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Sunday, October 22, 2006
10/22/06 Journal Poll Results: Madrid Up by 3 Points, Upward Trend Continues
The campaign of Dem challenger Patricia Madrid is definitely picking up steam. Although recent polls vary as to the percentage by which Madrid is besting Wilson, all of them show Madrid in the lead. According to the latest Albuquerque Journal poll on the NM-01 congressional race:
Dem challanger Patricia Madrid: 45%
Republican incumbent Heather Wilson: 42%
Undecided: 9%
Neither: 4%
M.O.E. Plus or minus 4.4%
Surveyed October 17-19, 2006
503 likely voters
Brian Sanderoff's Research and Polling
Over the time period of the three Journal polls, Madrid picked up points while Wilson lost support:
Journal Poll conducted August 25-31: Madrid 42%, Wilson 45%
Journal Poll conducted Sept. 25-28: Madrid 44%, Wilson 44%
Journal Poll conducted Oct. 17-19: Madrid 45%, Wilson 42%
According to the Journal article:
The Journal poll also found that the recent U.S. House scandal, involving now-resigned Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., and his electronic messages to teenage pages, is playing a role in the race.
Although 85 percent of the 1st District voters polled said the scandal won't affect their vote, 12 percent said it has made them more likely to vote for Madrid. Three percent said the scandal made them more likely to vote for Wilson.
"There may be something historic happening here," Sanderoff said of the race overall. He has been polling in 1st Congressional District contests for two decades and can't recall a time when a Democratic challenger has led a general election race. No Democrat has won the district since its establishment in 1968.
Sanderoff and longtime state political watcher F. Chris Garcia, a University of New Mexico political science professor emeritus, said the Iraq war— which is seen by an increasing number of Americans as a big mistake— probably was a big factor in the new poll results.
Perhaps most ominous for Wilson's chances, she got the support of only 11% of Democrats in this poll. She had the same 11% of Dem votes in the Journal's August poll, down from 35% in their August survey. According to most experts, she would need at least 25% of Dem votes to win because there are about 39,000 more registered Dems in the district than Repubs. And her support among Hispanics is falling too, from 35% in the Journal's first poll to only 20% in the latest.
Bottom line: Vote and Volunteer!
The big mo is increasingly on the Madrid side, but the race is still close and anything can happen during the next 16 days. All the more reason to vote early and get all your friends and family to do the same. Getting out the Dem vote in this election is still priority number one. Volunteer to help!
Madrid Campaign Main Office
Call 242-6000
200 Oak St. NE #4
Albuquerque, NM 87106Madrid Campaign South Valley Office
Call 452-2006
1220 Isleta Blvd. SW
Albuquerque, NM 87105
October 22, 2006 at 11:13 AM in Candidates & Races | Permalink
Comments
So here I am in the break room at my job, the TV on a local channel, and almost all the commercials are campaign ads. That's one thing. Predictably, most of these ads are for the District 1 seat in Congress... that is to say for/against Wilson/Madrid.
Then I keep seeing ones accusing Madrid of attack ads... in fact, one such ad just got done playing. The pot's calling the kettle black, I guess... except of course that the first attack ad, and indeed the majority of attack ads I've seen are from Wilson against Madrid. "No wonder Madrid is running a negative campaign." BS... doesn't answer why Wilson is running a campaign that is nothing if not negative. Of course, we know the answer to it... Wilson knows her job is at high risk just now because she decided to represent Bush instead of those she was elected to represent.
Yeah, I'm just a bit ticked and needed to vent. I'll be glad when I get an opportunity to do early voting.
Oh- anyone else think it's just hilarious that Wilson is trying to make the NSA thing, the thing that quite likely is what damned her in the first place, into one of her platforms?
Posted by: | Oct 22, 2006 10:36:17 PM
I think Brian Sanderoff from Research and Polling lacks Crediblity. He is manufacturing opinions rather then reflecting it. If the race is statistically tied how come I haven't seen more then 3 damn Wilson yard signs? The ABQ Journal, KOAT, KOB, KRQE need to be brought to justice for their propaganda and bigtime lies!
Heather Wilson Lying About Iraq, Torture, War!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3a1ILIIElJY
Congress Critter Crying about Janet Jackson's Breast!
Well, a lot of Wilson's supporters don't support her as strongly as they used to, and that may explain the lower number of yard signs.
Anyway, I've just sent another letter to the Alibi- an open letter to Heather Wilson. We'll see if it gets published... seems that I have a pretty good streak going on that, though.
Posted by: | Oct 23, 2006 8:21:55 AM
I agree with Randall above -- Wilson supporters and Republicans in general don't seem to be very enthused about this election.
Not to say this will be easy, we still need to make sure we get as many Dems as possible out to vote.
Posted by: | Oct 23, 2006 11:04:47 AM
It is pretty crazy that Heather is using the NSA wiretapping as a plus when all she did was help Bush cover up a crime. Grasping at more straws. Maybe she should start bragging that she voted for the bill that removed our right of habeas corpus too - hooray!
Posted by: Red or Green | Oct 23, 2006 5:20:58 PM
The sad thing is that after talking to a few people about the presidential election, I think that if everyone voted who was anti-Bush and eligible to vote, Kerry would be the president now. The mentality we need to fight against is "it's just one vote." That election was by a pretty narrow margin.
Posted by: | Oct 24, 2006 4:34:05 PM
