performance was terrible. Indefensible. She did a much better job in the first (radio broadcast) debate, but that’s really not the point. The point is that even as a seasoned campaign and political veteran, mistakes can happen. You can absolutely count on the fact that any of your “fresh faces” will make big mistakes, and more of them, this time around. What’s more, if you thought the 2004 race was overrun with outside political consultants, wait till you see what happens when one of these neophytes wins the nomination.
-As for the recount, do your homework… there’s a difference between when a margin looks close and when it is close. If there was even a 1% chance that the recount would have changed the result, Madrid would have demanded one. In CT-2, with 240,000 votes cast, Rob Simmons lost by roughly 300 votes and was told he had no chance of gaining them in a recount. In NM-1, where 33,000 fewer votes were cast, Madrid lost by more than 800 votes. A recount would have been a colossal waste of time and money. Whining about no recount a year later is just sour grapes.
-One last thing: I know how unpopular Marty Chavez is, and I'm as big a critic as the rest of you. But bare in mind that he did his part to campaign for Madrid, and in an election decided buy fewer than 1,000 votes, both Richardson and Denish were too selfish to do anything more than the absolute minimum to support Madrid. The Gov refused to help her because Madrid refused to pledge her support for his Presidential bid, and the Lt. Gov. had no interest in seeing her win (as the political musical chairs set in motion lately clear the path for her run at Governor). Think either one of them could have delivered those 1,000 votes, and rendered this whole debate pointless?
Posted by: Trevor | Oct 18, 2007 1:21:43 PM
Martin Heinrich has strong positive name ID in NM-1, as he does in many parts of the state because of his stellar environmental work.
Madrid has strong name recognition of the negative kind. She's attached by an umbilical cord to the scandals of the NM Treasurer's office whether that's kosher or not. The nonstop ads by Wilson last time cemented that into the minds of voters and it hasn't weakened. For this reason alone Madrid is a bad choice. She's also forever connected with those debate images of confused silence and also stating that big donations from lobbyists only result in "access." I can see the ads now, same as it was last time.
As for Emanuel, he takes much more credit than he deserves. In fact, grassroots action was what got many of the new Dems elected to the House, not him. If it were up to the Emanuels of the party there would be no Dems to come out to vote or volunteer for candidates given how widely despised he is.
Dean has brought gotten more Dems active in politics over the past few years than the DLC apologists have in their entire existence. The DLC types are the reason the Dem dominated Congress is rated so low now. They aren't Democrats - they are Republicans lite who are still pushing a view of the electorate that wasn't correct even in its day.
Madrid owed NM voters a recount especially since the 2004 election was so fraught with errors and who knows what else. You're the one who needs to do your homework. Google undervotes and New Mexico for starters.
Where has Madrid been since her loss? Working to build the party or find and develop candidates? No, she ran away and started working as a consultant for the big bucks. Now that there's an opening, she's suddenly interested in NM Democratic politics again. Sorry. Her time is over and if she persists in running she will be humiliated in the primary.
PS Madrid would have gotten more support from other politicos in NM if she had developed positive relationships with them in the past. She never did. She's always been out for herself and nothing more. She is again.
Posted by: DJ | Oct 18, 2007 1:54:05 PM
DJ,
Patricia Madrid gives 20 years of her life to public service in New Mexico, turning down dozens of lucrative private practice offers along the way, puts off the private sector so she can endure maybe the nastiest and most personally negative campaign in America, only to lose the closest election in the history of the state, and you're pissed that she took a step back and made a little money? That's perfect...
And hey, I understand why people despise Rahm, and love Dean. But that doesn't take away from how good Rahm is at what he does. Some people care a lot about how seats are won. I care about how many seats are won. Rahm wins; That's the bottom line for me. And it's very interesting to me that you are so ready to write Madrid off, especially coming from someone so beholden to a former frontrunner who imploded a presidantial campaign faster than anyone since Gary Hart.
For the record, I worked on election day, and i was there in the building for 12 hours every day for two weeks afterward while the disputed and absentee ballots were counted in '04. I know the law and I know the stories and I know the facts and I know the conversations i had with people from the DNC and DCCC, who have been through more recounts than they can remember, and I know the recount was a bad idea. Next time though, you should feel free to spend the time and effort and the $75,000 for a fools errand.
Posted by: Trevor | Oct 18, 2007 3:06:10 PM
Let me chime in here.
So what do you think the lawsuits were about over the 2004 election? Why have so many studies come out saying our voting system here is less than stellar? I'm glad you talked to all these people in Washingon about it. Are these the same people who helped convince Kerry not to look into Ohio?
Spare me about Madrid and her hard work. Many work hard for the Democratic cause, run for office and more. The difference is they stay after losses and keep working.
Rahm actually lost a significant number of seats. Go check. Plus winning doesn't mean much if the Democrats who win act like those who are in there now. Empty victories.
Yes the Dean campaign lost in Iowa. It didn't implode. Kerry and Gephardt teamed up to beat him there in the odd caucus structure and put up an ad of Dean and bin Laden. Classy & then we got another horrible candidate favored by the power brokers in the form of spineless Kerry. What a success.
If Madrid had been a good candidate she would have won by a big margin in a year like 06. She wasn't and she won't be again. Right or wrong people don't trust her and trust is everything.
I respect her for what she has done over the years but she is not a good candidate and that is what counts.
Posted by: West Side | Oct 18, 2007 3:44:00 PM
"You can disagree with Rahm's politics, or “pugilistic” his political style (god forbid a Democrat push back), but it's flat out ridiculous to point out the Tammy Duckworth loss, to the former Speaker of the House no less..."
WHOA. Peter Roskam is the former Speaker of the House? What rock have I been living under? That's pretty impressive that prior to the 2006 election, Roskam wasn't even a MEMBER of the House that he was also Speaker. Good one, Trev.
"Fresh faces in politics are great, and they make us all feel warm and fuzzy. The problem is, they rarely win."
What's funny is that later on in the article you go on to talk about Connecticut. Well, let's talk about Connecticut. Diane Farrell ran against Chris Shays in 2006. She had barely lost to him in 2004. She had all the name ID, the institutional support and the money in the world. She was running in a lean Dem district in a heavily Democratic year. Guess what? She lost. So did Lois Murphy in PA-6. She was another repeat candidate who came close in 2004 and had tons of institutional support.
Granted, there were some other reruns that did end up winning in 2006. And, we can continue to play the examples game if you want. But, the bottom line is that Madrid's negatives are SKY HIGH. And, just as you say Heinrich will have to spend a lot of money getting his name ID up, Madrid will have to spend a TON of money bringing her negatives down. And, acting like a calculating politician which she's doing now with her little power game ain't going to help her image. Dan Quayle couldn't spend himself out of his 'potatoe' disaster and I doubt dimbulb Patsy Madrid can spend herself out of that debate disaster.
“Hi, I’m your candidate, and here’s my limited political biography.”
Yea, and Madrid will have to spend her money saying "Hi, I'm Patsy Madrid. I SWEAR I'M NOT AS DUMB AS I SEEM ON TV!"
"You can absolutely count on the fact that any of your "fresh faces" will make big mistakes, and more of them, this time around."
Ok, this devil-you-know argument is incredibly retarded. Your logic is "Patsy Madrid is a retarded politician, ergo, ALL New Mexico politicians are retarded." Not true.
"What’s more, if you thought the 2004 race was overrun with outside political consultants, wait till you see what happens when one of these neophytes wins the nomination."
LOL. Now, this one's REAL funny. What you're saying is that a Patsy Madrid campaign would NOT be overrun by outside consultants?!?! That's one's almost as good as Speaker Peter Roskam!
"Think either one of them could have delivered those 1,000 votes, and rendered this whole debate pointless?"
No. Because Patsy branded herself as an idiot in that TV debate. It's not fair, she's a great Dem, but, those are the breaks.
Patsy should enjoy her lucrative job and let a new Dem take up the fight in CD-1.
Posted by: not trevor | Oct 18, 2007 4:03:10 PM
Trevor...
Your case on the recount is sound. I don't believe that Madrid should be faulted for that.
As for Rahm Emanuel -- he's a brilliant guy. He's also tough and heavy-handed. He's made some bad calls too. That said, I probably differ with the majority opinion at DFNM in believing he did a whole lot more good than he did harm when it came to winning back the House. And that's what I'm most interested in -- putting CD1 in the D column.
Yes, Patsy's televised debate performance was utterly indefensible. The fact, however, that she did "a better job" in the first debate is irrelevant. The point is that it was the last debate that left the indelible impression in the electorate's mind. It's what is replayed over and over again on KKOB. It's Madrid's Macaca Moment -- and I fear she can never recover from it. It's not fair. It's unfortunate. But it's reality.
In the long run though, Patsy's oddly impassioned defense of lobbyist "access" is what will do her the most long-run damage. It was as troubling as it was memorable. She didn't simply blackout and then stupidly acknowledge Heather's own talking point about Bush's tax cut. No, what was so distrubing was she was entirely coherent and came across as completely sincere!
Similarly, while Patsy did do a lot of good in her tenure as AG, regrettably what has ended up defining that tenure is the fact that she sat on State Auditor Domingo Martinez's report, which documented the wrongdoing in the Treasurer's office, instead of acting on it. Now that was indefensible.
The fact that Patsy isn't as progressive as I would like troubles me less than the practical realization that she can't win the general election. Sometimes a candidate runs a great race, comes up short, but emerges with a stronger image. That's not what happened in CD1 last year. Patsy pissed it away, everybody knows it, and what's worse -- her credibility was damaged rather than enhanced.
I just hope that Rahm Emanuel takes these facts into account when he starts moving the chess pieces around.
Posted by: Sadder but wiser | Oct 18, 2007 4:08:19 PM
I couldn't care less what Emanuel and Pelosi think, we here in New Mexico will decide who we want representing us. Both Pelosi and Emanuel has shown that they are useless as leaders, they both need to pay more attention to what they are NOT accomplishing in D.C and leave our primary to us here in NM. We all had hope that Ms Madrid could beat Wilson, it didn't happen and now it would be that much more difficult for her, I hope she doesn't let them talk her into running again. We have a very good progressive candidate, Martin Heinrich, he deserves a chance and he'll get my vote!
Posted by: VP | Oct 18, 2007 4:46:28 PM
Rahm E: OUT of NM. and STAY OUT.
Posted by: bg | Oct 18, 2007 7:49:00 PM
Patricia Madrid has been visiting NM families to recruit their young daughters. When she is in the state, she is on the move promoting young Hispanic women to become leaders. Namely Patricia Madrid is training young women to run for office. This what she is doing for democrats. She is planting saplings.
AG Patricia Madrid joined 18 other AGs to sue the federal EPA to regulate green house gases. Even though this lawless Executive will not abide by the ruling that indeed the EPA COULD legally regulate Green House gases. Recent legislation in Congress just failed trying to force the EPA to carry out it's function. Patricia has the strongest environmental record than any other contender for the house dist.1.
Why are the big DEMS pressuring her to run? The reason is that she is classified in the Democratic Party as TIER I specified by the ability to raise money.
I know that you folks may find that distasteful that pols must raise money but you are naive and stupid to think that money does not control power in this predatory country.
As for Patsy making money as a private citizen, she is at heart a true public servant. She cares about New Mexico and she means to guard the prosperity of this state and the long term well-being of it's citizens.
Posted by: qofdisks | Oct 18, 2007 10:34:40 PM
Gofdisks....i ask you politely...where has she been? Where has she been since she lost???
We are still here with our problems. I have not seen her around nurturing relationships with constitutients. Has anyone else seen her around?
Posted by: meb | Oct 19, 2007 9:16:49 AM
Patsy Madrid definately will NOT attract the attention of the grass root progressives of democratic and independent voters. Progressive voters are sick and tired of the good-old-boy party insiders and are desparate for candidates like Martin Heinrich. If, and appears likely Darren White is the GOP candidate, name recognition will NOT be a factor. Councilman Heinrich easily has as much name recognition as the the Bernalillo County sheriff could claim.
Party insiders such as Patsy and Eric Serna have repeatedly demonstrated that they cannot win based on name recognition only and Patsy as well as Michelle Grisham carry way too much negative baggage as well. Please Patsy, take a lucrative job in private law somewhere, or hold out for an appointed menial DoJ job in the next Democratic administration, but leave CD-1 to Martin Heinrich.
Posted by: Rodney | Oct 19, 2007 9:28:20 AM
In my humble opinion, Martin would welcome the challenge of any competition in the primary; his fundraising already speaks for itself and I've seen the enthusiasm that his candidacy has generated around NM CD1 - including the key non-urban areas like Moriarty. He's an incredibly hard worker and is not taking this primary for granted. He'll do fine against any competition thrown his way and a primary debate would only toughen his chops and give the public even more of a chance to see him in action.
I have absolute respect for Patricia Madrid (many of us worked our hearts out for her), but if folks want some great examples of the possibilities for Martin in the general election – they ought to check out some of the recent western elections such as those in Montana; a state much more conservative than New Mexico CD1 but nevertheless a “western” state where progressive leaders (Governor Brian Schweitzer and U.S. Senator John Tester), both with very similar to Martin’s own profile, were boldly elected amidst with much more conservative numbers than NM CD1.
Posted by: Javi | Oct 19, 2007 11:15:53 AM
Martin Heinrich is the most exciting candidate I have seen in my (admittedly short) career of paying attention to local politics. The man has the money (certainly, a good chunk and growing) and the charisma and the genuine talent to win the district. Patricia Madrid has the money, and had national support.
If national support could be aligned behind Heinrich, the district would be democratic, and the right democratic, with a decent break from the centrist policies of Chavez-mold democrats.
Posted by: | Oct 19, 2007 11:42:02 AM
I also agree that Patsy would surely be a gift to the Republican Party!
PATSY'S NEGATIVES WOULD BE THROUGH THE ROOF! HEY DC... POLL NEW MEXICANS! BETTER YET...POLL NM DEMOCRATS THEN SEE IF YOU STILL WANT HER TO RUN.
Posted by: Elect Heinrich | Oct 19, 2007 9:19:35 PM
Patsy did awful here in Torrance County and never had any popularity with folks in the area. On the other hand, everything I've heard from folks here in Torrance about Mr.Heinrich has been positive. No one in DC put faith in Dems like Tester when he ran for Senate. These same DC people need to rethink where Patsy lost and hopefully after that they would realize Martin Heinrich is a gift to the Democratic Party, especially in rural areas. Also, everyone I know that has heard Martin speak and answer their questions was looking foward to having Martin debate Heather and most recently Darren White. If Patsy jumps in, I would love to see him do a number on her in a primary debate.
Posted by: Torrance County Dem | Oct 19, 2007 9:27:12 PM
Patsy would be a disaster for NM-01 for all the reasons cited above and then some. Look, I like Rahm's combative style but I dont think he is smart. He is not strategic. He's like Bush, in a certain way: quick to come out swinging but slow to think of the long-term implications.
Heinrich is the guy we need. That is clear. Patsy needs to step aside for someone new, clean, smart and able to win.
Posted by: Taos Resident | Oct 22, 2007 9:56:20 AM
Patricia Madrid seems to have done more for this state than she has been appreciated for. As a relative newcomer to NM, but with family here for many years I have heard many positive things about her and what she has done for NM and it's citizens. Most of my political associates in TX have had nothing but favourable comments about Ms. Madrid. It is my understanding that even out of office she is tirelessly working behind the scenes toward improving the state of NM both for the present and for future generations.
Posted by: txtransplant | Oct 22, 2007 7:58:18 PM
