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Monday, October 18, 2004
Newspaper Endorsements Trending Toward Kerry
The Kerry website has a detailed summary of newspapers that have endorsed him, including a number of publications that supported Bush last time around. You can read the editorials from each of them. Yesterday, the staunchly conservative Tampa Tribune editorialized that they could not endorse Bush this election, despite their having endorsed Republican presidential candidates since 1952 with only one exception. Check it out:
Why We Cannot Endorse President Bush For Re-Election
Published: Oct 17, 2004, Tampa Tribune
We find ourselves in a position unimaginable four years ago when we strongly endorsed for president a fiscal conservative and "moderate man of mainstream convictions'' who promised to wield military muscle only as a last resort and to resist the lure of "nation building.'' We find ourselves deeply conflicted today about the presidential race, skeptical of the promises and positions of Sen. John Kerry and disappointed by the performance of President George W. Bush.
As stewards of the Tribune's editorial voice, we find it unimaginable to not be lending our voice to the chorus of conservative-leaning newspapers endorsing the president's re-election. We had fully expected to stand with Bush, whom we endorsed in 2000 because his politics generally reflected ours: a strong military, fiscal conservatism, personal responsibility and small government. We knew him to be a popular governor of Texas who fought for lower taxes, less government and a pro-business constitution.
But we are unable to endorse President Bush for re-election because of his mishandling of the war in Iraq, his record deficit spending, his assault on open government and his failed promise to be a "uniter not a divider'' within the United States and the world.
Click here for the entire editorial.
CBS Market Reports says this:
Two weeks before the presidential election, Sen. John Kerry is leading President George Bush in newspaper endorsements by a margin of 45 to 30, according to Editor & Publisher. The trade publication reported that Kerry had added at least 30 endorsements over the weekend as Bush picked up 17.
"Kerry has more large papers on his side, maintaining his circulation edge at nearly 3-1: approximately 8.7 million to 3.3 million," Editor & Publisher said. Of note, Kerry won the approval of the influential New York Times on Sunday.
In addition, Editor & Publisher pointed out, Kerry's new newspaper supporters included five dailies that had supported Bush in the 2000 election, when he defeated Vice President Al Gore: the Bradenton (Fla.) Herald; the Daily Camera in Boulder, Colo.; the Columbia (Mo.) Tribune; the Daily-Herald, published in Arlington Heights, Ill.; and the Muskegon (Mich.) Chronicle.
Zogby Shows Kerry Trend
Meanwhile, the Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll shows this trend towards Kerry:
10/15: Bush 48, Kerry 44
10/16: Bush 48, Kerry 44
10/17: Bush 46, Kerry 44
10/18: Bush 45, Kerry 45
(Photo Credit: Kerry-Edwards 2004, Inc. from Sharon Farmer)
October 18, 2004 at 11:20 AM in Candidates & Races, Media | Permalink
Comments
Ignore the polls. Yogby is one of the best in the nation, but they are all inaccurate. I did my PhD work at the University of New Mexico, specializing in polling and public opinion.
In the Zogby poll noted here, the firm interviewed about 1,200 individuals nationally. At least another 1,200 people they asked to interview REFUSED, as they are too busy, not interested or not willing to talk to an interviewer over the telephone. For polls to be accurate, they must be random. With refusals equal to the number of completed interviews, the requirement of randomness cannot be met.
Second, these polls miss many Democrats. Democrats are more likely to work jobs at non-traditional hours, work two jobs or to be "not at home" during the three-day calling period. This last poll was conducted Oct. 15-17. What kind of people are home Friday night, Saturday morning and Sunday evening? People who generally vote Republican!
Third, it is against the law to contact people on cellphones. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to only have one phone. If they have a cellphone, they will not have a landline. They are missed by the pollsters.
Fourth, polls cannot reach most young people, particularly students. The 18-24 cohort leans heavily Democratic as well. These people move a lot, change phone numbers frequently and are rarely at home.
Fifth, the interviewers talk to one person in a household. The father might prefer Bush, yet the wife may prefer Kerry. Polls cannot account for this.
Finally, these polls are "national," but the election will be decided in the states. As we saw in Election 2000, Al Gore won the "national vote," yet he lost the critical states.
If these polls are so inaccurate, why do so many firms, newspapers and media outlets use them? People find them entertaining. They do not realize they are inaccurate. And, nobody will hold them accountable after the election!
There is ONLY one vote now that matters -- YOURS. In addition, do more than simply vote -- get your friends and family to the polls. John Kerry is leading by 8-10 points at this time. Do you truly think a majority of Americans support the failed and untruthful policies of George W. Bush?
My prediction: John Kerry in a landslide.
Posted by: Scott Goold | Oct 18, 2004 1:48:20 PM
I agree with you on the polls and their inaccuracy, particularly in counting Dem voters. That's why I find this trend particularly hopeful. Even given all the negatives, the numbers are falling Kerry's way!
I don't know if I'm feeling a Kerry landslide, but I think he'll win with a significant margin. Our GOTV is gonna swamp the efforts of Repubs if we all participate! All the more reason to vote early and do everything we can to help GOTV. Whether it's with the Kerry or Romero campaigns, MoveOn, ACT or other organizations!
Posted by: barb in albq | Oct 18, 2004 3:10:08 PM
