Madrid Up 10 Points Over Wilson in Reuters Poll

Wow. According to the latest Zogby/Reuters poll:

NEW MEXICO 1 - Five-term Republican Rep. Heather Wilson trails Democrat Patricia Madrid 50-40 percent in this Albuquerque-based swing district.

...Democrats lead Republicans in 11 of 15 crucial races in the November 7 election to decide which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives. President George W. Bush's Republicans now hold a 15-seat advantage over Democrats. The polls of at least 500 likely voters in each district have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The question: Is this an outlier poll or have the numbers of those who will vote for Madrid really jumped that much?

The polling was done during the period of Sept. 25 to Oct. 2, which included three days of the unfolding Mark Foley scandal and the release of Bob Woodward's new book, State of Denial, which is highly critical of the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq occupation. Whatever the accuracy of these results, there does seem to be a strong trend toward Democratic candidates as we move closer to election day:

"This is a dismal showing for Republicans," pollster John Zogby said. "Republicans ought to be very, very nervous."

... "It's not just Mark Foley, but also what did the speaker know and when did he know it, and the House leadership, what did they know?" Zogby said. "This could turn into a freefall for Republicans."

I tend to think the the lastest local Journal poll showing a dead even race is probably more accurate, given Brian Sanderoff's experience in the district, but this jump may well be indicative of a trend upward for Madrid and other Dem candidates as the Republicans suffer from an onslaught of negative news on almost every front, from the Iraq war to FoleyGate.

Speaking of NM-01 polling this year and what it's telling us, be sure to check out this excellent analysis provided at local blog NM FBIHOP.