ABQ Journal Poll: Madrid-Wilson Squeaker (Plus Other Results)

The Albuquerque Journal (subscription required) released the results of its poll yesterday on the NM-01 congressional race between Republican incumbent Heather Wilson and Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid. With results similar to the latest internal polling from the Madrid campaign, this race is clearly still a toss-up. With the Journal poll's margin of error at 4.8 points, this race is still a statistical dead heat and voter turnout could be a major factor in who takes the seat. According to the Journal:

Democrat Patricia Madrid is running a close race against incumbent Rep. Heather Wilson in the midst of an already heavy advertising war in the 1st Congressional District.

A Journal poll of 410 registered District 1 voters found Wilson, a Republican seeking her fifth full term, with the support of 45 percent of respondents. Madrid, the second-term state attorney general, had 42 percent.

Ten percent of the registered voters, who said they are likely to vote in the general election on Nov. 7, were undecided. The rest said they didn't intend to vote for either.

The margin of error for the Aug. 25-31 survey by Research & Polling Inc. is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

"It is, absolutely, anybody's race," said longtime state political watcher and University of New Mexico political science professor emeritus F. Chris Garcia. "It has major national implications. It was billed early on as one of the races to watch— and it is living up to its billing.

"When a challenger . . is within a few percentage points, that is seen as very encouraging to the challenger's camp," Garcia said.

... Wilson, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, has been a longtime backer of the U.S. military involvement in Iraq while Madrid has called for a quick-turnaround exit plan. And Sanderoff said what takes place in Iraq in the coming two months— along with the rise or fall of Bush's approval ratings— could have a big impact on the outcome of the Wilson-Madrid contest.

"The mood of the nation is an important barometer in influencing the outcome of congressional races," Sanderoff said.

"What we're looking at here is more than just Heather Wilson and Patricia Madrid," he said.

Clearly, IF we can achieve a strong turnout of Dem voters on November 7th, we can get Patricia Madrid elected. With unmotivated Repubs bummed over Bush's failures and diving poll numbers, and with Dem Bill Richardson shaping up to swamp Repub challenger John Dendahl, I'm guessing their turnout will well be weak. The question is, are Democrats sufficiently motivated to come out and vote in large numbers in New Mexico's first district? Is the Madrid campaign's GOTV effort up to the challenge of getting a big turnout of Dems?

This seat could well spell the difference between a continuation of Repub rule in the House of Reps and a Dem takeover, with Nancy Pelosi slated to take over as the first female Speaker of the House. Are you motivated yet? Then show it: https://madridforcongress.org/

Journal Polling on Other Races

Congress NM-02:
Steve Pearce (R-Incumbent): 54%
Al Kissling (D): 29%

Congress NM-03:
Tom Udall (D-Incumbent): 71%
Ron Dolin (R): 18%

NM Senate:
Jeff Bingaman (D-Incumbent): 62%
Allen McCulloch (R): 23%

From a Monday Journal article:

NM Governor:
Bill Richardson (D-Incumbent): 57%
John Dendahl (R): 28%

From another Monday Journal article:

NM Treasurer (open seat):
James B. Lewis (D): 40%
Demesia Padilla (R): 26%