New Mexico: Hats in the Ring

Lots of rumors, articles and blog entries around town about who's gonna run for what in the New Mexico Dem 2008 Congressional election cycle. Let's look at some of the names being bandied about.

1st CD House Seat Held by Rep. Heather Wilson:

Martin Heinrich: So far, current Albuquerque City Councilor Heinrich is the first to unofficially enter the race. He's got support leaked by the Governor's camp, a campaign exploratory office and strong support from the environmental community and other sectors of the Dem grassroots in CD1. He's taken an unpaid leave of absence from his job as New Mexico Resource Trustee. He's clean as a whistle in the ethics department, is strongly against the Iraq war, yet is a staunch supporter of Second Amendment gun rights, and he's known as a fair and practical negotiator across the aisle. Heinrich is smart, articulate and personable. He attended this past Saturday's Dem SCC meeting talking up his chances.

Heinrich's downsides: He's untested in terms of going up against a strong opponent. It's unknown whether he has the grit, toughness and scrappiness to stand up to the kind of assaults that come with the territory in CD1, given Heather's tradition of using Rovian tactics to tear down opponents. We've never seen him debate a formidable competitor. We've never witnessed how he would respond to withering media attention. He's not Hispanic in a district where non-Hispanics haven't generated support adequate to win in the past.

Eric Griego: Now working as an assistant secretary at the NM Economic Development Department, Griego is a veteran of Albuquerque's often bruising municipal political scene. Eric led a number of mini-insurrections against the policies of Mayor Martin Chavez when he was on the City Council, and ran a proactive, populist, muscular campaign against Chavez in the last mayoral election. There's no doubt that he's a smart, scrappy, tough-minded, ethical candidate who can hold his own in debates and under the withering eye of heavy media attention. He has a robust following in the grassroots and has maintained a public presence via his previous column in the Alibi and his current one in the Albuquerque Tribune, as well as a 10-week stint hosting , a political radio talk show, during the last Legislative Session. Though he has expressed some interest in running for this seat, he hasn't yet done anything to actively build support.

Griego's downsides: He may be perceived as too "progressive" for the district. He made a fair amount of "enemies" by taking on Mayor Chavez so passionately. It's unknown how he would do in the fundraising department or in reaching out to more moderate elements of the Party.

Louis Caldera: The former UNM President, reportedly forced out by the Board of Regents last January, is being mentioned of late as a more "centrist" possibility for CD1. He expressed his interest in a run in a recent Albuquerque Tribune article and was making the rounds at last Saturday's Dem State Party meeting in Las Cruces. He currently is a law professor at UNM. Caldera is the son of Mexican immigrants and earned degrees from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and Harvard Law School. He also served as secretary of the Army under Clinton. His military-related background might give him a leg up in running against Wilson, who graduated from the Air Force Academy. He's a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former member of the California General Assembly. His resume is varied and extensive.

Caldera's downsides: He's never run for public office in New Mexico. He's not a native New Mexican and his relationships with some segments of the local community have reportedly been less than satisfying. It's unknown how he would handle himself in a combative race under pressure and much public scrutiny. He's fairly new to the state and hasn't established a significant core of political supporters. His past experience is mostly bureaucratic in nature. He's built no credibility with the Democratic grassroots.

Others: NM Reps Gerald Ortiz y Pino and Al Park, City Councilors Debbie O'Malley and Michael Cadigan, Bingaman staffer Terry Brunner and even Mayor Chavez have been mentioned as possible candidates in this race. However, none of them has gone on the record as being serious about about a run. Still, one or more of them could decide to enter the race if the others more actively pursuing a candidacy come up empty handed.

Note: New Mexico FBIHOP has a poll up asking your preference on the CD1 race. .

2nd CD House Seat Held by Rep. Steve Pearce:

Al Kissling: Kissling has announced he'll do a repeat of his run against Pearce in the 2006 race, where he got about 40% of the vote against the ultra-rightwing Pearce. A political newcomer in '06, the liberal Rev. Kissling has a varied and compelling background, and worked very hard to gain traction in the 3rd CD without much in the way of campaign funds or Party support. His strengths include his honesty, passion for the issues and endurance in grassroots campaigning.

Kissling's downsides: He's already lost once in the district. He hasn't shown any taste for raising the funds needed to run a serious race.

Bill McCamley: Just 29, McCamley is an ambitious up and comer on the Dem scene. He won his first time out as a candidate for Dona Ana County Commissioner, and also serves as the Executive Director of the New Mexico Rural Development Response Council. He has a strong interest in "smart growth." An energetic fresh face, McCamley has declared his candidacy early and can be expected to run a hard primary race against Kissling. He has appeal with younger voters and those concerned about how Dona Ana County grows.

McCamley's downsides: He's inexperienced and may be considered to be too young by older voters. It's unknown how he would handle media pressure and how much money he could raise for the race.

U. S. Senate Seat Held by Pete Domenici:

Most prominent Dems are waiting to move on this race until the fallout from the U.S. Attorney firing scandal becomes more defined, and questions about Domenici's health and mental status are resolved. In the meantime, two grassroots candidates viewed as outsiders have declared they'll be running in the Dem primary for this seat. A recent Albuquerque Tribune article reports on the backgrounds of announced contenders Leland Lehrman and Jim Hannan, both Santa Fe-area residents. The pair were courting Dems at Saturday's SCC meeting in Las Cruces. Lehrman is running on a hard left platform, while Hannan is focusing on such issues as preserving Social Security, securing universal healthcare and improving auto mileage standards. It's unclear how much support either could get from Party regulars at a preprimary convention or a primary election. The article also quotes attorney Geno Zamora as interested in a possible run. Zamora ran an unsuccessful but generally well received campaign for the Dem Attorney General slot against Gary King, who went on to win in the general. He recently launched a consulting firm, Zamora Strategic Advisors.

Perhaps most intriguing is the idea of State Auditor Hector Balderas running for this Senate seat. Although Balderas hasn't said anything about a run, his name was on the lips of many Dems last weekend in Las Cruces, as a potential candidate for either the Senate or the CD1 Congressional seat. Over the course of his relatively short political career, first as a NM Rep from Wagon Mound, and now as State Auditor, Balderas has built a big buzz among Dems as being the Real Thing in terms of smarts, credibility, poise and top-notch ethics. He's very well liked and respected among Dems in many sectors of the Party, and his future in politics is viewed as bright indeed.

Balderas gave a well-received speech at Saturday's SCC meeting that touched on a number of foreign policy issues, using his recent trip to Pakistan as a jumping off point. He came off as mature, serious and seasoned beyond his years. Hector is definitely one to watch, if not for this election cycle, then certainly for future contests.

Bottom line on the Senate race -- still too early to know how the field will shake out. What we do know is that Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez most likely won't be a part of it. He came out early as supporting another run by Domenici, stating that Pete has his vote -- not a good way to garner rank and file Dem support for future political ambitions. Of course Chavez could conceivably enter the race if Domenici pulls out, but I think his very public support for Pete would be a definite downer for most Dem primary voters.

My guess is he'll stick with a primary run for Governor against , as he's also expressed his distaste for running for Congress. He's already busy raising money under an exploratory committee called Marty Chavez for New Mexico. Again, I think his past alliances with Republicans will make a win against Denish difficult at best. If there's anyone who has strong support across the board in core Dem political circles, it's Diane Denish.